Kuma 20 An Unfair Share Contribution Fin Rwin Moris

Li sinp. Ler ti met flat tax 15% Sithanen an 2006 ti sipoze gayn krwasans 8% ar sa (ti gayn krwasans mwayin de 5.1% ant 1968 ek 2005) be kuma tiart la montre nu dernie 4 guvernman zame in resi ariv pre ek sa target la. Nun pas apepre de 5% pu promie guvernman, a 3.8% pu deziem, 3.6% pu trwaziem e 1.7% pu katriem. Sel lane nu fin gayn en krwasans 8% u plis se an 2022 lawsi se akoz lekonomi ti kontrakte par preske 15% an 2020 ek Kovid. Padayachy pran trwa dernie lane so manda e dir nu lekonomi ti an bum, ki en fason rigolo interpret ban sif. StatMu pe prevwar en krwasans 3.1% pu 2025 e sa pa ti pu diferan mem si pa tiena sanzman rezim.

Sa tiart la montre osi ki krwasans pandan 2em e 3em guvernman ti mwins ki lamwatie target donk pa kav blam Kovid pu sa. Overol ant 2006 ek 2024 krwasans mwayin fin selman 3.3% e sa explike kifer nu sosiete pe kontinie dezintegre a vites gran V. Byinsir ban nanti fin byin profite e la pe rod fer grand mazorite Morisyin pey pu sa katastrof la e zot pe fer sa par atak nu leta providans. Ban latak la pu kontinie e vin pli frekan parski en striktir taksasion tro ba e insutenab se en pwazon.

Covid Doesn’t Give Standing Ovations

If it did the curve in the chart would have been at worst flat at zero. But it’s not. Reminding us that we need to beat the virus each time and not get too complacent about having successfully contained it once in 39 days last year thanks to our public health system that needs a serious upgrading. We’ve lowered our guard and we’re paying for it. Cases are rising fast and the death count has resumed after 336 days. There aren’t many solutions to flattening that curve now. Partially softening the already leaky lockdown in a few hours is not one of them. 

Pope’s Warning Turns One

Francis visited us exactly a year today and celebrated a wonderful mass in honour of Father Laval in Port-Louis. Later in the day he told a gathering of the civil society and the authorities to move away from the idolatrous economy we had been worshipping (understand by this speculative FDI, record inequality, national problems not solved, not enough regard for the environment and a degraded public health system because trickle down economics had made government run out of money).

Twelve months later, how much of this common sense has been heeded?

Why New York is America’s Covid-19 Epicentre

Na Pa Tus Konze Travayer

Guvernman pe anvi kup konze travayer a koz covid-19. Fode pa li fer sa parski konfinman se pa en konze me en leksperians difisil kot dimun fin bizin res lakaz pu res an vi. Ena buku zafer li kav fer a la plas:

1. En konpayni pa gayn drwa diman kudme ek guvernman si li pan kup so dividen ek kup depans fla fla. Bizin usi kone komye fwa la pey ek benefis so CEO pli for ki travayer ek pli ti lapey. Ban aksyoner kav reinvesti dan zot konpayni pu kumanse.

2. En konpayni pa gayn drwa met dimun deor brit si li ena rezerv uswa fin fer profi u fin pey ban dividen egzazere ban dernye lane. Li bizin pa gayn drwa met travayer deor apre rod travayer pli bon marse depi lot pei.

3. Guvernman bizin introdwir en wealth tax ek remet taksasyon progresif.

4. Si bizin kup lapey u lavantaz ban travayer bizin fer li de fason progresif. Dimun ki gayn ziska 30,000 par mwa pa gayn kupe e dimun ki gayn 500,000 par mwa u plis kup ant 50% ek 75%.

5. Kansel tu privilez duti-fri pu loto pu prosen sink an.

6. Obliz tablisman plant manze lor zot later ek friz tu proze IRS/RES/PDS.

7. Friz dezyem faz tram ekspres ek pran kas ka don CEB pu li investi masivman dan soler/eolyen pu ki pri kuran vin byin pre a zero.

8. Remet laz retret 60 an kumsa kav angaz plis zen. 

Why the Dutch Are Smart

Riptir, Nuvo Palab Ramgoolam

Ramgoolam pan konvink buku dimun dernye sinq banane ki lin sanze apres sa siro zanana li ti gayne an 2014-la. Li pan tarde pu pas den staz kot li ti pe dir ki lin fer lerer a en lot kot li dir ki elekter pena lespri. An dot mo ki nu ban gopia. Kav li panse ki nu amnezik si parski lin reamen Sithanen, bug kin kas lekonomi, tuy sevings, ek fer en ta lezot kuyonad kuma stimilis pakeg ek depresye rupi. Li anvi tuy nu sistem electoral usi. Devet samem riptir Ramgoolam: kontinye kraz partu kuma ant 2005 ek 2014.

