Earth And Covid-19

Who’s Got the Best Road Safety Record?

At an average of 151 road fatalities per year in office – fraction of year in office greater than half is attributed the full year – Navin Ramgoolam has the worst record (see 1). Barely better is Pravind Jugnauth. Bérenger is roughly between SAJ and PJ. The best is SSR. He would have had about 178 fewer deaths than SAJ had his prime ministership been five years longer. The two Ramgoolams have stints in office of the same length but NR’s tally is 424 higher. This is rather bad given all the progress that has been made in the field of road safety for the past three decades. And we have to remember that personal computers were not as ubiquitous before 1982 as they’ve been for the past twenty years.

Chart 2 confirms how much we’ve fallen behind Singapore. While she has seen the total number of road deaths fall decade after decade Mauritius has seen her numbers increase by 40% in the second decade and literally stay flat for the next two. This has caused the gap between our totals to narrow substantially and it might even disappear by the end of next year. Which would be another source of embarrassment for us given that our population is about four and half times lower. But the next decade can be a lot better if we do two things. One is to ask candidates currently seeking our votes how they intend to bring these numbers down fast. The other is to assess the credibility of these plans. 

Why Singapore's GDP Per Capita is 2X Japan's

On a PPP basis that is. And more than three times that of Malaysia. So location doesn't explain everything. Making the purchase of cars difficult has helped quite a bit. It was not a bad idea to keep good ties with the British either – something which Mauritius also did – and having the government intervene heavily. 

PJ Could Top Grim Table By Year-End

The one for ten years of biggest road fatalities. A word of caution though. In two years – 1995 and 2000 – there was a change of PM so the corresponding numbers don't entirely 'belong' to the PMs listed for them. We allocated the full year to the PM who was in office for more than half of the year.

PJ who is already in the list along with three former PMs – Bérenger's first entry of 144 for 2004 is at the 17th spot – is likely to see his number for 2018 go all the way to the top under three scenarios. The first two are if the last third of this year relative to the first two is like those for 2016 and 2014. The third if we extrapolate the total of 115 deaths reached at the end of August. Another entry might go in the middle of the table if 2018 is more like 2015. Of course all four entries would bump his entry for 2017 – his first year as PM – out of this ranking.

We haven't made good progress in road safety for way too long. And in the last thirteen years the economy-breaking Sithanen flat tax and other indecent fiscal exemptions have ensured that we didn't have enough money to bring road deaths down in a significant and persistent manner. Unlike say Singapore which has seen road fatalities decline in every one of the past ten years except two – here they have been increasing for each of the last three years with Bodha as Minister – reducing them literally by half. The type of tax structure you have determines the number of people who die on roads. So this makes the flat tax akin to a drone assassination programme. And exposes the absurdity of calls to transform the revenues of the dead sugar industry into a guaranteed fixed-deposit.

Road Fatalities in Singapore Fall By 13.5%

In 2017. It was the sixth consecutive year that the number of people dying on the roads there was smaller than the previous one. It's been falling so much that it reached a 37-year low. In fact so much progress has been made in the city-state that more people have been dying on Mauritian koltar for two straight years although Singapore has about four and half times more people.

With one road fatality every 48 hours here since the beginning of year you not only have to expect the Southeast Asian Tiger to have fewer road fatalities for a third year in a row – they had 22 for the first two months of 2018 – but more worrying is that if the remaining nine months are going to be like the first three we should be hitting a 39-year high with about 183 deaths. This would come after four straight years of increase in road fatalities.

Until a few years back the chart above might have been branded unfair to Singapore because of its much larger population. Not anymore after smart policy-makers have understood that recent improvements in policy tools make it possible to save a lot more lives. And that too a lot faster. At a minimum we could drastically increase the number of random and not so random breath tests when and where it matters most. This would not be the stupidest idea we've ever had and make ansam pa les koltar tuy nu fami ring a bit less hollow than having the SMF help destroy Promenade Roland Armand for a tram which is not going to be there for long.

2017: The Year in Review

Q1: iPhone turns 10. Voters elect candidates wisely. Oxfam says income for bottom half hasn't grown for past three decades. Average performance for Mauritius. Countries use PISA to improve education system. Nation surprised to learn than history of Labour Party is larger than two Ramgoolams. Citizens evaluate ministers continuously. Metro Express not needed for now. Parliament goes live and direct. Sumputh resigns after PM finds package shocking.

Q2: Splitting the Sithanen toohrooh. Soornack explains how she made it. Le Pen gets closer to L'Elysee. Who is the fastest footballer? Two really dumb reasons we need party lists. Madhuri at fifty. MK said to fly understaffed planes. The Saint dead at 89. How you know you're not a big cat. Taxpayers handed multi-billion rupee bill. Top tax rates go up by 5%. Fighter jets have own sign language.

Q3: Meet the articulated bus. Referendum legislation can help avoid mayhem. Chester found dead. Singapore knows plenty. How Fowdar can help our democracy. Cleaners earning Rs1,500 per month have reason to smile. World discovers the SJ Theatre. Easy for Mauritius to boost its GDP by half. FPTP system allows general election to have recall component.

