Pravind Jugnauth Pe Rakont Zistwar

Li fin Minis de Finans trwa fwa e PM pandan set an e li pa kon en zafer elemanter kumsa? Pli sir li byin kone me li bizin dir sa pu ki sey sov mit ki MSM se ban gran zestioner lekonomi.

Diaspora kav apran en ta zafer interesan lor Moris e kuma analiz ek predir performans en pei ek nu gid 2024.

Kifer Nuvo Loto PM Pe Fer Otan Polemik

Ler nun tieke nun gayn konfirmasion ki pri loto PM fek aste li reprezant un pli ti par GDP ki ban avan. 

En Zafer Esansiel Lor BRP Ki Guvernman Pan Mansione

Ki pu tu mwayen kwrasans aniel ant 2025 ek 2035 pli gran ki 2.2%, par en BRP de Rs100 milyar dan GDP 2035 pu bese. Anu rapel ki ant 1968 ek 2005 nu lekonomi in grandi a 5.1% an mwayen e ki ant 2006 ek 2025 nu GDP in grosi a en to mwayen fatra de 3.3% olie 8% ki Sithanen ti promet ek so flat tax 15%. Anfet si nu kontinie gayn sa to fatra de 3.3% la rasio BRP/GDP pu bes de 7.8% a 7% an 2035.

Platform Komun Syndikal Fin Ekrir A Ban Parlmanter

Dan en let sinq paz, zot fin explike, sif a lapwi, ki BRP e nu welfer steyt sutenab me seki pa sutenab se sa pwazon de flat tax 15% ki Sithanen ti servi popilasion apartir 2006. Zot fin dir ki rasio BRP/GDP ki fin okip deba piblik dernie 13 mwa pu bese ek en BRP de 100 milyar rupi an 2035 pu tu to krwasans aniel mwayin siperyer a 2.2% ki en to vreman insinifian konsideran potansiel Moris.

PKS fin osi expos dega katastrofik ki flat tax 15% Sithanen in fer a Moris depi 2006 e kuma sa fin fer an sort ki nu lekonomi de fwa edmi pli tipti ki seki li bizin ete an 2026.

PKS fin osi fer plizir propozision pu ogmant reveni guvernman e fin termin let la par dir ki zot ti va prefer ena ban konsiltasion sinser ek guvernman e fer ban parlmanter remarke ki laful dan manifestasion le 11 Ziyet 2026 dan Por-Lwi in fini vot pu en lagrev zeneral.

U kav lir let la isi.

Lepep Pe Desan Lor Sime Pu Ki Ran So BRP

E aret latak lor so leta providans ki anpes 1/3 Morisyin tom dan lamizer. Ena pagli mami ki alor ki nu system lasante pibilk in krash ti dir resaman ki 18.5 milyar rupi ki nu depanse ladan en fardo mari lur. Anfet si ti bizin depans mem pursantaz GDP ki Sesel e nu ti gayn krwasans 8% ki ti sipoze gayne ek flat tax 15% Sithanen be nu ti bizin depans 93.2 milyar rupi u 5X plis.

Nu mark nu prezans Samdi 11 Ziyet, 13h, Sant Sosial Mari Ren de Lape ki truv anfas Lanbasad de Frans, Por-Lwi.

Eski BRP Iniversel A 60 An Sutenab?

Wi. Kuma tiart la montre nu mem si nu kontinie gayn sa to krwasans fatra mwayin de 3.3% ki nun gayne ant 2006 ek 2024 lor prosin 10 an pwa BRP dan lekonomi (GDP) pu bese de 7.8% a 7%. Nun fer lipotez ki to linflasion prosin 10 an pu an mwayen seki li fin ete ant 2001 ek 2024. Aster si nu gayn 5.1% de krwasans mwayen be BRP pu reprezant selman 5.9% GDP. 4.5% si mwayen krwasans GDP la vin 8%.

