Why Dookun-Luchoomun Must Allow 3 Credits to Go Through This Time

Because she doesn’t want to make a massive blunder like Nando Bodha did in early 2015 when he scrapped the point system without assessing its effectiveness and replaced it with a more ‘user-friendly’ alternative. As the chart shows road fatalities for the past five years have never been lower than the level they reached in 2014. Unlike in Singapore (in green) where they’ve fallen in every one of those years save 2018 when they increased by two. In fact if we had managed to have their cumulative number of fatalities over that period – which is setting the bar too low given that they have four-and-a-half times more people than us – we would have saved 75 lives between 2015 and 2019. Mr. Bodha has also been working hard to make the traffic Frankenstein meaner and road-users have already noticed that his tram which he calls a metro didn’t solve anything as expected. 

Instead, Ms. Luchoomun should rather want to take 2020 to properly assess the life and academic trajectories of those thousands of citizens that were allowed in Lower Six with three credits for a number of years and to compare them with those of their friends that had a few more credits. This will provide her with the hard facts of the matter, essential ingredients for good decision-making. My hunch is that there will not be a big difference between the two groups. Definitely not large enough to take the kind of risk the Minister is currently assuming. Too much is at stake here. The more so that we may currently have the worst substance abuse problem in our history and our old industrial education system that relies too much on rote-learning is not adequate anymore for a hyper connected world. Besides Cambridge has computed that 70.93% of the most recent SC-takers have passed their exams – these overlapped an election campaign. That’s 13,235, not 5,518, and therefore means that the British examiner has deemed that even 2,129 of the 3,092 who got 1 credit have passed. Government should in fact allow everyone who took these exams to either have a place in Lower Six or in a polytechnic and to move ahead – Jony Ive isn’t going to be there forever.

Ms. Luchoomun will also want to contact the OECD fast so we participate in PISA 2021 and find out if we have improved from the 56th place we clocked in Maths in PISA 2009, the only time we ever participated in this serious survey. As for the 5 credits needed by the PSC they can be kept but arrangements must definitely be made so that SC exams are available every three months or better still online. The blah blah blah about the necessity of shutting out any student without five credits otherwise we’ll end up with a stupid elite will die out rapidly if we consider two facts. The first one is that our savings culture was killed by someone who did very well in his HSC Economics exam and then proceeded to the LSE on a special scholarship when one Kher Jagatsingh was Minister of Education. The other is that a Minister who has a first degree in law wanted to literally sell our clouds because he didn’t like the CWA hotline.

Worried parents should of course get in touch with their MPs and Ms. Luchoomun. Because we don’t have recall elections yet. 

2019: The Year in Review

Q1: Our parliament is too big. 5 reasons the LP/MMM alliance lost in 2014. Rekin dir non a simagri elektoral. Corporations should not fund political parties. TJC was set up against regressive backdrop. How Sweden became a safety champ. What makes Singapore wealthier than Japan. ICJ thinks UK should end occupation of Chagos. Piti depas papa.

Q2: Sithanen flat tax fuels more street protests. Voting on the roof of Europe begins. PJ against more women in parliament. Amritsar massacre turns 100. Fond du Sac learns compulsory acquisitions come in different flavours. For a vibrant democracy have these 5 ingredients. Perspective on flat tax damage. Tax policies should go in affidavits. Sithanen toohrooh could rise by Rs338bn by year-end. Norway bigger football powerhouse than Brazil.

Q3: Long wait over as Mauritius wins first IOIG. Pope to spend day with victim of trickle-down economics. Trees in Beau-Vallon have something in common with our saving culture. Toxic bean-counter self-praises himself. Why Bizlall should run in the general election? One Lord Mayor remembers another.

Q4: Did you enjoy Ramgoolam’s fourth term? Why dumping Gini coefficient is a good idea. Decomposing the 2014 defeat. Why Navin didn’t lose in 2010. Ramgoolam ena en nuvo palab. SSR has the best road-safety record. Intense cyclones didn’t destroy our resilience. Unproductive FDI doesn’t make up for collapse in savings. 10 narrowest general elections. Sugar has no future. Subron tries to fool us again. Who to vote for? Bérenger believes he’s the real miracle-man? God bless our FPTP system. Mauritius slides dangerously towards autocracy. Why SSR left a strong legacy. Fact-checking is oxygen of democracy. Let’s roll back drug use. 

