Kisana Ki Papa Mirak Ekonomik?

Mazorite dimun pu dir Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo. Me depi omwin 2019 Paul Bérenger dir ki se li ki veritab papa sa period de bon krwasans ekonomik dan ban lane 1980 la parski li ti fer le pli difisil e sa ve dir met sales tax. Problem ki en anvol ekonomik pa selman depan ki ranflue lakes guvernman. E pli inportan, kuma tiart la ilistre, kifer li pan fer u ede pu fer en lot mirak ekonomik kan limem ti minis de finans pandan trwa lane e trwa lezot fwa li ti dan guvernman? Nu kav osi fak tiek ansyin lider MMM pu gayn en bon lide so metriz ban size nasional inportan. Nu kav usi analiz 10 pwin ki li pe reservi pu lans so nuvo parti. Ah wi, Lutchmeenaraidoo pan fer en lot mirak ekonomik apre le 10 Desam 2014.

Eski Plant Plis Kan Se En Bon Stratezi Pu Moris?

ReA Se En Parti Extrem Drwat

Anu Tiek En Palab Ki Abitie Fer Lor FPTP

Where Main Parties Stood When We Voted in November 2019

The three main blocks were very similar at the time. Lalit was right on all but one major issues.

Mauritius Gets 2nd Three–Cornered Fight

Bérenger Says He’s the Real Miracle Man

And not Lutchmeenaraidoo because he did all the work after the 60-0 in 1982. This is another funny statement from him because he was Minister of Finance for only nine months and if you read Cuttaree’s Behind The Purple Curtain you can’t fail to notice that about the only thing they were busy doing until March 1983 was fighting each other inside the alliance. This of course leaves even less time to do good work. Furthermore if a neophyte in 1982 can create an ‘economic miracle’ with one budget surely he will be able to do at least as well if he ever returned as Finance Minister later.

The trouble for Bérenger is that he did return as Finance Minister in 2000 and got the chance to present not one but three budgets. And what did Cuttaree have to say about the state of the economy after those budgets? Something very interesting: “Nous sommes en urgence économique. La situation est sans précédent.” It was a period in which almost twenty-three thousands jobs were lost in one industry alone in a few years. Mr. Bérenger of course described the situation differently dubbing Mauritius the best managed country in the world. What else to expect from a party with more than a little penchant for self-aggrandisement?

Knowledge about the economy is not something that the MMM seemed to have got better at since. Reza Uteem, their shadow Finance Minister, was heard a couple of years ago on a radio saying that the offshore sector needs a stimulus package. The MMM has also set saving the dead sugar industry as a top priority in its electoral manifesto. It doesn’t do well on other important national issues either. 

Issues That Will Decide the General Election

The Rise and Rise of Parti Malin

It’s a real pity that the by-election in no. 7 was not held earlier because we might have seen something historic. Indeed Danrajsingh Aubeeluck (DA), the unmistakable leader of Parti Malin, could have received a number of votes close to the one the MMM candidate got. See the MMM has been on a steady decline for a long time and managed only 14% in the last by-election which took place in an urban riding. Depending on which candidate it picked the latter might have collected only 3-4% in no. 7 with DA getting around 1-2% – not unreasonable given his improving performance shown in chart 1 – if not more given how the voting pattern has been changing. Citizens after all have become increasingly smart. 

 

Mr. Malin has also been doing a lot better in general elections quadrupling his vote share in a decade in no. 17 (see 2) and clocking his best rank ever in the riding of Ramgoolam in 2014. He's now running in the same constituency as the outgoing PM with the aim of keeping PJ out of parliament. That's not as far-fetched as you might think given that the 793 votes he collected represent about 23% of missing votes that would have sent Ramgoolam back to parliament.

One Way Lalit is Different From Mainstream Parties

It doesn’t want to bail out the sugar industry while the LP, MMM and the MSM do. Rezistans ek Alternativ too wants save to this old industry. So who’s right?

Bipolarizasyon Politik Se En Mit

Dan Lamerik ena li. Parti Demokrat ek Parti Repiblikin. Sa de la tu letan mate ek prezidan sorti depi en sa de parti la. Moris nu pa fin ena sa. Se ki nwena se rekonfigirasyon 4-5 parti dan de lalyans ki sanze a traver letan. Mem an 1967 pa ti vreman ena li parski dan Parti Lindepandans tiena Ptr, IFB ek CAM.