Donk tre sutenab. Selman sa de dernie bidze inbesil kin prezante la pu kontinie diminie nu to krwasans parski li kontinie asfixie lekonomi parey kuma tu ban bidze depi 2006. Ramgoolam ankor ena letan pu amen ban sanzman ki bizin dan finance bill pu bidze 2026/27.

Anu Redemont En Argiman Bidon Ramgoolam

Depi en sertin letan li pe dir ki si pa ti repus laz ki kumans tus BRP a 65 an be BRP ti pu kut 100 milyar rupi an 2035. Mo ti tan sa promie fwa dan so diskur pu kongre 90em laniverser Ptr. Zordi mon truve ki ena usi sa palab la dan so steytmint le 17 Zin 2025 dan Parlman. E lin redir sa fek la. Se en argiman ki mo ti osi demoli dan Preokipasion Sitwayin, en liv ki ninport kisana kav dawnlod gratwitman. 

Be kuma tiart la montre si depans BRP pu pas de 55.3 milyar a 100 milyar dan 10 an se en ogmantasion de 80%. Me li bon kone ki dan le pase nun gayn ban ogmantasion lor 10 banane buku pli inportan ki sa. Par egzanp BRP ti ogmant par 540% ant 1987/88 ek 1997/98 e 170% ant 1997/98 ek 2007/08 ki inklir ban period kot Ramgoolam ti PM. E malgre sa ban ogmantasion buku pli inportan la zame BRP ti depas plis ki 2% GDP. Si li ti 7.8% GDP an Zin 2025 se akoz ti servi li kuma en zarm elektoral dan omwin 3 eleksion e sirtu akoz zame nu pan gayn krwasans mwayin de 8% ki Sithanen ti promet ek so flat tax 15%. Anfet de 2006 a 2025 mwayen krwasans ti selman 3.3% e sa fin fer an sort ki lekonomi apepre 2.5X pli tipti ki seki li ti bizin ete.

An pasan kifer u kwar zame Ramgoolam koz lor to krwasans mwayin depi 2006?

State of Economy Pan Fer Nu Vin Mwins Kuyon

Nu ti deza kone ki striktir taxasion insutenab ki ti kumanse ek flat tax 15% Sithanen an 2006 in kaziman rwin nu pei. Par kont SoE in rod fer kwar ki problem in leve selman dernie 10 an. Ki fos. E ban azisteman ki SoE in fer pu GDP ase insinifian (0.16% de diferans pu 2022) par rapor a katastrof kot Moris retruv li depi 20 an.

Kuma tiart la montre nu, pu 2022, GDP diferan par mwins ki 1 milyar rupi. 1 milyar rupi se buku larzan me lor 571.2 milyar pa sa kantite la. Me kestion ki bizin poze se komie GDP ti bizin ete an 2022 dapre prozeksion 8% krwasans Sithanen ler li ti met so flat tax. Ler nu fer en ti kalkil nu truve ki GDP ti bizin 1,254 milyar u 2.2X nivo dan SoE (en diferans Rs683.7 milyar). Pu 2023, GDP selon SoE ti plis ki 21 milyar rupi pli tipti ki sif ofisiel (3.26% de diferans) ki ase konsekan me konparativman a 1,442 milyar ki GDP (2.25X pli gro ki sif SoE u en mank a gayne de Rs800.7 milyar) ti bizin ete selon previzion Sithanen u mirak ekonomik mem sa 21 milyar la ase tipti.

Pu 2024, koreksion GDP SoE ankor pli eleve, Rs36.3 milyar (preske 5%), me lekar ek previzion GDP pu flat tax 15% ankor pli gran, Rs915.5 milyar u 2.31X sif SoE. Me sa SoE pan dir nu.

Ranz Nuvo Sime Pa Diminie Trafik, O Kontrer

Get en kut kin arive lor de period 17 an dan Moris. En kot fiskalite ti sutenab, GDP ti vin 2.19X pli gro e nu ti ranz 219km nuvo sime e en lot kot fiskalite ti leze, GDP ti grosi par 1.67X selman me nu ti ranz 1,035km nuvo sime. Dan promie period rezo rutie ti ogmant par 12% e deziem par 51%.