Sithanen trakase ek buku kitsoz i konpri inegalite. Be anu tiek en kut kin arive par gato nasyonal ban diferan klas menaz sak fwa ki li fin minis. 

Why Savings Collapsed Despite Surviving Three Intense Cyclones

Essentially because a bean-counter started taxing bank interest as he needed to find other sources of government revenue after he reduced top tax rates before flattening the tax structure to 15%. The flat tax was supposed to generate growth rates of 8% every year since 2006 but as we’ve clipped rates far lower than this – 2019 will be the ninth year they are under 4% – savings, as expected, have never recovered. 

As the chart shows this is very different from the rebound we experienced after Danielle, Gervaise and Claudette visited us. Removing the battery of exemptions that a whole nation had used to patiently craft their long-term financial plans over several decades and the record inequality the unsustainable and crazy tax policies created didn’t help either. But there was more than injury. 

Flat Tax Hands 750,000 Mauritians Their Worst Share of National Cake

This is something the Gini coefficient won’t be able tell you but the above chart will. So yes, the bottom 60% of Mauritian households have been made more vulnerable by the Sithanen flat tax in the first decade following its implementation creating record inequality at the same time. They had their best shares of the last twenty-five years a quarter of a century ago. Plus we need to remember that since 2006 we’ve been producing some of our smallest national cakes ever thanks in large part to the damage done by the same unsustainable tax structure. Which means 750,000 of us got our smallest share of the tiniest of cakes. Not exactly what you’d call resilience. More on this later.

Another Pope, Another Mauritius

When he visits us tomorrow, Francis will find a Mauritius that’s very different from the one that greeted the most travelled Pope ever, John Paul II, thirty years ago. As the chart shows we’ve regressed in all but two ways. The cake produced over the four years before Monday’s trip (cake increase) is almost two-and-a-half times smaller, savings have collapsed, rupee has lost more than half of its value, road fatalities over the last four years are about a quarter higher and unemployment two times bigger. Inequality has also increased substantially. More on this later. 

Many of the problems we’re facing can be traced back to the 15% flat tax which has placed public finances in a critical position. Indeed at the end of 2018 there was Rs1.5tn of GDP missing which should have generated Rs300bn of revenue for our government. This would have made the latter debt-free. No wonder then that there’s plenty of signs we’re in big trouble the latest being that more than 50% of the vehicles at our fire stations and pumps don’t work. This shouldn’t be a surprise for Francis who has stated publicly several times that trickle-down doesn’t work. Let’s see what he says while he’s here. 

Piti Depas Papa

A la fin 2018 par Pravind Jugnauth (PJ) dan toohrooh Sithanen* ti 551 milyar rupi. Sa ve dir plis ki 125 milyar rupi par SAJ. Anfet par PJ ti osi depas rekordman ziska ler, Navin Ramgoolam (NR). PJ fin pran kat fwa edmi mwins letan ki NR parski zintere manz kapital apre en sertin letan si u pa fer seki bizin. PJ fin kontinye ek ban politik tre regresif ek insanse kin kontinye min enn lekonomi ki Sithanen fin tuye. Plis lor la biento.

*Toohrooh Sithanen se mank a gayne dan prodiksyon nasyonal konpare a en krwasans 8% ki Sithanen ti dir nu pu gayne ler li ti met flat tax 15%. Pu kon mank a gayne dan lakes guvernman u nek ena miltipliye toohrooh par pwa guvernman dan lekonomi. Dan mo ban kalkil mo abitye pran 20% bien ki pwa la zordi li 25%.

Why Singapore's GDP Per Capita is 2X Japan's

On a PPP basis that is. And more than three times that of Malaysia. So location doesn't explain everything. Making the purchase of cars difficult has helped quite a bit. It was not a bad idea to keep good ties with the British either – something which Mauritius also did – and having the government intervene heavily. 

Kozelidir Person of the Year 2018

It wasn't difficult to name AOC for this. She's such a big bowl of fresh air. And boy does she know what she's talking about.

How does a Sanders-Ocasio-Cortez sound for 2020?

Chomksy On How To Stem Flow of Refugees

Karl At 200

So he got the boom and bust cycles and inequality right but missed the ability of capitalism to reform itself and the establishment of welfare states which boosted upward social mobility and improved lives. He didn't foresee Marxist regimes killing people on a horrendous scale either. After ideology had become an opium or tool of deception for too many of his followers. But the most interesting thing about Marx was the healthy dose of scepticism he kept about ideas including his own (read with a free subscription). He was relatively unknown during his life with between nine and eleven people attending his funeral.

The MMM started out as a Marxist-Leninist party. Would you believe this? While a recent breakaway faction with interesting initials wants to privatise water.

