Guarantees in Politics

They are as likely to be honoured as hyenas promising one morning to become vegetarians or Nosferatu suddenly announcing that he prefers soya milk to haemoglobin. It is funny that the last time such a guarantee was offered the political landscape was almost identical: Ramgoolam was PM and he was made to believe that Federation I was dead. The person offering the guarantee was to get to hole up at Le Reduit had Labour won the 2000 elections.

Surprisingly, Ramgoolam's strategy at that time didn't include some basic scenario planning that would have allowed him to carry on with his mediocre style of leadership for another 5 years. I am not too sure he has gotten any wiser since then. Anybody for some game theory?