Ki pu tu mwayen kwrasans aniel ant 2025 ek 2035 pli gran ki 2.2%, par en BRP de Rs100 milyar dan GDP 2035 pu bese. Anu rapel ki ant 1968 ek 2005 nu lekonomi in grandi a 5.1% an mwayen e ki ant 2006 ek 2025 nu GDP in grosi a en to mwayen fatra de 3.3% olie 8% ki Sithanen ti promet ek so flat tax 15%. Anfet si nu kontinie gayn sa to fatra de 3.3% la rasio BRP/GDP pu bes de 7.8% a 7% an 2035.
Dan en let sinq paz, zot fin explike, sif a lapwi, ki BRP e nu welfer steyt sutenab me seki pa sutenab se sa pwazon de flat tax 15% ki Sithanen ti servi popilasion apartir 2006. Zot fin dir ki rasio BRP/GDP ki fin okip deba piblik dernie 13 mwa pu bese ek en BRP de 100 milyar rupi an 2035 pu tu to krwasans aniel mwayin siperyer a 2.2% ki en to vreman insinifian konsideran potansiel Moris.
PKS fin osi expos dega katastrofik ki flat tax 15% Sithanen in fer a Moris depi 2006 e kuma sa fin fer an sort ki nu lekonomi de fwa edmi pli tipti ki seki li bizin ete an 2026.
PKS fin osi fer plizir propozision pu ogmant reveni guvernman e fin termin let la par dir ki zot ti va prefer ena ban konsiltasion sinser ek guvernman e fer ban parlmanter remarke ki laful dan manifestasion le 11 Ziyet 2026 dan Por-Lwi in fini vot pu en lagrev zeneral.
U kav lir let la isi.
Nu mark nu prezans Samdi 11 Ziyet, 13h, Sant Sosial Mari Ren de Lape ki truv anfas Lanbasad de Frans, Por-Lwi.
Wi. Kuma tiart la montre nu mem si nu kontinie gayn sa to krwasans fatra mwayin de 3.3% ki nun gayne ant 2006 ek 2024 lor prosin 10 an pwa BRP dan lekonomi (GDP) pu bese de 7.8% a 7%. Nun fer lipotez ki to linflasion prosin 10 an pu an mwayen seki li fin ete ant 2001 ek 2024. Aster si nu gayn 5.1% de krwasans mwayen be BRP pu reprezant selman 5.9% GDP. 4.5% si mwayen krwasans GDP la vin 8%.
Donk tre sutenab. Selman sa de dernie bidze inbesil kin prezante la pu kontinie diminie nu to krwasans parski li kontinie asfixie lekonomi parey kuma tu ban bidze depi 2006. Ramgoolam ankor ena letan pu amen ban sanzman ki bizin dan finance bill pu bidze 2026/27.
Nu ti deza kone ki striktir taxasion insutenab ki ti kumanse ek flat tax 15% Sithanen an 2006 in kaziman rwin nu pei. Par kont SoE in rod fer kwar ki problem in leve selman dernie 10 an. Ki fos. E ban azisteman ki SoE in fer pu GDP ase insinifian (0.16% de diferans pu 2022) par rapor a katastrof kot Moris retruv li depi 20 an.
Pu fer sa nu kumans par estim komie GDP manke depi 2005 par rapor a target krwasans 8% ki Sithanen ti dir nu pu gayne ek so flat tax 15%. Ant 2006 ek 2024 fin mank 6,176 milyar rupi GDP (lamone 2024). Anu get depans guvernmantal pu ledikasion. Dan bidze 2025/26 sa depans la reprezant 3% GDP. Sa ve dir ant 2006 ek 2024 nun depans 185 milyar rupi an mwins (3% x 6,176 milyar). Eski 3% sifizan? Sesel depans 4.3%. Si nu ti depans kuma Sesel be nun depans 266 milyar rupi an mwins lor sa period 19 an la.
Pu lasante mank 154 milyar rupi e se akoz sa mem ki system la fin mari deteriore. Sesel depans 2X plis ki nu e si nu ti fer kuma zot be mank 309 milyar rupi de depans dan nu system lasante piblik lor period ki nu pe konsidere.
O total 1,235 milyar rupi anplis ti bizin rant dan lakes guvernman ziska lafin 2024 si reveni guvernman reprezant 20% GDP. Pu 2025/26 li reprezant 30%. Ek sa rasio la be 1,853 milyar rupi anplis ti bizin rant dan lakes la.
Nun usi azut ban kolon pu trwa lezot krwasans mwayin, 7%, 6% ek 5.1% (nu to krwasans mwayin ant 1968 ek 2005). Mem a 5.1% 487 milyar rupi anplis ti bizin rant dan lakes guvernman.
