Happy International Fact-checking Day!

Fact-checking is the lifeblood of democracies. So here's a mega transfusion for the Mauritian democracy.

Fact-checking Sithanen.

Fact-checking Subron.

Fact-checking Navin.

Fact-checking SAJ on a popular topic.

Fact-checking Pravind on the tram.

Fact-checking Arvin.

Fact-checking Berenger on two important issues.

Fact-checking playlist.

Fact-checking gem to download on your Apple device.

Who Served As Labour Party General Secretary the Longest?

When Kalyanee Juggoo resigned as General Secretary of the Mauritius Labour Party recently Arvin Boolell wondered if the 13 years she had served in that position wasn't the longest. We knew she didn't but went to find out. 

Five Key Ingredients For a Vibrant Democracy

1. First-past-the-post (FPTP) system to have strong and stable governments that form fast after general elections and don’t collapse after partner(s) leave winning alliance. Temporary lopsided results we got a few times can be mitigated with prudent tweak without making bloated Parliament bigger or suppressing dissent with stupid anti-defection legislation. 

2. Progressive taxation (PT) and top tax rates at the right level (35%) instead of a ruinous flat tax (FT) of 15% for better economic growth and distribution after savings culture resuscitated, good drains, 24/7 water, halving of road fatalities fast, preservation of our world-famous views and harmony and respect of nature.

3. Recall elections (RE) to get rid of incompetent politicians within months and not five years. Cheap. Only Rs30m. The cost of a by-election. Expect better behaviour after we use it a couple of times. Think of it as excellent meksin laryaz. 

4. Statute referendums (SR) to reverse toxic policies or anti-patriotic ones and to get rid of Presidents. Relatively cheap. Rs300m. Would have prevented Rs300bn government revenue shortfall and GDP gap of Rs1.5tn at the end of 2018. And tense celebrations of Mauritius@50.  

5. Initiated constitutional amendment (ICA) to get rid of the BLS, allow kreol in our Parliament, prevent holders of constitutional posts from leaving with hefty benefits in all cases and impose term limits on PM and other important posts.

Second ingredient will allow us to resume a much better development path like between 1968 and 2005. Ingredients three and four will improve the situation further and will be infinitely better than what we’ve experienced after ultra liberal policies were implemented thirteen years ago. Their combined use may make ICA redundant as common sense would have made an interesting return. 

Berenger (PB), Ramgoolam (NR), Jugnauth (PJ), Sithanen (RS), Subron (AS) and Boolell want proportional representation (PR) to push us into an autocracy. That’s a situation where they implement toxic policies and it’s a lot harder to keep them out of parliament. But it’s wonderful for political dynasties. We don’t want this. 

Sithanen Flat Tax Fuels More Street Protests

This time it was in Curepipe. Citizens were outraged that they've been without running water for up to two weeks. But what else could we expect when regressive tax policies have crippled government so much that it can't even pay for its own eye-hospital? And things will get worse as long as we remain on the wrong side of compounding. Boolell was there trying to score some cheap points -- the government revenue shortfall between 2005 and 2014 was big enough to change the 1,600km of leaking pipes at least five times over.

24/7 water is unlikely to happen when Collendavelloo completes his first term as Minister in the next few months. This is kind of obvious. See, when he took over about 45% of households enjoyed an all-day supply and this week he said it had reached 70%. So if it took 4 years to increase the percentage of subscribers getting round-the-clock water by 25 percentage points (by probably changing around 730km of leaking pipes) it will surely take more than a year to add the last 30% subscribers. Even if the Bagatelle dam comes into operation soon. In fact on the current trajectory 24/7 is not happening before the 2024 election year. Which is a good reason to put as much pressure as possible on government so it brings back some sanity to our tax structure. Because we surely don’t want 400,000 people to have water problems for another 4-5 years.

Public debate on this matter can also be enhanced if the Minister puts at least three very basic series of data on the CWA's website (the last annual report available there is for 2015). These are the length of the water network at the end of each year and the length and cost of pipes laid each year since the end of 1967. 

Non Arvin, Kann Se Pa Nu Serengeti

Non, non, non. Kann se pa nu Serengeti. Li dan Serengeti. Mo fek truv li. Alalila.

After Navin Leaves

The party which turns 82 today will have to go back and have a good look at its glorious past. Especially the one which ended in June 1982. The one which played the biggest role in improving the lot of the many by rolling out our welfare state. The party which was the driving force behind the independence movement. The one who proved Meade wrong. The great party who was against proportional representation and party lists. Or double candidacies.

