Thursday, September 24, 2015

Tamasha To Hit Movie Theatres November 27



It's feeling like a cross between the critically-acclaimed Rockstar -- also directed by Imtiaz Ali and scored by A.R. Rahman -- and Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani, the 2013 blockbuster movie that starred the former lovebirds.

We'll find out in a few weeks.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

2014: The Year in Review (Q4)

2014: The Year in Review (Q3)

July: How to live 3 years more. Why Sithanen should be dumped again. World Cup won by almost a third of host countries.

August: Stray dogs to work for food. Mrs. Doubtfire is deadLocal FB pages with most likes. Ramgoolam has no match, for now.

September: Apple returns to Flint, 30 years after. Loch Ness Monster may need new travel documents. Granny 1, Leopard 0. Labour/MMM alliance dangerous.

Read the review for Q1, Q2 and Q4.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

10 Years of Blogging

Completed yesterday. The first post was a note on a statement -- Setting the Stage For Robust Growth  -- made by the then Minister of Finance. The whole thing actually started a short while after a friend did two things: she first asked me why I didn't blog -- given that I was so opinionated -- and then provided me with the url for a couple of blogging services. I eventually settled for blogger and wrote a few relatively long pieces on The Jag!.

As these -- which were essentially a series of short posts combined together -- were taking way too long to my liking I eventually set up Kozelidir with a couple of friends for shorter ones. All kinds of strict guidelines were enforced and these did cause some friction leading some of the initial collaborators to eventually set up their own blogs. Some who were invited never contributed anything and eventually confessed that 'pa fasil sa nivo angle la'.

Many of the posts were also published in the Forum page of Le Mauricien: who said that journalists can't have good taste? Or be addicted to writing that's not too poor?

It's been a lot of work. But definitely a lot of fun too. And the learning has never stopped.

Stay tuned for more!

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Why Labour Lost The Last Municipal Elections

Because it didn't take part in them. Although Arvin Boolell did tell us at one point in time that a list of candidates was almost ready. That was just before Navin Ramgoolam stormed into a critical meeting that would eventually have given voters -- especially labourites -- a lot more choice on the ballot paper. Ramgoolam essentially said that the governing parties had set a trap and Labour should avoid it. Understand by that that Arvin doesn't have the right profile. Mamou Ramgoolam also argued that the Labour Party didn't have the money to go into these elections as it didn't have access to its bank accounts.

That's kind of strange when you realise, for example, that the number of years that Dr. Boolell and Dr. Ramgoolam have been in politics add up to more than 50 years. Besides supporters of the Labour Party would certainly have pitched in one way or another to back any good ideas as they have been doing for almost eight decades now. Talking about a trap is also kind of hilarious when you recall what Ramgoolam, Berenger and Sithanen tried to do last December with an electoral reform that was both stupid -- as Mr. 40% + 40% = 80% confessed -- and dangerous. Mr. Bean who is celebrating his silver jubilee this year should definitely watch out for the competition.

And why did Labour lose the 2014 General Elections? Too much money? Profiles that are too perfect? Math skills that are otherworldly?

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Kozelidir Turns 007

Yep, it's 7 years since we published our first post. 1,272 have appeared since then -- this one included. Along with 4,142 comments. August 23, by the way, is the date when Mount Vesuvius started rumbling and eventually destroyed Pompeii. It is also the start of the battle of Stalingrad: one very bloody war.

It's been a lot fun blogging in here. And reading your comments. Which have helped to connect a lot of interesting dots.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Journalist Belittles 10-Billion-Rupee Economy



So our Rs10 billion 1982-economy would be about the size of some companies in the latest Top 100 list? And that would be proof that the economy was not going well at all? Or? One problem with this argument is that we're talking about 1982 rupees here. If we assume that average inflation has been about 5% since then Rs10 billion in 1982 would now be worth about Rs50 billion. Assume that inflation has been 7% instead and you get a Rs93 billion economy in aaj ki paisa. Which is three times more than the turnover of the current leader of the Top 100 companies.

16% unemployment is also not so bad given the devastating effects of cyclones in the 1970s -- Claudette for instance sent Mauritius into a depression -- and that we were a left-for-dead country.

Monday, August 17, 2015

5-Year Olds To Start School With Assessment

To see if they're ready. And if they're not the school will wait for them to be ready. That's what the Minister of Education told a radio station she plans of doing soon. There are at least two problems with this idea. One is how long is the school going to wait? And two parents -- knowing that there is an evaluation -- will start preparing their children for it. Probably a good one to one-and-half years before the test. So we're looking at toddlers taking private tuition.