Donk nu pa sanz tiyo delo perse, nu pa asir en bon disponibilite manze me selman nu beton later agrikol kuma pagla pu nu van vila ek milyarder etranze e nu ranz sime kuma toke. An mem tan nu avoy nu ban Minis ek en bol pu al rod lasarite ek ban lezot pei.

Pe diminie par ledikasion piblik ek lasante piblik dan lekonomi prosin 3 an selma pu depans 14 milyar rupi dan konstriksion nuvo sime prosin 5 an ki nu ditu pa bizin. Met serye!

India in Overtaking Mood, Again

It's now the fourth biggest economy in the world in dollar terms after have said TTFN to Japan. Expect the gentle elephant to overtake Germany around October 2027 and then to take a pause of 36 years before climbing the last the two steps of the podium within a couple of years. China which has already the largest economy in PPP terms should start seeing Uncle Sam in its mirror in 2056 and stay in the top position for nine years. Before Tianzhu reclaims the spot it held during 85% of the last 2,000 years.

T-Series is the Most Viewed Channel on YouTube

When I saw that Shakira’s channel on that platform – incidentally the second most visited website in the world – had reached an eye-popping 20 billion views I googled up the most viewed one. Wikipedia, which turned 20 exactly two weeks ago, lists the Indian music channel as the most popular with 141 billion views. And 170 million subscribers. If these subscribers were a country it would be the 8th or 9th most populous country in the world. Add another 100 million followers in the next couple of years and it will be breathing down on the neck of Indonesia which is on its way to become only the fourth country with a population exceeding 300 million. 

That shouldn’t be too difficult considering that seven eighths Indians are not subscribers yet and the subcontinent is on track to regain its status as the largest economy in the world which it held during 85% of the last 2,000 years. Having the largest diaspora and a 10,000-year old culture shouldn’t hurt either. 

Na Pa Tus Konze Travayer

Guvernman pe anvi kup konze travayer a koz covid-19. Fode pa li fer sa parski konfinman se pa en konze me en leksperians difisil kot dimun fin bizin res lakaz pu res an vi. Ena buku zafer li kav fer a la plas:

1. En konpayni pa gayn drwa diman kudme ek guvernman si li pan kup so dividen ek kup depans fla fla. Bizin usi kone komye fwa la pey ek benefis so CEO pli for ki travayer ek pli ti lapey. Ban aksyoner kav reinvesti dan zot konpayni pu kumanse.

2. En konpayni pa gayn drwa met dimun deor brit si li ena rezerv uswa fin fer profi u fin pey ban dividen egzazere ban dernye lane. Li bizin pa gayn drwa met travayer deor apre rod travayer pli bon marse depi lot pei.

3. Guvernman bizin introdwir en wealth tax ek remet taksasyon progresif.

4. Si bizin kup lapey u lavantaz ban travayer bizin fer li de fason progresif. Dimun ki gayn ziska 30,000 par mwa pa gayn kupe e dimun ki gayn 500,000 par mwa u plis kup ant 50% ek 75%.

5. Kansel tu privilez duti-fri pu loto pu prosen sink an.

6. Obliz tablisman plant manze lor zot later ek friz tu proze IRS/RES/PDS.

7. Friz dezyem faz tram ekspres ek pran kas ka don CEB pu li investi masivman dan soler/eolyen pu ki pri kuran vin byin pre a zero.

8. Remet laz retret 60 an kumsa kav angaz plis zen. 

Simple Tools To Evaluate Political Projects (3)

So we've seen the types of cakes that have been cooked over five-year periods for the last 35 years. In this post we look at the second part of our framework to analyse political projects: how the cake is shared. Statmu provides us with a wealth of data to do this. The simplest information is the share of the cake going to the bottom and top 20% households. For example this what happened since 1986/7 (the sexy charts will be for later).