But don't count on Arvin to do that. He's no different from Navin who not only actively revised the history of the LP when he was in power but invents new Party DNA when he's not. The LP might not be able to do this for some time. That's OK as voters are becoming increasingly sophisticated and they will eventually get what Mauritius needs.

Kuma U Pale Ramgoolam Inpresyone?

Ala enn parti intervansyon Sithanen dan konferans de pres ki Ptr finn organize mardi le 19 desam. Li pe esplike ki tiena 90 bwat pu 13 polling station dan eleksyon parsyel. Apre linn atard li lor 30 counting classes. "Dan 3 nu kandida inn gayne par plis ki 50% vot MMM." Bon etan done ki nu, bann elekter, pena lespri kuma Ramgoolam abitye dir nu bizin rekonesan ki Sithanen finn esplike nu ki sa ve dir. Bolo Doctor Sahab. "Sa ki sa ve dir pu sak 2 vot ki MMM inn gayne nu kandida finn gayne trrrwwwwaaaaahhhh vot dan 3 counting room." Pann konpran mem? Mosi parey. Enn sans Dr. TINAnen la mem. Ekzamp nimero 2. "Dan 18 counting room, nu kandida finn bat kandida MMM par 135% se ta dir nunn gayn plis ki 2 fwa vot MMM. Pu sak 2 vot ki MMM inn gayne nu kandida finn gayn 4.7 vot." Ayo pann konpran kot linn gayn sa 4.7 la.

"Plis ki 2 fwa." Sa but la monn resi konpran. 2x2 = 4 ek 4.7 pli gran ki 4. Me 4.7 la kot sorti? Ah gran mersi enn lot lekzamp pe vini. "Dan 7 counting room, nunn bat kandida MMM par 235%." Ki sa ve dir sa? "Sa ki sa ve dir ki Arvin Boolell inn gayn 3 fwa plis vot ki Nita Juddoo." "Sa ve dir pu sak 2 vot MMM Arvin Boolell fin gayn 6.7 vot pu li." Pu li? Tchombo! Bann lezot vot ki linn gayne la pa pu li? Ein akoz sa mem li ti pe dir se enn vot pu Moris sipaki. "E anfin dan 2 room Arvin Boolell finn bat Nita Juddoo par trrwaaahhhhhh san katrovin pursan. Setadir 4 fwa plis vot ki Nita." "Setadir pu sak de vot MMM Arvin Boolell inn gayn 9 vot."

Ayo dokter nu pa sir nun konpran. Mo panse u bizin donn ankor inpe lekzamp. Kifer u pa pran eleksyon zeneral desam 2014 ek anu dir u kumans par sirkonskripsyon no. 13? Si u ti kav esplik sa zafer 40+40=80 la usi ti pu top.

81% Didn't Vote For Boolell

More people abstained than voted for Arvin Boolell on Sunday. That's not all. Another 35.7% who voted didn't vote for him. 81% is a record for at least the last four by-elections held on the island of Mauritius. In fact for the three other by-elections the percentage who didn't vote for the winning candidate was in quite a narrow range of a little over 1%. 

Pravind Jugnauth -- 61.5% in 2009 in no. 8

Rajesh Jeetah -- 60.5% in 2003 in no. 7

Xavier-Luc Duval -- 61.6% in 1999 in no. 20

The results of Sunday's voting is interesting in a number of other ways. We'll have another look soon.

Mauritius, Here's The Plan

BR/QB elects Jack Bizlall on Sunday and we get a progressive voice in Parliament very soon. Then we identify 62 good candidates for 2019 who will raise the level of debate in our National Assembly by a lot. That shouldn't be too difficult to do when we know what has been going on there. Ramgoolam, Sithanen, Jugnauth, Collendavelloo, Boolell, Berenger, Subron, Duval, Soodhun and many others are definitely not on this list.

Sithanen Worried About Inequality

That was at a LP rally about a week ago. That's kind of funny when we look at his track record. The household budget survey (HBS) of 95/96 -- he was the finance minister for most of the 5-year period covered -- tells us that the poorest 10% families saw their share of GDP decrease by 13%. In fact all households saw a fall in their share of GDP except the 10% richest. The latter group bagged a 10% increase.