Q4: Why Mauritius is not in high-income group. Dead animal should be removed from coats of arms. They should be referred to as 30/3 and 3/5. A woman in the front row. Mauritius finds out she has an MP called Tarolah. Use the two o'clock rule to save lives. Simple tools to understand social contracts. Berenger makes new prediction. Podcast to find out things launched. December 2014 was worse than a 60-0. Look who's worried about inequality. 8 questions for voters. Voodoo economist is back. A plan for Mauritius. 4 out 5 voters don't vote for Boolell. 

3 Reasons We Are Not a High-income Country

The first one is land use. If we removed all the sugar and replaced it with what we have elsewhere our GDP per capita at the end of 2015 would have increased by 48.5% to $13,575. And given us access to the high-income club.

The next reason is currency policy. If we had kept our currency fixed at its 1985 level of 15.58 rupees to the USD -- not a lot to ask from a Tiger as the majestic cats have been known to increase their exports while their currencies appreciate -- our GDP per capita would have been 2.25X larger. That is it would have climbed to $20,608.

The final reason is the devastating effect of the 15% flat tax. If we had clocked the average 8% growth rates promised since 2005 our output per capita would have shot up to $13,136 in 2015. Or about 44% higher. Which is by the way roughly how much the crazy land use has cost us. And gives us precious information to assess relatively recent policies.

Finally if we had no sugar cane, had been very reasonable with our currency and had clipped the robust 8% growth our GDP per capita would have been $43,971 or 4.81X bigger than where it was at Christmas time in 2015. This of course would have been 83% of the corresponding number for a famous South-East Asian Tiger.

Miow.

What Does Singapore Know That We Don't?

Plenty. Let's take their transportation policy for example. Why have they been removing cars from their roads for three straight years? Btw, this has brought back the car pool there to levels not seen in 8 years. Well they are decreasing the number of cars because it is a very inefficient technology. A car is idle more than 90% of the time. So it's pretty unproductive. And it is costly in so many other ways: time wasted in traffic which could be put to better use, burning fuel, pollution, stress and so on. The so on has to include all the space it uses and the other dimensions of traffic that slow you down.

Now when you look at what is being done here it's hard not to conclude that our transportation policy is being crafted in a very amateurish manner. I was totally horrified to hear my friend Georges Chung – an excellent economics teacher at the HSC level but a rather lousy policy-maker – say that one of the assumptions in the transportation planning involving the Metro Express is that the number of cars would be increasing by 5% every year. He obviously hasn't had a good look at the data – he's not the only one for sure – and apprehended the consequences. And it's not the first time. Indeed he has been a huge advocate of 'competitive depreciation' for many many years even suggesting that it is painless. The relevant data seem to tell an entirely different story.

Nando Bodha appears quite overwhelmed too. He scrapped the point system a couple of years ago. Quite a sloppy decision. He's currently spending billions to decongest the road network. Enlisting the help of the Korean Expressway Corporation is not a proof of mindfulness. They couldn't care less to help you saddle yourself with a prehistoric technology as long as they get paid. One that requires the transformation of our sacred Champ de Mars into a dinosaur park. That too after the obliteration of La School.

We're far better off with a bus rapid system (BRT) and freezing duty-free privileges for a couple of years. It's time for Lepep to hit the pause button. And organise a referendum.

LKY's Son Plans to Leave Singapore

Lee Hsien Yang is the youngest child of the former PM. He issued a joint statement with his sister Lee Wei Ling yesterday expressing concern about the omnipresence of big brother. In this case they are referring to their elder sibling, Lee Hsien Loong, the current Prime Minister of Singapore.

At the centre of the dispute is their parents' house at 38 Oxley Road which LKY wanted demolished. Lee Hsien Loong wants to preserve it.

Currency Policy Incompatible With Feline DNA

GDP per capita for Mauritius was only $9,142 at the end of 2015. That placed us at spot 68. We would have done a lot better had we not adopted a policy of 'competitive depreciation' for the better of thirty years. If we had kept our currency fixed at its 1985 level -- which was not too much to ask from a Tiger -- then we'd be 32 spots higher. Or just above the Arabia of the Sauds. And in the company of other high-income countries.

We were also stuck below the $10,000 threshold because the Sithanen flat tax has broken our economy. Had we kept on growing at 5.5% since 2006 we'd be seven notches higher. Fourteen if the 8% growth rates promised by the bean-counter had materialised.

In the meantime another Tiger has confirmed her stripes. A combination of high growth rates and systematic currency appreciation -- 60% over the thirty-year period -- has pushed Singapore ahead of Germany, Sweden and even Denmark.

Only dimwits will believe that 'competitive depreciation' is painless.

What You Can Learn From the Audit Report

In 2014 MT paid Rs671 million as dividends to government. Which means that it paid Rs447 million to FT. That's almost five times the dividend paid by Airports of Mauritius. And close to eight times the one paid by SBM Holdings in the same year. MT dividend paid only Rs221 million in dividends in FY ending June 2016.