Byinsir ler li rant dan lakes la en parti ti kav met dan en Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). Si nu ti investi 50% ban kas ki ti bizin rant dan lakes leta (1,835 milyar) dan sa SWF la a 8% zordi li ti pu vo 1,116 milyar rupi. Ki ti en zafer ase normal pu en pei ek otan dimun malin kuma Moris.
Recall that the Sithanen Toohrooh (ST) is the cumulative difference between the GDP that was supposed to be generated by the 15% flat tax and its actual number. Given that we never grew at the expected 8% rate promised by Dr. TINAnen during the past nineteen years – average growth rates between 2006 and 2024 is 3.4% or less than half the target – except in one year and that too only because the economy had contracted by nearly 15% in 2020 due to Covid it has steadily been increasing since 2006 and together with some of the most catastrophic policy decisions ever have fairly disintegrated our great and beautiful country. So much so that the ST reached Rs6 trillion in 2024 rupees a few weeks before voters produced the third 60-0 of our post-independence history.
Clearly and as the chart confirms most of that GDP gap happened on Pravind Jugnauth's watch (almost 78% of it) with SAJ accounting for 8.5% (Roshi Bhadain was in government during this time) and Navin Ramgoolam 13.5% of the total. For ease of calculation this breakdown assumes that SAJ, PJ and NR took over at the start of 2015, 2017 and 2025 which is not exactly a lot of violence to the facts. To be sure the shape of the chart depends essentially on the tax structure and given that all three PMs since 2006 have stuck with one that was unsustainable and overall very regressive it would not have made a big difference if the order of their stints was altered. It would still have been 20 years of extreme voodoo economics or if you prefer Shaitanomics.
The annual £90m we've apparently been contemplating to receive for the Chagos Islands will not matter that much even with the front-loading because it will be inconsequential compared to the ongoing damage caused by the ruinous tax structure. The current PM who wanted a fourth term so as to leave a legacy – it's atrociously negative after three just like PJ's is after eight years as PM – should have presented a budget at the end of last November or early December with a sustainable tax structure to dramatically slow down the fiscal rot and let Mauritius start being Mauritius again. This would have prevented the ST from increasing by about another Rs500 billion by the end of next month and NR's share of the mess to 20.4%. Add another half a trillion rupees till the close of 2025 if the June 5th budget keeps the same regressive and ruinous tax structure and see Ramgoolam's share of the ST rise to 26.2%. More if the new doses of voodoo economics in ADC's electoral manifesto are implemented.
Of course the Rs6 trillion ST translates into Rs1.2 trillion of revenue missing in the government coffers – which would have meant zero public debt right now plus Rs500 billion growing in a nice sovereign wealth fund if all we could have managed was the preservation of capital – assuming the latter accounts for a conservative 20% of national production and a private sector GDP shortfall of Rs4.8 trillion.
For sure the mile wide support the government received six months ago was only inch deep and that in many fields Mauritius has been in junk territory for many years. If common sense doesn't make a big comeback in a few weeks the risk that the social elastic will snap will keep on increasing from its already and unnecessarily very dangerous level.
How Sithanen was manipulating his budget numbers between 2005 and 2010.
The eternal joke of little room to manoeuvre. Interview to Jimmy Jean-Louis on Pravind Jugnauth's first budget after GE2010.
Why Sithanen budgets became non-events.
The sharpest report on Mauritius in a long time.
First Lutchmeenaraidoo budget in 25 years.
The situation just before Covid-19.
Understanding budget numbers in 2013.
Why Sithanen policies have been an abject failure.
Fact-checking important things.
A downloadable gem to understand Mauritius thoroughly.
How bad has been the war in Ukraine for Mauritius?
Fact-checking is the lifeblood of democracies. So here's a mega transfusion for the Mauritian democracy.
Fact-checking SAJ on a popular topic.
Fact-checking Pravind on the tram.
It came as a shock to people who had voted for the Alliance of Change as they haven't forgotten how Rama Sithanen had badly messed up their livelihoods during his last stint as Minister of Finance between 2005 and 2010 with an extreme version of trickle-down economics. It was so bad that he could not be given a ticket – a first for an outgoing FM – in GE2010 and didn't take the risk of running as an independent candidate. Of course before that the then PM had to give a second Presidential term to SAJ and help get PJ elected in the 2009 by-election to prove his goodwill before sealing an alliance with the MSM so as to avoid electoral mayhem. He was also not elected in GE2014 and GE2019 and that too in two different constituencies while for GE2024 the risk was too great for Ramgoolam to give him a chance to return to parliament.
The 70-year-old Sithanen has also made a number of disturbing statements. Here's one.