Par kont se kin arive depi 2005 se ki nun retruv nu ek ban Parlman byin regresif ki ti pur reprezantasyon proporsyonel (PR) ek ban politik iltra-liberal. Ptr su Navin Ramgoolam fin trayir ban valer sa parti ki ti lager pu lindepandans ek don nu leta providans. Setadir li pur PR, flat tax kin kas lekonomi ek li pa fin kon byin antur li. MMM usi mekonesab ek nepli ena nanye interesan pu ofer Moris. Ek depi 2015 nun truve ki MSM usi fin vin en parti neoliberal ek fin pratik ban politik bankal kin kontinye kul Moris ek pena respe pu lanatir. Tu sa la fin an parti arive parski ban parti la ena manb infliyan ki ena lintere dan offshore ek zot gayn finansman korporatif inportan.

Bon nuvel se ki lelektora fin kontinye vin pli malin. 

Finalman Rekin Pann Vot 'Under Protest'

Le promye desam li pa ti ankor deside si pa li ti pu konplis pu transform Moris an enn repiblik bananyer. Sirma linn mezir anpler reaksyon tre negatif sosyete sivil par rapor a sa simagri PR ki MSM/ML ti propose la. So gran dezakor se ki li truv sa kuma Sachs so Model A alor ki li prefer Model C. Bel dezakor! Wadire kiken pa le aval pwazon parskinn bliye met enn tigit lavani.

Pli sir li pe espere ki Privy Council pu dir lor ka Medoint avan antam/kontinye negosyasyon. 

Why Electoral Reform Got Sidetracked For a Couple of Decades

The first reason is that the really smart politicians who understood the dangers of proportional representation (PR) passed away thirty or more years ago and were not replaced by a crop of a similar calibre. SKJ and SSR died in 1985 while Renganaden Seeneevassen who was one of the fiercest critic of PR was gone even earlier – he died in the middle of 1958. The only politician of that generation who is still active is SAJ which would explain why he dubbed PR a komeraz. But then again he doesn't seem to fully understand all the risks of PR. This is reflected in the dangerous bill on electoral reform before parliament. It has failed to address the problems with government formation countries encounter when they add a dose of PR to a first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. And we definitely cannot count on Navin Ramgoolam and today's Labour Party to bring wisdom to the debate. They're deeply mired in trickle-down economics and bean-counting.

The second reason is terms of reference (TOR) that were too narrow. From Sachs to Sithanen only PR solutions were considered although better non-PR solutions exists. There was even a brief attached (see screenshot) by the MMM to the TOR of the Sachs commission. It's fine to raise an eyebrow. The big plus of course is the internet. Ideas can spread a lot faster than before in our hyperconnected world.

Eski Etnisite Pli Gro Fakter Dan Eleksyon Zeneral?

Dan enn interviu an Fevriye 2014 dan Mauritius Times Sithanen dir ki etnisite eksplik ant 65% a 70% rezilta sak eleksyon an mwayenn ek li finn al ziska 85% trwa fwa ek ant 50% ek 55% pu de 60-0. Li ti osi dir ki sa zame pu sanze. Nu rapel usi ki li ti prevwar ki Ptr/MMM ti pu gayne par 60-0 parski "40% + 40% = 80%". Pa bliye ki li ti sanz sirkonskripsyon. Li ti kit nimero 18 kot li ti for pu al dan nimero 13. Si linn buz dan nimero 13 se sirma pu bann rezon etnik parski samem fakter pli inportan dapre li. Amwin li kwar ki dimunn laba pa kone ki li ti fer ar lintere labank. Ek se sirman pu bann mem rezon etnik ki li ti poz dan nimero 18 plizir fwa.

