Why Le Pen Has Already Won

If Macron wins by a 20% margin today, the FN would have cut the 64% gap of its 2002 loss by almost 70%. That's a tectonic shift.

And who says the margin will be that wide?

Fifteen Years Later FN Again At Run-off Stage

But this time France is not shocked that the candidate from the far-right survived the first round of the presidential elections. Or that the two parties which have dominated the political scene as far back as people can remember are out of the race. Ms. Le Pen received about 4.5% more votes than her father Jean-Marie did when he beat Lionel Jospin by a little more than half a percentage point. Only to lose massively to Jacques Chirac by the biggest margin ever: 82%-18%.

This time it doesn't look that clear-cut though.