One quarter of government revenue came from debt in 2014 -- one fifth by mid-2016. Which explains why the Sithanen toohrooh has gotten so big. As if we needed more proof that the bean-counter has been a financial disaster. Public sector debt (PSD) stood at a quarter trillion rupees at end of June 2015. Two-thirds of the domestic portion of that debt was due by mid 2019. Public Debt Management Act has its own way of computing debt as a share of GDP. PSD increased to Rs275 billion by June 2016. On dit merci qui?

Consolidated Fund has a deficit of Rs52 billion. Hmm, must be the early harvest.

I stopped at page 62 of the report. Here are posts on previous editions. And here's one from Singapore.

What Happens When Justin Gets A Gift

If its value exceeds $200 he has to disclose it publicly. Within 30 days. This doesn't apply if the gift is from friend or family. But it covers any advantage they may have obtained. For instance he received a few bottles of whisky on last January 6 from the Ambassador of Guinea. Three days later cufflinks for his birthday from the Afghan Ambassador. And butterfly glasswork from Norway's crown prince last year. All the disclosures are available online.

The scrutiny doesn't stop there. The designer clothes the Canadian First Lady receives as gifts are also inventoried. Like the tuxedo suit by Pink Tartan. And the holiday at Aga Khan's home in the Bahamas. Journalists have also found that the Trudeau Foundation received about 10 times more money once Justin took over the leadership of the Liberal Party -- most of the donations came from overseas. And have mapped conference sponsorships against corresponding lobbying issues to highlight any potential conflicts of interest. Air Canada for example has lobbied 102 times over a two-year period.

Canada ranked 9th in the 2016 Transparency International Corruption Perception Index. Singapore was at spot no 7. Mauritius at 50.

Public Sector Has No Monopoly of Common Sense

Neither does our private sector. For example the 60,000 hectares of land under sugar cane will produce barely 1% of our GDP this year. That's roughly the size of Singapore which has the world's 36th largest economy. Which means that they generate 2,458X more value for every acre of land that we have under sugar cane. Hey, but don't worry they're not the gateway to Africa. Plus their national animal is not a lazy bird which died in the same year as Pascal. Probably of diabetes. We just need to make it clear to the world where in the open seas does that gateway start. And where it ends.

Judging the Overall Quality of A Country's Policies

A shortcut is to chart the value of its currency over a couple of decades. And if we compare the latter to the level of exports -- let's say for Mauritius and Singapore -- we get an indication of the strength of the local entrepreneurial fibre. Of course we can use our good old policy matrix. Or have a look at the land use. Or the type of bets that are made and at what cost. Traffic congestion is also a pretty good indicator (Istanbul has the world's worst traffic). And how can we forget fiscal policy?

So I guess we can gauge the DNA of a country pretty fast, eh?

LKY Dead At 91 As Singapore Turns 50

More Proof Crisis is Homemade

Recall that the bean-counters were quick to say that their 'reforms' had produced green shoots followed by an early harvest in 2007 and a bumper crop in 2008. That is easily disproved. They also said something else: that growth rates would have been a lot better had the Great Recession -- which began in 2008 and lasted 18 months -- not happened. And that as soon as conditions will get sunnier in the world things would improve for us because we're one of the world's most open economies. 

But as the above graphic shows, we didn't really rebound when times got better. Unlike the object of our economic fantasies: Singapore. We also know for a fact that a lot of the record poverty that was created has been produced well before 2008. And before Bheenick got appointed as Governor.

We also know what's holding us back.

La Crise Financiere A Bon Dos

What's The Deal With The New ID Cards?

Lalit wants the contract with Singapore cancelled. Which is what the MMM has asked. Hmm, I missed these episodes. So this new thingy is going to cost a billion rupees but there are some privacy vs. efficiency issues. Here's what I found.

P.S. The poll on municipal elections doesn't seem to be keeping the votes for long. Dunno why. Sorry about that.

Meet The ABS

In this drawn-to-scale chart, B is the fraction of Mauritius under sugar cane. A is the rest of our island. The corresponding squares in the lower half of the diagram are the contributions of these sectors to our economy: sugar is expected to account for only 1.4% of GDP in 2012.

And S which is barely greater than what we have under sugar cane is Singapore. I've put a question mark there to represent its off the charts economy -- roughly twice the size of our passport.

Clearly there is way too much land under sugar cane. We could start by following Lalit's advice of bizin plant manze lor later tablisman. This will make us more resilient because it will ease pressure off our trade relationship with the rest of the world and improve food security at the same time. And having more of A and less of B will significantly boost the rate at which decent jobs are created in Mauritius. Without the galloping inflation bean-counters are so fond of delivering.

We should also restore progressiveness in our tax laws so that the claim that our PM is a socialist starts to ring true. And to put our fiscal house back on a sustainable path. Finally if we replace sugar cane with trees on a sufficient scale this could help us secure some extraordinary bragging rights: having the world's best air quality. Which will provide Mauritius with a killer tagline: Go Ahead, Take a Deep Breath!

Singapore Never Chased Growth Desperately

Interesting speech by Lee Hsien Loong about the challenges faced by the city-state as growth rates are set to maintain their decades-long declining trend.