Anu Mizir Latak Zeneralize Lor Leta Providans

Pu fer sa nu kumans par estim komie GDP manke depi 2005 par rapor a target krwasans 8% ki Sithanen ti dir nu pu gayne ek so flat tax 15%. Ant 2006 ek 2024 fin mank 6,176 milyar rupi GDP (lamone 2024). Anu get depans guvernmantal pu ledikasion. Dan bidze 2025/26 sa depans la reprezant 3% GDP. Sa ve dir ant 2006 ek 2024 nun depans 185 milyar rupi an mwins (3% x 6,176 milyar). Eski 3% sifizan? Sesel depans 4.3%. Si nu ti depans kuma Sesel be nun depans 266 milyar rupi an mwins lor sa period 19 an la.

Pu lasante mank 154 milyar rupi e se akoz sa mem ki system la fin mari deteriore. Sesel depans 2X plis ki nu e si nu ti fer kuma zot be mank 309 milyar rupi de depans dan nu system lasante piblik lor period ki nu pe konsidere.

O total 1,235 milyar rupi anplis ti bizin rant dan lakes guvernman ziska lafin 2024 si reveni guvernman reprezant 20% GDP. Pu 2025/26 li reprezant 30%. Ek sa rasio la be 1,853 milyar rupi anplis ti bizin rant dan lakes la.

Nun usi azut ban kolon pu trwa lezot krwasans mwayin, 7%, 6% ek 5.1% (nu to krwasans mwayin ant 1968 ek 2005). Mem a 5.1% 487 milyar rupi anplis ti bizin rant dan lakes guvernman.

Byinsir ler li rant dan lakes la en parti ti kav met dan en Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). Si nu ti investi 50% ban kas ki ti bizin rant dan lakes leta (1,835 milyar) dan sa SWF la a 8% zordi li ti pu vo 1,116 milyar rupi. Ki ti en zafer ase normal pu en pei ek otan dimun malin kuma Moris.

Morisyin Pe Araze Ek Sanzman Pansion Vieyes

Depi ki Ramgoolam in anonse dan so bidze ki pe repus laz elizibilite pansion vieyes (BRP) par 5 an a 65 an lepep Moris lor santie de ger. E avek rezon. Pe dir nu ki li insutenab parski li reprezant 7.8% GDP e sa sif la pu kontinie ogmante. Seki insutenab se flat tax 15% ki Sithanen ti servi pu frir nu lekonomi apartir 2006 ek benediksion Ramgoolam e ki tu guvernman kin vini apre in garde pli u mwin.

Get sa, Sithanen ti dir nu ki ti pu gayn 8% krwasans an mwayen ek so pwazon me anfet nu pan gayn mem lamwatie sa to la lor dernie 19 an – nun gayn zis 3.4% e sa fin koz en mank a gayne de Rs1,200 milyar rupi dan lakes guvernman a lafin 2024. Si nu ti gayn 8% BRP an 2024 ti pu vo zis 3.4% GDP. 5.7% si nu ti gayn krwasans mwayen ki nun gayne depi lindepandans ziska 2005. Dan tiart lao nu montre usi so pwa pu de lot to krwasans.

Seki pli komik ladan se telman flat tax 15% Sithanen fin andomaz nu lekonomi ek nu pei ki Ramgoolam in ogmant to ki ban gro saler peye selman pu trwa an. Apre trwa an ki arive, nu rekumans frir lekonomi e nu re koste ek stati diunk de Moody's?

Solision la li sinp, li gard "fair-share contribution" pu tultan, li elimin ban depans siperfli kuma ranz ankor sime (fin ranz 1,035km sime ant 2006 ek 2022 donk bizin met en poze ar sa) e li inplemant ban bon politik. De tut le fason pena sa ni dan manifest elektoral ni dan program guvernmantal e si li anvi fer sa li bizin swa organiz en referandum u disut parlman pu diman elekter permision.