Fast forward 16 years and what does the 2012 HBS say? That the weakest 10% of our fellow citizens experienced a 14.7% fall in their share of the national cake. The next-to-weakest 10% also witnessed a double digit decrease. In fact not only did the bottom 70% of households not see their share increase or stay constant but these fell to 20-year lows. For example for the first time the share of the 10% poorest fell below 2%. The 2012 HBS captured the first five years of the Sithanen flat tax which is the worst form of trickle-down economics. Although he was denied a ticket in 2010 because he had badly mauled Mauritius he was still the one who had been the FM for the greatest part of the five-and-half year period.

The 2012 survey also highlights the fact that an extra 22,000 people were thrown into poverty by the policies of Rama Sithanen. That's more than one in every six poor people at the end of 2012. We can also compute changes in real disposable income to get some more perspective. As the chart below shows the 10% poorest saw an increase of only 6.7% over the five and half years ending in 2012 while the top 10% saw an jump of 30.2%. Compare that to the numbers of the 2001-2 HBS.

So Sithanen is the last person to be worried about inequality given how much of it he has created. And his return to the Labour Party will make it really easy to keep Ramgoolam, Boolell and himself out of parliament for another five years starting in 2019. For more in-depth analysis have a look at Who's the Better Cake-Cutter? and Why Poverty is Winning?

Arvin Fares Very Poorly On Labour DNA

Let's consider three core values of the Labour Party which have helped produced extraordinary results specially between 1968-82.

1. The use of an excellent constitution and the FPTP system. He is for proportional presentation (PR) which is something the LP has always been against. Arvin was also very quiet in 2014 when the MMM and the LP tried to transform Mauritius into a banana republic. Not taking a stand did not prevent him from seeing a 6-term winning streak in riding no. 11 come to an end. Besides our FPTP system has provided us with stable government after government. Something which is less likely to prevail with another dose of PR. Ask Rodrigues and Angela Merkel.

2. Progressive taxation. He is for low-taxes. Boolell doesn't seem to understand the difference between low and progressive taxes like they were before Sithanen messed them up and the 15% flat tax. The latter had already caused a GDP gap of over a trillion rupees -- that's 1,000 billions -- by the end of last April. And record inequality. It's also kind of contradictory for him to say that trickle-down economics doesn't work and at the same time be for it.

3. Building strong teams. While he mentions currency depreciation as one of the failings of the Lepep government one might believe that if he was given the chance he would appoint a progressive Governor at the BoM. But he seems to like the sugar industry way too much. A very regressive attitude. He penned an article recently where he asked for help for that sunset industry. There is only so much government can do. If it is going to throw money after a dead industry how will it roll back problems like the lack of opportunities for our youth and tackle other national priorities? And this will in no way put Mauritius in a position to have a stronger currency which is a great wealth lever.

Overall Mr. Boolell seems to have little in common with the kind of values of the Labour Party that have produced legendary results. The funny part is that he is trying to get elected in riding no.18 on the strength of past acheivements of the Labour Party. Voters are no fool.

For Ramgoolam, December 2014 Was Worse Than A 60-0

See we know what happened on the two times the outgoing government didn't manage to get a single candidate elected. The incumbent PM along with what voters considered the best candidates were ranked just after those that were elected. For example the table below shows the eight unelected politicians who got the highest percentage votes in 1982. A similar situation occurred in 1995.

None of this happened to Ramgoolam in 2014. Thirteen MPs were elected but he was not one of them although he had topped his riding in the preceding five elections. Neither were Arvin Boolell -- he had bagged six consecutive wins since 1987 -- and Rama Sithanen whose electoral model must have suggested fleeing to a 'safe' riding. In fact four losing candidates did better than Ramgoolam. It was an amazingly wonderful result. Mauritius had said no the wicked plan of transforming her into a banana republic.

Berenger Makes Electoral Predictions, Again

He's been saying for a while now that the by-election in BR/QB will be between Arvin Boolell the Labour candidate and Nita Juddoo, a newcomer and the choice of the MMM. Actually Mr. Berenger is doing more: he is telling voters not to waste their vote on other candidates. It's not very different from political leaders making the silly recommendation that we elect all candidates of the same alliance in a general election or Ramgoolam's threat that voters will have to vote for all three of his picks if they want their riding to get a Minister. Voters of course have got a mind of their own and are getting smarter at every election as more and better information becomes available at their fingertips.

The by-election is also highlighting a big advantage of single member constituencies (SMCs) – we had those in 1959 and 1963 – namely the incentives for parties to field their better candidates in an electoral contest. And some of these candidates have provided us with good debates and interesting ideas like Maharajah Madhewoo – he came 7th in riding no. 13 in December 2014 by scoring 10% – who has put his pledges in a sworn affidavit. Just imagine how the quality of our Parliament would improve if we had 40 such contests in a general election.

