Lepep Pe Desan Lor Sime Pu Ki Ran So BRP

E aret latak lor so leta providans ki anpes 1/3 Morisyin tom dan lamizer. Ena pagli mami ki alor ki nu system lasante pibilk in krash ti dir resaman ki 18.5 milyar rupi ki nu depanse ladan en fardo mari lur. Anfet si ti bizin depans mem pursantaz GDP ki Sesel e nu ti gayn krwasans 8% ki ti sipoze gayne ek flat tax 15% Sithanen be nu ti bizin depans 93.2 milyar rupi u 5X plis.

Nu mark nu prezans Samdi 11 Ziyet, 13h, Sant Sosial Mari Ren de Lape ki truv anfas Lanbasad de Frans, Por-Lwi.

Eski BRP Iniversel A 60 An Sutenab?

Wi. Kuma tiart la montre nu mem si nu kontinie gayn sa to krwasans fatra mwayin de 3.3% ki nun gayne ant 2006 ek 2024 lor prosin 10 an pwa BRP dan lekonomi (GDP) pu bese de 7.8% a 7%. Nun fer lipotez ki to linflasion prosin 10 an pu an mwayen seki li fin ete ant 2001 ek 2024. Aster si nu gayn 5.1% de krwasans mwayen be BRP pu reprezant selman 5.9% GDP. 4.5% si mwayen krwasans GDP la vin 8%.

Donk tre sutenab. Selman sa de dernie bidze inbesil kin prezante la pu kontinie diminie nu to krwasans parski li kontinie asfixie lekonomi parey kuma tu ban bidze depi 2006. Ramgoolam ankor ena letan pu amen ban sanzman ki bizin dan finance bill pu bidze 2026/27.

Dawnlod Nu Liv Gratis Pu Konpran En Ta Zafer Mari Vit

Pu kumanse par palab ki pe fer depi 12 mwa lor kifer in kokin pansion vieyes. Apre, pu ki rezon system lasante piblik in krash. Nu osi met diyl Sagos dan perspektiv ki bizin. Ena osi en sapit lor reform elektoral. Antu 10 sapit pu met en ta linformasion dan lame sitwayin pu relev deba dan pei. En ta lekol kuyon pu ferme la. Nek gete u.

Meyer version (miltimedia) se lor u laparey Apple.

Version PDF.

State of Economy Pan Fer Nu Vin Mwins Kuyon

Nu ti deza kone ki striktir taxasion insutenab ki ti kumanse ek flat tax 15% Sithanen an 2006 in kaziman rwin nu pei. Par kont SoE in rod fer kwar ki problem in leve selman dernie 10 an. Ki fos. E ban azisteman ki SoE in fer pu GDP ase insinifian (0.16% de diferans pu 2022) par rapor a katastrof kot Moris retruv li depi 20 an.

Kuma tiart la montre nu, pu 2022, GDP diferan par mwins ki 1 milyar rupi. 1 milyar rupi se buku larzan me lor 571.2 milyar pa sa kantite la. Me kestion ki bizin poze se komie GDP ti bizin ete an 2022 dapre prozeksion 8% krwasans Sithanen ler li ti met so flat tax. Ler nu fer en ti kalkil nu truve ki GDP ti bizin 1,254 milyar u 2.2X nivo dan SoE (en diferans Rs683.7 milyar). Pu 2023, GDP selon SoE ti plis ki 21 milyar rupi pli tipti ki sif ofisiel (3.26% de diferans) ki ase konsekan me konparativman a 1,442 milyar ki GDP (2.25X pli gro ki sif SoE u en mank a gayne de Rs800.7 milyar) ti bizin ete selon previzion Sithanen u mirak ekonomik mem sa 21 milyar la ase tipti.

Pu 2024, koreksion GDP SoE ankor pli eleve, Rs36.3 milyar (preske 5%), me lekar ek previzion GDP pu flat tax 15% ankor pli gran, Rs915.5 milyar u 2.31X sif SoE. Me sa SoE pan dir nu.

Anu Mizir Latak Zeneralize Lor Leta Providans

Pu fer sa nu kumans par estim komie GDP manke depi 2005 par rapor a target krwasans 8% ki Sithanen ti dir nu pu gayne ek so flat tax 15%. Ant 2006 ek 2024 fin mank 6,176 milyar rupi GDP (lamone 2024). Anu get depans guvernmantal pu ledikasion. Dan bidze 2025/26 sa depans la reprezant 3% GDP. Sa ve dir ant 2006 ek 2024 nun depans 185 milyar rupi an mwins (3% x 6,176 milyar). Eski 3% sifizan? Sesel depans 4.3%. Si nu ti depans kuma Sesel be nun depans 266 milyar rupi an mwins lor sa period 19 an la.