Who’s Got the Best Road Safety Record?

At an average of 151 road fatalities per year in office – fraction of year in office greater than half is attributed the full year – Navin Ramgoolam has the worst record (see 1). Barely better is Pravind Jugnauth. Bérenger is roughly between SAJ and PJ. The best is SSR. He would have had about 178 fewer deaths than SAJ had his prime ministership been five years longer. The two Ramgoolams have stints in office of the same length but NR’s tally is 424 higher. This is rather bad given all the progress that has been made in the field of road safety for the past three decades. And we have to remember that personal computers were not as ubiquitous before 1982 as they’ve been for the past twenty years.

Chart 2 confirms how much we’ve fallen behind Singapore. While she has seen the total number of road deaths fall decade after decade Mauritius has seen her numbers increase by 40% in the second decade and literally stay flat for the next two. This has caused the gap between our totals to narrow substantially and it might even disappear by the end of next year. Which would be another source of embarrassment for us given that our population is about four and half times lower. But the next decade can be a lot better if we do two things. One is to ask candidates currently seeking our votes how they intend to bring these numbers down fast. The other is to assess the credibility of these plans. 

Another Pope, Another Mauritius

When he visits us tomorrow, Francis will find a Mauritius that’s very different from the one that greeted the most travelled Pope ever, John Paul II, thirty years ago. As the chart shows we’ve regressed in all but two ways. The cake produced over the four years before Monday’s trip (cake increase) is almost two-and-a-half times smaller, savings have collapsed, rupee has lost more than half of its value, road fatalities over the last four years are about a quarter higher and unemployment two times bigger. Inequality has also increased substantially. More on this later. 

Many of the problems we’re facing can be traced back to the 15% flat tax which has placed public finances in a critical position. Indeed at the end of 2018 there was Rs1.5tn of GDP missing which should have generated Rs300bn of revenue for our government. This would have made the latter debt-free. No wonder then that there’s plenty of signs we’re in big trouble the latest being that more than 50% of the vehicles at our fire stations and pumps don’t work. This shouldn’t be a surprise for Francis who has stated publicly several times that trickle-down doesn’t work. Let’s see what he says while he’s here. 

What We Can Learn From a Road Safety Champ

2018: The Year in Review

Q1: Lepep Tram will not be biggest project ever. By-election hints at how return to 40 SMCs would make our democracy more vibrant. Error found in app of Electoral Commission. Reconstruction of great party cannot happen while he's there. Two Nobels didn't get Mauritius wrong. Sithanen toohrooh will grow by Rs300 billion if sanity not brought back to our tax structure. Mauritius turns 50. PJ announces resignation of President, latter has other plans. Calculation of Sithanen toohrooh explained. Road fatalities in Singapore fall by 14%. Next general election is going to be a lot more open.

Q2: Sound management explained. Chuttoo thinks Ivan wants to be kicked out government. The best Kreol dictionary in town. Why we shouldn't legalise pot. Is recruiting at the CEB biased? Recall elections are seriously overdue. More than 30% of World Bank reports never downloaded. Big electoral imbalances almost never last. 24/7 water for all should happen within five years. Putin begins last term with brand new car. Why creating the URA was a mistake. Wasn't 2018 supposed to be the year of the second 'economic miracle'? Some days are way better to present the budget. SEG has at least two more flaws. Another budget to nowhere. Only idiots will love Mars.

Q3: Water is a great role model. When will NASA go to the moon again? Weighing an elephant is no easy task. Sadhguru explains how India is different. Politician taking us for morons. Looks like something is brewing. That sugar has no future has been obvious for more than a decade. 10,000 Yankees died from cocaine addiction in 2016. Sharks want appointment with Minister. World listens as story of Chagos told at the ICJ. Road fatalities may hit all-time record this year. PM makes URA redundant. A framework to analyse decolonisation.