As for what to make of Berenger's forecasts, we can turn to two previous predictions. The first one is for the May 2010 elections: he predicted 37 seats for his side and he got 18. The other one as shown below (see after 8mn if you're pressed for time) is even more telling: he was dead sure his alliance would grab all the seats in 2014 and therefore get total support for the wicked project to turn Mauritius into a banana republic. His alliance got 47 seats less, Berenger barely made it and Mauritius a top three electoral moment. While Pamplemousses/Triolet dumped Ramgoolam and still got a Minister.

Why Labour Lost The Last Municipal Elections

Because it didn't take part in them. Although Arvin Boolell did tell us at one point in time that a list of candidates was almost ready. That was just before Navin Ramgoolam stormed into a critical meeting that would eventually have given voters -- especially labourites -- a lot more choice on the ballot paper. Ramgoolam essentially said that the governing parties had set a trap and Labour should avoid it. Understand by that that Arvin doesn't have the right profile. Mamou Ramgoolam also argued that the Labour Party didn't have the money to go into these elections as it didn't have access to its bank accounts.

That's kind of strange when you realise, for example, that the number of years that Dr. Boolell and Dr. Ramgoolam have been in politics add up to more than 50 years. Besides supporters of the Labour Party would certainly have pitched in one way or another to back any good ideas as they have been doing for almost eight decades now. Talking about a trap is also kind of hilarious when you recall what Ramgoolam, Berenger and Sithanen tried to do last December with an electoral reform that was both stupid -- as Mr. 40% + 40% = 80% confessed -- and dangerous. Mr. Bean who is celebrating his silver jubilee this year should definitely watch out for the competition.

And why did Labour lose the 2014 General Elections? Too much money? Profiles that are too perfect? Math skills that are otherworldly?

2012: The Year in Review (Q4)

October: PRB report published. Big B turns 70. Felix goes supersonic. Biden-Ryan debate felt more presidential. Apple launches the iPad mini. Gotham prepares for Sandy's visit.

November: Boolell explains Romney's defeat. Zlatan christens stadium with wonder goal. 44% of poll see sweep for Remake. Jimi turns 70. How you know a politician is a socialist. Killer to strike again. Hard-earned anti-inflation credibility at risk.

December: PM claims large victory in village elections. A good reason for men to quit smoking. Municipal voters send multiple signals. Sitar genius dead at 92. State fails more than 9,000 CPE students. Obama reacts to Connecticut tragedy. Kozelidir Person of the Year 2012 attributed to the CPE student for putting up with a badly designed learning process.
     
Read the review for Q1, Q2, Q3.

Boolell Explains Romney's Defeat

And part of the explanation is that trickle-down economics doesn't work. Interesting. Would the Minister kindly then tell us (i) what has been tried in Mauritius since 2005 and (ii) whether it has worked? Sounds like a PQ, eh? But it's not. So I can ask this last part: (iii) is that consistent with the DNA of the Labour Party?

Mauritian Couple Abducted in Tana

Benoit Ng and wife Maureen were kidnapped on Sunday. And the nappers are asking about Rs4 million to set their hostages free. Surprisingly, the Foreign Affairs Minister has asked the French and American authorities for help in conducting a ground operation.

Isn't that our GIPM's cup of tea?

As if there are no Ninjas in Mauritius who could go there and sort this thing out. Tana is after all in our neighbourhood.

2011: The Year in Review

January: African leaders get wonderful opportunity to benefit from advice that could be lethal to their political careers. Water problems confirm Ramgoolam's economic model is junk. Planning maverick barely recognisable because Labour Party forgot who she was. State could have spent our money better. Bunwaree makes access to A-level education easier.

February: IMF analysis too bland to pick up social volcanoes that had been brewing right under surface of Arab world. Journalist remembers SSR's last public meeting. Minister magic needed at earth's driest place. Union boss wants price of basic foodstuffs controlled.

March: Nobel puts feet in mouth. Powerful earthquake sets off deadly Tsunami in Japan. BRIC and Germany say no to military action in Libya. Boolell says he's not there to serve fat cats. Proposed 10-20% hike in water charges has no basis. MPs want answers from Financial Secretary. Free guide to understanding the infamous stimulus package published.

Read the review for Q2, Q3, Q4.