Kisana Ki Papa Mirak Ekonomik?

Mazorite dimun pu dir Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo. Me depi omwin 2019 Paul Bérenger dir ki se li ki veritab papa sa period de bon krwasans ekonomik dan ban lane 1980 la parski li ti fer le pli difisil e sa ve dir met sales tax. Problem ki en anvol ekonomik pa selman depan ki ranflue lakes guvernman. E pli inportan, kuma tiart la ilistre, kifer li pan fer u ede pu fer en lot mirak ekonomik kan limem ti minis de finans pandan trwa lane e trwa lezot fwa li ti dan guvernman? Nu kav osi fak tiek ansyin lider MMM pu gayn en bon lide so metriz ban size nasional inportan. Nu kav usi analiz 10 pwin ki li pe reservi pu lans so nuvo parti. Ah wi, Lutchmeenaraidoo pan fer en lot mirak ekonomik apre le 10 Desam 2014.

What's New on The Jag!

We shouldn't worry too much about Brexit. We better focus on the mess we're in. Including raising top tax rates and drastically improving our land use.

Lutchmeenaraidoo will not deliver a second miracle now that he's in another ministry. SAJ didn't either. And don't count on Pravind. Bringing some basic common sense back to policy-making is a good place to start.

Ramgoolam was way too vague about Labour's DNA during a rally organised to mark the LP's 80 birthday. We made it a lot more precise but not before checking how he did on the criteria he listed. It's not the first time Ramgoolam tries to go cerebral.

A good look at income distribution over a 20-year period. Helps answer the following question: who's the better cake-cutter?

Some politicians say that our youth got a skills mismatch. I disagree.

A quick look at the performance of Sithanen from a political perspective.

Enn ti lokasyon pu tiek mo kreol.

And here's a flash review of a few other pieces on The Jag!

What Lutchmeenaraidoo Must Do, Fast

Increase top tax rates for individuals and for corporates in the next budget. So energy prices can come down to levels that reflect international conditions. And government can start help the economy humming nicely again. In a sustainable fashion. Smart Cities which are more like glorified IRS will not take us anywhere good. They are like the wrong type of FDI we've been getting since 2005: they don't help our young knowledge workers contribute their skills to push Mauritius forward but only make sure that another whole generation is buried. Alive.

Or Lepep and Vishnu -- who can't seem to tell the difference between a Black Swan and a White one -- stand to lose a lot more than bragging rights about delivering a second 'miracle'. They will inevitably be thrown out of office and voters will finally experience an aha moment when revisiting the 'first' one.

Basant Roi Back, Rupee Down By 3%, Already

By yesterday our currency had lost 3.28% of its value against the dollar. In the mere 18 trading days since Basant Roi has been back at the BoM. He is known to have a strong and silly depreciation bias. In fact if you had to chart the number of times he has asked for a lower value for our rupee -- when he was not in a position to sink it himself -- you would literally have to use a log scale.

I hope Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo's idea of a "second economic miracle" doesn't involve making Mauritius increasingly insignificant in the world. And keeping local pump prices artificially higher after oil prices collapsed is kind of contradictory about making SMEs the backbone of our economy. And is oblivious to the fact that he is presenting a budget in a few weeks. Besides we've been suffering from such a disconnect for way too long. And for very wrong reasons.

All has not been bad though. Swiftly increasing pensions to Rs5,000 will surely help restore some disposable income to those who need it the most. And that cannot do our economy any harm.

2011: The Year in Review (Q3)

July: Audit report confirms PBB is an eyewash. Jugnauth announces second miracle on its way. Minister loses son in accident. Hanoomanjee resigns followed by other MSM Ministers. Ramgoolam gets chance to measure up to the Gods of the Labour Party: do plenty with paper-thin majority. Mauritians experience their excellent constitution one more time.

August: US votes on debt deal hours before going into default. Seetaram crosses floor to give Ramgoolam breathing space. MSM leaves government without delivering new miracle. Mansoor wants Mauritius to pay for bean-counting mess, again. For Paul and Pravind it's still love at first sight. Our Parliament found already too big. Manou re-explains BOM's role to MEXA.

September: IMF confirms bean-counters indulged in Voodoo accounting. Jamaica 100m relay team too strong for world. Universe gets new Miss: Leila. Interest rate spreads hurting our competitiveness. Team-builder extraordinaire turns 111. Debt service to exceed education budget by 40% in 2013. Palestinians rejoice as Abbas requests UN membership. Sugar syndicate unhappy world not frozen.

Read the review for Q1, Q2, Q4.

MSM Leaves Government Without Delivering Second Miracle

After Pravind Jugnauth has been Finance Minister for 15 months. I am really surprised because I thought that the the Universe had conspired to make the first one happen as soon as the MSM was created back in 1983. And that after the then Labour Party had left the economy in shambles.

So what's different now? Economic conditions are worse than in 1983? The magic formula is not working anymore? Or maybe there was never any magic formula and the MSM of SAJ mostly got quite lucky?

Jugnauth: Second Miracle On Its Way

That's what he said in parliament this week. The trouble is that a year has already gone by since he's been in the driver seat and nobody has seen anything yet. Save water cuts for almost 12 months and an inflationary budget in November.

Don't hold your breath.

How Lucky Was Lutchmeenaraidoo

Quite if you look at the above graphic which depicts two important variables that could send the world economy into a recession: US interest rates. When Vishnu took over as Minister of Finance in March 1983 the Fed funds rate had swiftly fallen by almost 600 basis points from the level it was when SSR and buddies faced political mayhem. That's a slide of more than 50% from its June 1981 peak of 17.78%. And they stayed relatively low throughout his Ministerial stint.

The fellow who took over in September 1991 was also quite lucky because he got some of the lowest rates in  25 years.