Not good. Because our school system already takes away way too much of the light that each person is born with. And produces way too many obese parrots.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Four Reasons Top Taxes Are Too Low

One is obviously the low growth rates that Mauritius has clipped for the past few years: indeed 2015 is looking to be the 5th consecutive year that it will be under 4%. I don't think this has ever happened. At least not since independence. I am sure you remember that one bean-counter promised Bretton Woods-inspired robust average growth of 8% back in 2005. Which was the reason the tax structure was flattened.

Two is that tax receipts have literally stayed flat in real terms over the last 12 months. Indeed the MRA disclosed that it collected only 4% more in the last fiscal year. Which roughly matches the increase in the general level of prices. We've alluded to that before.

Three the MCCI said that more than a third of the businesses it surveyed recently are complaining that Government is not doing enough to improve their businesses. Well, with the silly flat tax Government has ensured that it would have less resources -- and the private sector would have more -- to drive the economy. If nothing much has happened and is going to happen Government should raise top taxes to move Mauritius forward. If we don't want to keep on waiting for Godot.

Finally the flat tax has increased inequality tremendously. You just need to compare the number of people thrown into poverty after Navin Ramgoolam's first and second mandate. We can also have a look at how real disposable income has changed for the richest and poorest 10% of our households for the same periods. That's pretty bad for our social fabric and for better economic growth.

There is of course another reason why top taxes should increase.

Friday, August 7, 2015

Ex-Pak Agent Says 26/11 Hatched in Pakistan

Tariq Khosa, former head of the Pakistani Federal Investigating Agency, made this explosive revelation and provided detailed facts to support it a few days ago. 164 people died in the November 2008 Mumbai attacks including our own CEO of SBM, Chaitlall Gunness. Mr. Khosa ends his article by asking if Pakistanis were "as a nation prepared to muster the courage to face uncomfortable truths and combat the demons of militancy that haunt our land? That is the question!"

Good question when one recalls the recent Peshawar massacre where 132 schoolchildren lost their lives.

Thursday, August 6, 2015

US Companies To Disclose Pay Ratios in 2017

So has decided the Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. There is some flexibility in the way this can be computed but you will have to agree that the thrust is good given how pay packets have become disconnected from actual performance and talent.

The Indian Ocean Tiger should jump on the bandwagon. ASAP.

Monday, August 3, 2015

Did Etihad Airways Receive Subsidies?

No according to a former CEO of MK who works for the Gulf airline. Yes according to a group of American airlines who put governmental help dished out to Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad at $42 billion. Essentially by adding interest-free loans, capital injections, benefits of government guarantees, absorption of fuel-hedging losses and low airport charges.

A couple of months ago The Wall Street Journal mentioned that Eithad had sent a report to the US authorities acknowledging help of a little over $14 billion from its government. Some of that help was reported by the Australian Financial Review back in May 2014.

So I guess -- for our national strategic interest -- we should be very careful not to get mesmerized a bit too quickly. Air Mauritius has a brilliant future if it is allowed to operate on strong bases of meritocracy.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

New Top 10 Reasons why Mauritius IS the Best Managed Country in the World

No. 10. “Soit li ‘carry on’ dans la serenite, soit li pran so decision… d’ici la fin la semaine” – but no ultimatum was given – and everyone in the cabinet had an intellect level with known limits, except one.

No. 9. “Ca ministere-la ti capave faire 10 fois, 100 fois plis” – Does it not mean that the PM is satisfied between 1% and 10% by the work carried out by this particular ministry? Can we please have his level of satisfaction for the other ministries?

No. 8. “Zotte mange dans ene l’assiette et zotte faire malpropre dans ca meme l’assiette-la...” -- Surgeon General’s warning: Adding more terms to this sequence or reversing its order may cause serious damage to your health. Please do not try this at home without adult supervision.

No. 7. Dragons to replace koalas as the world’s cutest animals. And Mauritius subscribes to the one-koala policy.

No. 6. In an unconfirmed report, there are apparently plans for Le Reduit to be transformed into a giant nursery to recoup the cost of the renovation.

No. 5. 2 ships bang into one another in the harbour and you learn about it from the Prime Minister and neither from our coast guards nor port master – and people have the nerve to say that our institutions are not working!!!