Pu lasante mank 154 milyar rupi e se akoz sa mem ki system la fin mari deteriore. Sesel depans 2X plis ki nu e si nu ti fer kuma zot be mank 309 milyar rupi de depans dan nu system lasante piblik lor period ki nu pe konsidere.

O total 1,235 milyar rupi anplis ti bizin rant dan lakes guvernman ziska lafin 2024 si reveni guvernman reprezant 20% GDP. Pu 2025/26 li reprezant 30%. Ek sa rasio la be 1,853 milyar rupi anplis ti bizin rant dan lakes la.

Nun usi azut ban kolon pu trwa lezot krwasans mwayin, 7%, 6% ek 5.1% (nu to krwasans mwayin ant 1968 ek 2005). Mem a 5.1% 487 milyar rupi anplis ti bizin rant dan lakes guvernman.

Byinsir ler li rant dan lakes la en parti ti kav met dan en Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). Si nu ti investi 50% ban kas ki ti bizin rant dan lakes leta (1,835 milyar) dan sa SWF la a 8% zordi li ti pu vo 1,116 milyar rupi. Ki ti en zafer ase normal pu en pei ek otan dimun malin kuma Moris.

Morisyin Pe Araze Ek Sanzman Pansion Vieyes

Depi ki Ramgoolam in anonse dan so bidze ki pe repus laz elizibilite pansion vieyes (BRP) par 5 an a 65 an lepep Moris lor santie de ger. E avek rezon. Pe dir nu ki li insutenab parski li reprezant 7.8% GDP e sa sif la pu kontinie ogmante. Seki insutenab se flat tax 15% ki Sithanen ti servi pu frir nu lekonomi apartir 2006 ek benediksion Ramgoolam e ki tu guvernman kin vini apre in garde pli u mwin.

Get sa, Sithanen ti dir nu ki ti pu gayn 8% krwasans an mwayen ek so pwazon me anfet nu pan gayn mem lamwatie sa to la lor dernie 19 an – nun gayn zis 3.4% e sa fin koz en mank a gayne de Rs1,200 milyar rupi dan lakes guvernman a lafin 2024. Si nu ti gayn 8% BRP an 2024 ti pu vo zis 3.4% GDP. 5.7% si nu ti gayn krwasans mwayen ki nun gayne depi lindepandans ziska 2005. Dan tiart lao nu montre usi so pwa pu de lot to krwasans.

Seki pli komik ladan se telman flat tax 15% Sithanen fin andomaz nu lekonomi ek nu pei ki Ramgoolam in ogmant to ki ban gro saler peye selman pu trwa an. Apre trwa an ki arive, nu rekumans frir lekonomi e nu re koste ek stati diunk de Moody's?

Solision la li sinp, li gard "fair-share contribution" pu tultan, li elimin ban depans siperfli kuma ranz ankor sime (fin ranz 1,035km sime ant 2006 ek 2022 donk bizin met en poze ar sa) e li inplemant ban bon politik. De tut le fason pena sa ni dan manifest elektoral ni dan program guvernmantal e si li anvi fer sa li bizin swa organiz en referandum u disut parlman pu diman elekter permision.

Sithanen Toohrooh Crosses £100 Billion

Recall that the Sithanen Toohrooh (ST) is the cumulative difference between the GDP that was supposed to be generated by the 15% flat tax and its actual number. Given that we never grew at the expected 8% rate promised by Dr. TINAnen during the past nineteen years – average growth rates between 2006 and 2024 is 3.4% or less than half the target – except in one year and that too only because the economy had contracted by nearly 15% in 2020 due to Covid it has steadily been increasing since 2006 and together with some of the most catastrophic policy decisions ever have fairly disintegrated our great and beautiful country. So much so that the ST reached Rs6 trillion in 2024 rupees a few weeks before voters produced the third 60-0 of our post-independence history.