Be kuma li eksplike ki linn tronp li par 47 siez pu Desam 2014, ki li mem finn perdi so siez ek ki Ramgoolam ek Boolell pa finn eli alor ki zot ti eli dan zot sirkonskripsyon sinq ek sis fwa dafile? Lot zafer se kifer li pann poz so kandida dan nimero 18 an Desam 2017? Drol usi ki pann truv li lor lestrad Ptr ant 2015 ek preske lafin 2017 non? Ek kifer li pann gayn tiket an 2010 uswa poze kuma indepandan swa dan nimero 18 ubyen dan nimero 13? Anfet li ti dekrir sa bayantaz la kuma pli gran trayizon politik (lol!). Be si sa ti vre li ti kav prezant li divan lelektora ek nu ti va gete si pa li ti pu fer enn top skor kuma Dayal an 2000 (Dayal ki ti perdi so job kuma komiser lapolis ti pu eli si mwins ki 300 dimunn ti vot li olye Daureeawoo).

Bon se vre ki se pa promye fwa ki li ti pe montre ki li pa tro for dan analiz. Pa limem ti dir nu pu gayn krwasans 8% si bes taks kuma linn fer a partir 2006 (mank omwin 300 milyar rupi dan lakes guvernman par rapor a so previzyon)? Apre nunn truv so reform elektoral: enn veritab galimatia danzere. Sa zafer etnik la se enn diversyon pu ki zot kav kontinye kul Moris ek bann politik ki favoriz zot ek zis enn ti ponye dimunn.

Zot pe gayn traka parksi dimunn zot lizye pe uver de plis an plis. Dernye de reklam se Desam 2014 ek Desam 2017. 

Karl At 200

So he got the boom and bust cycles and inequality right but missed the ability of capitalism to reform itself and the establishment of welfare states which boosted upward social mobility and improved lives. He didn't foresee Marxist regimes killing people on a horrendous scale either. After ideology had become an opium or tool of deception for too many of his followers. But the most interesting thing about Marx was the healthy dose of scepticism he kept about ideas including his own (read with a free subscription). He was relatively unknown during his life with between nine and eleven people attending his funeral.

The MMM started out as a Marxist-Leninist party. Would you believe this? While a recent breakaway faction with interesting initials wants to privatise water.

MMM Siyn Enn Gran Lakor Elektoral

Pu eleksyon zeneral le 13 Septam 2024. Wi, MMM pu al ansam ek Party Malin dan enn lakor a la Palestinyenn dan lintere siperyer Moris. An efe, lider Party Malin finn anons sa a so promye konferans de pres trimestryel pu lane 2020 ansam ek lider MMM. Lider Party Malin pu PM pandan 4 an ek 51 semen ek lider MMM pu PM pandan leres letan. Lider MMM sir zot pu gayn tu bann siez – sirtu apre depar tu bann fos vre militan ek bann vre fos aktivis depi dan MMM – ek sa pu permet zot al de lavan ek zot proze fer Lil Morist vinn enn pei far.

Dimunn pa pe tro konpran kifir lider MMM pe kontan kumsa parski MMM inn gayn zis enn tiket ek enn pos kuma PPS dan enn evantyel guvernman PM-MMM. Bon se vre ki apre sa gro tranbleman de ter dan dernye eleksyon zeneral – elekter ti vot zis bann bon kandida ek ti donn bann seki gayn enn move bagratel enn kontra afermaz 99 banane dan karo kan – li paret ki MMM inn gayn enn ase bon deal. Par kont dimunn pe dimann zot si pe apel sa enn lakor Palestinyenn parski tu le de ti met enn keffiyeh.

Lider MMM finn avwe ki bann negosyasyon pa ti fasil. Inn pran lider Party Malin ek li trwa mwa pu resi tom dakor. Obstak prinsipal sete partaz post siprem. Lider MMM ti kumans propoz vinn PM pandan enn mwa me lider Party Malin ti pe dakor zis pu enn demi-zurne. Lider MMM finn salye zenerosite ek patriotism lider Party Malin.

Zis pu riye sa. Si u pa ti fini konpran.

Stuff Which Will Drive Voting On Sunday

Voter turnout. For the last 5 general elections turnout in BR/QB has been between 74% and 81%. 74% is a 30-year low reached in December 2014. I don't have the turnout for by-elections. This will be the 10th by-election since our independence.