Q4: Pravind al lapes rekin ek enn lapipi danzere. Canada rejects proportional representation. Marx at 200. Shelina eksplik kuma fer zasar lisu. How important is ethnicity in deciding elections? Our roads killed 6,716 in 50 years. Although it promised several one referendum would be a great start. Mauritian voters are quite mature. Why politicians want a dose of PR. Why we lost two decades on electoral reform. Division of votes should become standard parliamentary practice. Doing Business is a misnomer. PM presses ahead with plan to make us a banana republic. Worse than termites.

6,716 Road Fatalities in 5 Decades

As the chart shows fatalities increased by about one-third as from the third decade and pretty much stayed at that level since then. Which roughly coincides with the time we've been stuck in the middle-income trap – half of which we've been in the flat-tax trap.

PJ Could Top Grim Table By Year-End

The one for ten years of biggest road fatalities. A word of caution though. In two years – 1995 and 2000 – there was a change of PM so the corresponding numbers don't entirely 'belong' to the PMs listed for them. We allocated the full year to the PM who was in office for more than half of the year.

PJ who is already in the list along with three former PMs – Bérenger's first entry of 144 for 2004 is at the 17th spot – is likely to see his number for 2018 go all the way to the top under three scenarios. The first two are if the last third of this year relative to the first two is like those for 2016 and 2014. The third if we extrapolate the total of 115 deaths reached at the end of August. Another entry might go in the middle of the table if 2018 is more like 2015. Of course all four entries would bump his entry for 2017 – his first year as PM – out of this ranking.

We haven't made good progress in road safety for way too long. And in the last thirteen years the economy-breaking Sithanen flat tax and other indecent fiscal exemptions have ensured that we didn't have enough money to bring road deaths down in a significant and persistent manner. Unlike say Singapore which has seen road fatalities decline in every one of the past ten years except two – here they have been increasing for each of the last three years with Bodha as Minister – reducing them literally by half. The type of tax structure you have determines the number of people who die on roads. So this makes the flat tax akin to a drone assassination programme. And exposes the absurdity of calls to transform the revenues of the dead sugar industry into a guaranteed fixed-deposit.

Cocaine Killed 10,000 Americans in 2016

But synthetics opiods – excluding Methadone which caused more than 3,000 deaths – killed twice as much. And two times more than it did in 2015. What do the stats look like here given how weak we are in picking up patterns?

Why Mauritius Is Not Ready To Go Easy On Pot

Because we've been regressing so much over the past decade or so. Which means that we have a lot of basic problems to solve before we even start thinking about what to do with marijuana. For example take the dark smoke that comes out of way too many buses. Inhaling that stuff will eventually make you stupid. Combine this with rote learning and nine amputations a week. And road fatalities that should reach a 50-year high this year and up about 25% to 30% from 2017. Should we talk about the horrendous inequality brought about by the flat tax and financed partly with the beautiful idea of three casinos per town and village?

Just imagine what would happen if stupid drivers were now stoned. Glory to thee...

Road Fatalities in Singapore Fall By 13.5%

In 2017. It was the sixth consecutive year that the number of people dying on the roads there was smaller than the previous one. It's been falling so much that it reached a 37-year low. In fact so much progress has been made in the city-state that more people have been dying on Mauritian koltar for two straight years although Singapore has about four and half times more people.

With one road fatality every 48 hours here since the beginning of year you not only have to expect the Southeast Asian Tiger to have fewer road fatalities for a third year in a row – they had 22 for the first two months of 2018 – but more worrying is that if the remaining nine months are going to be like the first three we should be hitting a 39-year high with about 183 deaths. This would come after four straight years of increase in road fatalities.

Until a few years back the chart above might have been branded unfair to Singapore because of its much larger population. Not anymore after smart policy-makers have understood that recent improvements in policy tools make it possible to save a lot more lives. And that too a lot faster. At a minimum we could drastically increase the number of random and not so random breath tests when and where it matters most. This would not be the stupidest idea we've ever had and make ansam pa les koltar tuy nu fami ring a bit less hollow than having the SMF help destroy Promenade Roland Armand for a tram which is not going to be there for long.