Clearly and as the chart confirms most of that GDP gap happened on Pravind Jugnauth's watch (almost 78% of it) with SAJ accounting for 8.5% (Roshi Bhadain was in government during this time) and Navin Ramgoolam 13.5% of the total. For ease of calculation this breakdown assumes that SAJ, PJ and NR took over at the start of 2015, 2017 and 2025 which is not exactly a lot of violence to the facts. To be sure the shape of the chart depends essentially on the tax structure and given that all three PMs since 2006 have stuck with one that was unsustainable and overall very regressive it would not have made a big difference if the order of their stints was altered. It would still have been 20 years of extreme voodoo economics or if you prefer Shaitanomics.

The annual £90m we've apparently been contemplating to receive for the Chagos Islands will not matter that much even with the front-loading because it will be inconsequential compared to the ongoing damage caused by the ruinous tax structure. The current PM who wanted a fourth term so as to leave a legacy – it's atrociously negative after three just like PJ's is after eight years as PM – should have presented a budget at the end of last November or early December with a sustainable tax structure to dramatically slow down the fiscal rot and let Mauritius start being Mauritius again. This would have prevented the ST from increasing by about another Rs500 billion by the end of next month and NR's share of the mess to 20.4%. Add another half a trillion rupees till the close of 2025 if the June 5th budget keeps the same regressive and ruinous tax structure and see Ramgoolam's share of the ST rise to 26.2%. More if the new doses of voodoo economics in ADC's electoral manifesto are implemented.

Of course the Rs6 trillion ST translates into Rs1.2 trillion of revenue missing in the government coffers – which would have meant zero public debt right now plus Rs500 billion growing in a nice sovereign wealth fund if all we could have managed was the preservation of capital – assuming the latter accounts for a conservative 20% of national production and a private sector GDP shortfall of Rs4.8 trillion.

For sure the mile wide support the government received six months ago was only inch deep and that in many fields Mauritius has been in junk territory for many years. If common sense doesn't make a big comeback in a few weeks the risk that the social elastic will snap will keep on increasing from its already and unnecessarily very dangerous level.

Happy International Fact-checking Day!

Fact-checking is the lifeblood of democracies. So here's a mega transfusion for the Mauritian democracy.

Fact-checking Sithanen.

Fact-checking Subron.

Fact-checking Navin.

Fact-checking SAJ on a popular topic.

Fact-checking Pravind on the tram.

Fact-checking Arvin.

Fact-checking Berenger on two important issues.

Fact-checking playlist.

Fact-checking gem to download on your Apple device.

Ramgoolam Appoints Toxic Bean-Counter As BoM Governor

It came as a shock to people who had voted for the Alliance of Change as they haven't forgotten how Rama Sithanen had badly messed up their livelihoods during his last stint as Minister of Finance between 2005 and 2010 with an extreme version of trickle-down economics. It was so bad that he could not be given a ticket – a first for an outgoing FM – in GE2010 and didn't take the risk of running as an independent candidate. Of course before that the then PM had to give a second Presidential term to SAJ and help get PJ elected in the 2009 by-election to prove his goodwill before sealing an alliance with the MSM so as to avoid electoral mayhem. He was also not elected in GE2014 and GE2019 and that too in two different constituencies while for GE2024 the risk was too great for Ramgoolam to give him a chance to return to parliament.

The 70-year-old Sithanen has also made a number of disturbing statements. Here's one.

And here's some more.

Why Recall Elections Are Seriously Overdue in Mauritius

Let Uver a Promye Minis

Promye Minis,

Striktir taksasyon li pa en badinaz. Flat tax fin tuy buku Morisyin dernye 15 an. Dan en pandemi li tuy buku buku plis dimun. 310 an Oktob si nu fer en analiz konservater ban sif leta sivil ek la si pa fer nanye 744 an Novam. Total pu vin 1,448 la semen prosen. Suinvestisman dan nu system lasante piblik depi 2006 li par dizen de milyar rupi. U pe viv probableman ban moman pli determinan u karyer politik. U bizin fer de zafer tudswit:

1. Met en lokdawn de semen. 

2. Prezant en mini-bidze kot u remet taksasyon korporatif a 30% dan la semen. 

Sinon nu pwal perdi partu la.

Mersi.

Sanjay Jagatsingh

Worse Here, Worst Likely On Its Way

Mauritius To Fully Reopen Borders At the Worst Possible Time

October 1 is not looking good. We’ve recently recorded some of the fastest growths in Covid cases in the world that has placed us on CDC’s list of very high infection risk. Deaths have also reached record levels and there is a very wide consensus that authorities are heavily underreporting them – less than half of the 160 covid deaths have been attributed to the virus including only 9% of the 11 people who died with the virus in the last three days. 