Sithanen Toohrooh Crosses £100 Billion

Recall that the Sithanen Toohrooh (ST) is the cumulative difference between the GDP that was supposed to be generated by the 15% flat tax and its actual number. Given that we never grew at the expected 8% rate promised by Dr. TINAnen during the past nineteen years – average growth rates between 2006 and 2024 is 3.4% or less than half the target – except in one year and that too only because the economy had contracted by nearly 15% in 2020 due to Covid it has steadily been increasing since 2006 and together with some of the most catastrophic policy decisions ever have fairly disintegrated our great and beautiful country. So much so that the ST reached Rs6 trillion in 2024 rupees a few weeks before voters produced the third 60-0 of our post-independence history.

Clearly and as the chart confirms most of that GDP gap happened on Pravind Jugnauth's watch (almost 78% of it) with SAJ accounting for 8.5% (Roshi Bhadain was in government during this time) and Navin Ramgoolam 13.5% of the total. For ease of calculation this breakdown assumes that SAJ, PJ and NR took over at the start of 2015, 2017 and 2025 which is not exactly a lot of violence to the facts. To be sure the shape of the chart depends essentially on the tax structure and given that all three PMs since 2006 have stuck with one that was unsustainable and overall very regressive it would not have made a big difference if the order of their stints was altered. It would still have been 20 years of extreme voodoo economics or if you prefer Shaitanomics.

The annual £90m we've apparently been contemplating to receive for the Chagos Islands will not matter that much even with the front-loading because it will be inconsequential compared to the ongoing damage caused by the ruinous tax structure. The current PM who wanted a fourth term so as to leave a legacy – it's atrociously negative after three just like PJ's is after eight years as PM – should have presented a budget at the end of last November or early December with a sustainable tax structure to dramatically slow down the fiscal rot and let Mauritius start being Mauritius again. This would have prevented the ST from increasing by about another Rs500 billion by the end of next month and NR's share of the mess to 20.4%. Add another half a trillion rupees till the close of 2025 if the June 5th budget keeps the same regressive and ruinous tax structure and see Ramgoolam's share of the ST rise to 26.2%. More if the new doses of voodoo economics in ADC's electoral manifesto are implemented.

Of course the Rs6 trillion ST translates into Rs1.2 trillion of revenue missing in the government coffers – which would have meant zero public debt right now plus Rs500 billion growing in a nice sovereign wealth fund if all we could have managed was the preservation of capital – assuming the latter accounts for a conservative 20% of national production and a private sector GDP shortfall of Rs4.8 trillion.

For sure the mile wide support the government received six months ago was only inch deep and that in many fields Mauritius has been in junk territory for many years. If common sense doesn't make a big comeback in a few weeks the risk that the social elastic will snap will keep on increasing from its already and unnecessarily very dangerous level.

Mauritius Should Showcase the Sithanen Flat Tax Hell

We should make sure all 50-odd African countries are in attendance along with two university buddies. Then bring up the above table on the screen while a fresh round of gato-pima is served. And explain that by the end of last year Mauritius had about Rs1,800 billion of GDP missing compared to what the 8% growth the flat tax was supposed to generate – that’s 36 times how much GDP is roughly expected to fall this year from where it was at the end of 2019. If we assume a very conservative 20% cut for government revenue and the monies are left in a drawer (they are not reinvested) then there is more than Rs350bn of government revenue missing. This could have been placed in a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) that would have easily got us over the bump in the road that the pandemic is now creating. 

But we should have increased the share of government revenue to the OECD average of 35% as our population has been aging since 2005, to improve our welfare state and to bring back retirement age to 55 years so we mitigate our serious brain-drain problem. This would have boosted the SWF to Rs623bn. Even if we had grown at 6.5% over the past fourteen years there would have been between 195bn to 342bn rupees available to prepare us for any tough situation. Why is 5% in the table? It’s our average growth for the fourteen years – a period of progressive and sustainable taxation – before Sithanen started screwing up the economy and Mauritius big time. So even in this worst case scenario there would have been Rs58bn-Rs101bn of extra government revenue available for a bad year like 2020. Without compromising the independence of the BoM, destroying our savings culture and sending our rupee into a tailspin. 

Minister Padayachy has increased personal top tax rates to 40%. He had little choice. We don’t want to have a massive social crisis.