The LP/MMM alliance won all the three seats in 1995 with a vote range of 60% to 73%. In 2014 only one candidate of the LP/MMM team, Kavi Ramano, got elected and that too in third position. The vote range collapsed to 34% to 48%. Mr. Ramano is not in the MMM anymore while that party seemed to be really on the defensive. And Berenger's predictions have not been getting better.

There are at least two candidates from smaller parties who scored more than 10% in the last General Elections: Raj Madhewoo and Jack Bizlall. Electing one of them would be no big surprise as Dev Virahsawmy a relatively unknown candidate from a then one-year old party got elected in 1970. And let's not forget that one Vikram Hurdoyal from got 25% in 2014 in constituency no.10.

Voters have been getting more sophisticated over time. The internet has accelerated this process. Just consider the number of debates that we've seen in this campaign. There have also been some interesting initiatives like one candidate submitting a declaration of assets and two swearing affidavits. Plus voters managed to see through the dangerous plan of establishing a plutocracy in December 2014.

There is a widespread feeling that traditional parties have failed us. Lepep has been too scared to field a candidate although there was a natural campaign theme available for one of its parties to test the assumption that it had now become a national party. The MMM and the LP are very pale reflections of what they say they are and what they have been.

Money won't play a big role in this campaign. You saw how much money there was in the safe of one politician in 2015. That was at the end of the campaign for national elections. How much was spent? Yet he still suffered his first electoral defeat in twenty-three years. Imported crowds and fake polls won't vote. Neither will debates apparently constrained by studio size.

Berenger Makes Electoral Predictions, Again

He's been saying for a while now that the by-election in BR/QB will be between Arvin Boolell the Labour candidate and Nita Juddoo, a newcomer and the choice of the MMM. Actually Mr. Berenger is doing more: he is telling voters not to waste their vote on other candidates. It's not very different from political leaders making the silly recommendation that we elect all candidates of the same alliance in a general election or Ramgoolam's threat that voters will have to vote for all three of his picks if they want their riding to get a Minister. Voters of course have got a mind of their own and are getting smarter at every election as more and better information becomes available at their fingertips.

The by-election is also highlighting a big advantage of single member constituencies (SMCs) – we had those in 1959 and 1963 – namely the incentives for parties to field their better candidates in an electoral contest. And some of these candidates have provided us with good debates and interesting ideas like Maharajah Madhewoo – he came 7th in riding no. 13 in December 2014 by scoring 10% – who has put his pledges in a sworn affidavit. Just imagine how the quality of our Parliament would improve if we had 40 such contests in a general election.

As for what to make of Berenger's forecasts, we can turn to two previous predictions. The first one is for the May 2010 elections: he predicted 37 seats for his side and he got 18. The other one as shown below (see after 8mn if you're pressed for time) is even more telling: he was dead sure his alliance would grab all the seats in 2014 and therefore get total support for the wicked project to turn Mauritius into a banana republic. His alliance got 47 seats less, Berenger barely made it and Mauritius a top three electoral moment. While Pamplemousses/Triolet dumped Ramgoolam and still got a Minister.

First 60-0 Turns 35

Three and half decades ago Mauritians were busy voting out every single MP in their government. This included Kher Jagatsingh, a 50-year old maverick, who had completed what he considered his biggest challenge: the reform and development of education and cultural affairs. After coming up with the idea of free education five and a half years earlier.

The tectonic shift of the results the following day didn't impress me that much. Because I was asking everyone calling in on voting day how they thought it would go. One deadpan answer from a trusted source gave me pause: 60-0. It sounded so real and definitive that other predictions received before and after that call kind of sounded fake.

Voters obviously did the right thing on 11 June 1982. Given their ability to understand the progress made at that time. They even showed wisdom in that complete sweep. And have gotten a lot more sophisticated since then.

Lalit Explains Non-Productive Invesments

Once you build a villa on agricultural land it will not generate employment like an agricultural village will. And we're not even talking how it will put real estate out of reach to large swathes of our population. They also mentioned that the major political parties are all the same. I'd go further: the LP and MSM have let Mauritius down by pursuing regressive policies as from 2006 after the MMM did so a long time ago.

They also called for the President to step down. They are not the only ones.