Income share in % 1986/7 1991/2 1996/7 2001/2 2006/7 2012
Bottom 20%              5.6      6.4      5.9      6.2     6.1      5.4
Top 20%                  44.2    43.5    46.2    44.8    45.6    47.5
Ratio                         7.9       6.8      7.8      7.2      7.5      8.8

Clearly this puts the lie to the assertion used by TINAwallahs that there is little we can do about inequality and that it is a phenomenon which is entirely tied to globalisation. As the data shows although it has been increasing -- let's focus on the ratio for now -- since 2001/2 there are also two interesting periods where it actually fell. One is in 1991/2 which coincided with the passing of the baton of Finance Minister between Lutchmeenaraidoo and Sithanen. So the former actually decreased inequality by putting an extra 0.8% of GDP in the hands of the bottom 20% and this was mostly financed by reducing the share of the top 20%. Enter Sithanen and he reverses most of the gains of the bottom 20% while giving the top 20% an extra eye-popping 2.7% -- that's more than three times what the bottom 20% got in the preceding 5 years. This ensured that the top 20% got their biggest share since 1986/7.

And then five years later Bheenick and Bunwaree clawed back three-fifths of the loss the bottom 20% experienced and reduced the share of the top 20% by 1.4% or half of what they gained during the first stint of Dr. TINAnen. We obviously have more to say on this interesting dataset. We'll do this in our next posts.

Simple Tools To Evaluate Political Projects (2)

In this post we look at the size of the cake which is the one of the two parts of the political project as we defined it in the first post in this series. We can have an idea of the economic cake that a government will generate if we analyse what politicians say, have in their electoral manifesto and have said and done before. We can also look at 5-year periods as it is the frequency at which the very interesting household budget survey (HBS) is carried out. This is done in the following chart.

The 8.5% led to the first 60-0. It's an interesting period where one cyclone wiped out two years of progress. Don't think voters were able to separate this from the skill level of the government they had at the time. The years 1982 to 1992 were free of major natural calamities, benefited from the great work done in earlier periods and happened in a very favourable international environment. That gave us the two biggest cakes of the thirty-five-year period.

The cake contracted by about 10 percentage points over the following ten years -- during which the second 60-0 happened -- and another 5 percentage points between 2002-07. The consolidation of our textile industry occurred in the latter period. Finally the last period is the first 5 years of the Sithanen flat tax. Pretty small numbers given the 8% growth that was promised to trickle down. 8% growth over five years is a cake that increases by 46.9%. This has contributed to a GDP gap of Rs269bn by the end of 2012. A cake smaller than expected of course translates into governments that get less done and increases the odds of getting booted out of power.

Simple Tools To Evaluate Political Projects (1)

Aka "projet de societé" or social contracts. An important part of any political project is how big a cake a government will bake over a period of time and how that cake will be shared. The size of the cake is usually measured by something like gross domestic product (GDP) while the sharing by a host of numbers. Breaking down a political project like this will provide us with interesting insights. Stay tuned!

Why Mauritius Has No Money For Capital Budgets

It's not really because of the capital projects undertaken by the previous Government namely the new airport terminal and the ring road. And the sums that may be needed to rehabilitate them. The main reason is the regressive flat tax and the extensive damage that has been done to the economy to keep it at 15%. There was 927 billion of GDP missing at the end of 2016 -- aka the Sithanen toohrooh -- and if we assume that government would have reduced its revenue as a share of GDP to 15% it's missing 139 billion rupees. If it kept it at 20% then there's 185 billion rupees of government revenue missing.

What can you buy with Rs185 billion? Something like the Dubai metro or the one considered by the city which pioneered the bus rapid transit (BRT). But we don't need that kind of metro although we should have been able to afford it were it not for a massive ministerial skills mismatch. We don't need a scaled down version of the Metro Leger either simply because the flat tax has placed our public finances on an unsustainable track. There are better and urgent ways of handling the traffic Frankenstein.

Even more urgent is to restore some sanity to our public finances. Not a bad idea as how can Lepep deliver an economic miracle in year 4 when it cannot organically generate money for capital budgets 12 months before?