Kuma Parti Lalit Diferan

Why Mauritius Is Not Ready To Go Easy On Pot

Because we've been regressing so much over the past decade or so. Which means that we have a lot of basic problems to solve before we even start thinking about what to do with marijuana. For example take the dark smoke that comes out of way too many buses. Inhaling that stuff will eventually make you stupid. Combine this with rote learning and nine amputations a week. And road fatalities that should reach a 50-year high this year and up about 25% to 30% from 2017. Should we talk about the horrendous inequality brought about by the flat tax and financed partly with the beautiful idea of three casinos per town and village?

Just imagine what would happen if stupid drivers were now stoned. Glory to thee...

Tiger @50

Did that super fast today. So basically we defused the demographic bomb, diversified our economy and became a Republic. We did a terrific job planning and implementing things at least between 1968-82. We should be thankful to our excellent constitution and FPTP system which have provided the stability necessary to have a fair chance of being a lot more than a country without a future.

Things have deteriorated significantly as from 2005 when a flat tax was introduced using three lies. This has caused everything to slow down and attracted the wrong FDI and people. Poverty and inequality have increased tremendously. The other big risk we're facing now is that there are attempts to turn our Republic into an autocracy with undemocratic devices such as a second republic, party lists and double candidacies.

Let's take our beautiful country back!

P.S. Click on the pic to see it better. Consider it as work in progress. And please note that the 30% for sugar in 1968 is an estimate.

2017: The Year in Review

Q1: iPhone turns 10. Voters elect candidates wisely. Oxfam says income for bottom half hasn't grown for past three decades. Average performance for Mauritius. Countries use PISA to improve education system. Nation surprised to learn than history of Labour Party is larger than two Ramgoolams. Citizens evaluate ministers continuously. Metro Express not needed for now. Parliament goes live and direct. Sumputh resigns after PM finds package shocking.

Q2: Splitting the Sithanen toohrooh. Soornack explains how she made it. Le Pen gets closer to L'Elysee. Who is the fastest footballer? Two really dumb reasons we need party lists. Madhuri at fifty. MK said to fly understaffed planes. The Saint dead at 89. How you know you're not a big cat. Taxpayers handed multi-billion rupee bill. Top tax rates go up by 5%. Fighter jets have own sign language.

Q3: Meet the articulated bus. Referendum legislation can help avoid mayhem. Chester found dead. Singapore knows plenty. How Fowdar can help our democracy. Cleaners earning Rs1,500 per month have reason to smile. World discovers the SJ Theatre. Easy for Mauritius to boost its GDP by half. FPTP system allows general election to have recall component.

Q4: Why Mauritius is not in high-income group. Dead animal should be removed from coats of arms. They should be referred to as 30/3 and 3/5. A woman in the front row. Mauritius finds out she has an MP called Tarolah. Use the two o'clock rule to save lives. Simple tools to understand social contracts. Berenger makes new prediction. Podcast to find out things launched. December 2014 was worse than a 60-0. Look who's worried about inequality. 8 questions for voters. Voodoo economist is back. A plan for Mauritius. 4 out 5 voters don't vote for Boolell. 

Simple Tools To Evaluate Political Projects (4)

Let's bring back the income distribution data from the previous post.

Income share in % 1986/7 1991/2 1996/7 2001/2 2006/7 2012
Bottom 20%              5.6      6.4      5.9      6.2     6.1      5.4
Top 20%                  44.2    43.5    46.2    44.8    45.6    47.5
Ratio                         7.9       6.8      7.8      7.2      7.5      8.8

After Bheenick and Bunwaree had reversed some of the damage of policies of Sithanen, Berenger and Pravind Jugnauth reduce slightly the share of the bottom 20% while they increase that for the top 20% by 0.8%. Finally after the first five years of the Sithanen flat tax the weakest 20% households see their share fall to at least a 25-year low while the top 20% hit a record level of 47.5% after they get an increase of 1.9%. There is little surprise then in seeing the share ratio reach a record 8.8X.

So each time Sithanen has been Finance Minister inequality has increased. After his first stint the top 20% saw their share rise by 2.7% of GDP and his flat tax has handed this group another 1.9% in 2012 while the bottom quintile have seen their share fall by 0.5% and 0.7% after his stints or toxic policies were implemented. Lutchmeenaraidoo, Bheenick and Bunwaree on their side have reduced inequality when they were Finance Minister. At this point in time it is useful to have another look at the different cakes that were baked.

We can see that not only the biggest cake was produced by Vishnu in the five years ending in 1992 but the sharing was also the best for the bottom 20% as they grabbed a 6.4% share. Compare this to the smallest share of the bottom 20% and one of the smallest cake produced in the first five and half years of the Sithanen flat tax. There are other interesting conclusions you can draw from combining these two data sets. Have fun. We'll return with a few more tools.