The ambient denial can be explained by the fact that the trickle-down economics pursued over the past fifteen years have delivered an economy that’s less than half the one expected. While the vaccination rate is above 60% it will not be enough to prevent the situation from worsening especially when we hear the reply of the President of the union of workers of the Ministry of Health when asked whether a patient is safe when she goes to hospital these days: “I’d rather not answer.”

Bizin Deklar Nu System Elektoral Kom En Trezor Nasyonal

Mauritius Should Showcase the Sithanen Flat Tax Hell

We should make sure all 50-odd African countries are in attendance along with two university buddies. Then bring up the above table on the screen while a fresh round of gato-pima is served. And explain that by the end of last year Mauritius had about Rs1,800 billion of GDP missing compared to what the 8% growth the flat tax was supposed to generate – that’s 36 times how much GDP is roughly expected to fall this year from where it was at the end of 2019. If we assume a very conservative 20% cut for government revenue and the monies are left in a drawer (they are not reinvested) then there is more than Rs350bn of government revenue missing. This could have been placed in a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) that would have easily got us over the bump in the road that the pandemic is now creating. 

But we should have increased the share of government revenue to the OECD average of 35% as our population has been aging since 2005, to improve our welfare state and to bring back retirement age to 55 years so we mitigate our serious brain-drain problem. This would have boosted the SWF to Rs623bn. Even if we had grown at 6.5% over the past fourteen years there would have been between 195bn to 342bn rupees available to prepare us for any tough situation. Why is 5% in the table? It’s our average growth for the fourteen years – a period of progressive and sustainable taxation – before Sithanen started screwing up the economy and Mauritius big time. So even in this worst case scenario there would have been Rs58bn-Rs101bn of extra government revenue available for a bad year like 2020. Without compromising the independence of the BoM, destroying our savings culture and sending our rupee into a tailspin. 

Minister Padayachy has increased personal top tax rates to 40%. He had little choice. We don’t want to have a massive social crisis. 

Savings Likely to Hit At Least 60-year Low

It was there already in 2018 when it matched the 9% it reached after intense cyclone Danielle inflicted a 17.6% contraction to the Mauritian economy. As the table shows savings increased by a tiny bit last year but not enough to avoid the top three worst spots before COVID-19 arrived on the scene. We must also note that SSR is the only Prime Minister to have his two entries in the table linked to two intense cyclones. The other three PMs appear there because of two things. The first is the Sithanen flat tax which has broken the economy. The other is the removal of the tax exemptions which the people of Mauritius had been using to set up their long-term financial plans. 

The situation for Pravind Jugnauth is pretty worrying as all his three years as PM are very bad years for this fundamental statistic of economic resilience. Given that the figure for this year will likely go at the top of the table he should bring back some basic common sense by restoring a sustainable and progressive tax structure and personal deductions. This should start compensating for his extremely poor economic management of the past five years. 

Why Our Government Hasn’t Been Functioning Properly

Three words. Sithanen flat tax. As it never produced the higher growth rates (8%) our central government has been piling up so much debt – increasing from a total of Rs106bn to Rs278bn between 2005 and 2018 – that it had to resort to creative accounting, push up the debt ceiling several times and has failed to solve many national problems. The USD has also appreciated by one-third against our rupee over the past 15 years. Not a good sign. Definitely not what you’d expect from a Tiger. But pandemics have such a way of bringing back sanity. 

Another Reason Why Doing Business is Wrong Target For Mauritius

Did Trickle-down Economics Work in Mauritius?

The Rise and Rise of Parti Malin

It’s a real pity that the by-election in no. 7 was not held earlier because we might have seen something historic. Indeed Danrajsingh Aubeeluck (DA), the unmistakable leader of Parti Malin, could have received a number of votes close to the one the MMM candidate got. See the MMM has been on a steady decline for a long time and managed only 14% in the last by-election which took place in an urban riding. Depending on which candidate it picked the latter might have collected only 3-4% in no. 7 with DA getting around 1-2% – not unreasonable given his improving performance shown in chart 1 – if not more given how the voting pattern has been changing. Citizens after all have become increasingly smart. 

 

Mr. Malin has also been doing a lot better in general elections quadrupling his vote share in a decade in no. 17 (see 2) and clocking his best rank ever in the riding of Ramgoolam in 2014. He's now running in the same constituency as the outgoing PM with the aim of keeping PJ out of parliament. That's not as far-fetched as you might think given that the 793 votes he collected represent about 23% of missing votes that would have sent Ramgoolam back to parliament.