No. 4. “Chef d’oeuvre de budget” to be hung at the Louvre instead of La Joconde.

No. 3. “The Medpoint accord was crafted in the interest of the country” – No kidding, I thought it was crafted in the interest of 3 people with 2 from the same family.

No. 2. The nation is divided as to whether the PM would disguise himself as a drag queen if he were to be invited to an evening hosted by the local gay community.

And the No. 1 reason why Mauritius is the best managed country in the world is

No. 1. July. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months for Mr. Berenger to organise General Elections. The others are June, January, September, April, November, May, March, October, December, August and February – with apologies from Mark Twain.

This was written end of May 2005. Recall that there were general elections the following July 3rd. You will need to beam yourself back to this period to understand a few of the reasons. Don't think this ever got published.

10 More Reasons why Mauritius IS the Best Managed Country in the World

No. 10. We are very aware that the last Mega-Tsunami occurred next door (Reunion Island) some 4,000 years ago.

No. 9. It’s OK to learn about cyclones on TV or Radio – it’s definitely not to learn about deadly Tsunamis from CNN.

No. 8. The SIDS conference took place as initially planned between August 30th and September 3rd 2004.

No. 7. The first three (militant?) budgets of the current government were unfortunately not understood by many because the presentations were not subtitled.

No. 6. Smart ideas and vision replaced by hollow statements such as “mood ek ambiance extraaaaaaaaaordinaire”.

No. 5. Meritocracy has been replaced by something way better – Mediocracy.

No. 4. Stray dogs are helping as much as they can with takeoffs and landings at Plaisance Airport.

No. 3. Traffic towards Port-Louis was wonderfully fluid (especially if you don’t have a TV/DVD in your car) on the first day of the SIDS conference. It’s however a mystery to many why school resumption was postponed by a whole week.

No. 2. “Riot panne fer pu donne biberon”. Ok fine. What about changing diapers?

And the No. 1 reason why Mauritius is the best managed country in the world is

No. 1. According to an unconfirmed report the endangered species have suggested that the controversial highway go through the nonsense hub (a recently renovated building in Port-Louis) instead. It has not yet been determined what percentage of these species are fanatics.

This was actually written in January 2005 which was a mere couple of weeks after the deadly South Asian Tsunami. You can forget about this fact if you want to feel as if you just ate funny mushrooms. Click the "Best managed country in the world" label for more context.

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Judging the Overall Quality of A Country's Policies

A shortcut is to chart the value of its currency over a couple of decades. And if we compare the latter to the level of exports -- let's say for Mauritius and Singapore -- we get an indication of the strength of the local entrepreneurial fibre. Of course we can use our good old policy matrix. Or have a look at the land use. Or the type of bets that are made and at what cost. Traffic congestion is also a pretty good indicator (Istanbul has the world's worst traffic). And how can we forget fiscal policy?

So I guess we can gauge the DNA of a country pretty fast, eh?

Will Fassbender Make A Good Steve Jobs?



Because the Slumdog Millionaire director Danny Boyle has picked him for the iBio-based movie which comes out on October 9. Mr. Fassbender might be a good actor but he doesn't look like the Californian hi-tech swami. At all. When I was watching the trailer I thought Boyle might as well have picked Arnold Schwarzenegger. Which was one of the choices on gizmodo.

I would personally have picked Noah Wyle -- he did a pretty good job playing Steve before -- or Keanu Reeves. An edgy actor like Bale would have been good too but he backed down. Daniel Day-Lewis would have been a great choice.

Sunday, June 28, 2015

3 Icons Die in Their Nineties



The first one is Patrick Macnee who played the suave character of John Steed in The Avengers which aired for the first time in the early 1960s. And was very popular in Mauritius in the 1970s. Mr. Macnee passed away on June 25 in California at 93.

Our second icon is none other than -- please watch with a fog light, garlic or a cross coz u never know -- Count Dracula aka Christopher Lee. Man, did he look scary on TV! Mr. Lee who also played Saruman -- and was told to consider playing 007 -- in the Lord of the Rings died on June 7th at 93 too.

Finally our last nonagenerian is Edmond Malinvaud a household name for anyone who has done a fair bit of econometrics. His magnum opus, Methodes statistiques de l'econometrie, was not the easiest book to read but many considered the time spent mastering at least a few parts of it a valuable investment. That was especially true when the book came out in the 1960s. Mr. Malinvaud whom I had the good fortune of meeting passed away on March 7 at 91.