Padayachy’s Obsession With Doing Business Could Prove to Be Politically Fatal

I mean Sithanen slashed top tax rates to get 8% growth and introduced the Doing Business Index (DB) as some kind of economic holy grail. When we never got the higher growth rates he told us it’s the fault of the Great Recession but they’d be on their way as soon as it ends. That downturn ended almost eleven years ago but still no trace of the 8% growth. In the meantime we’ve been bombarded with useful idiots presenting 3% growth as good. Even if it’s less than half the promised target while the country has been falling apart.

And Padayachy doesn’t talk about the 8% growth required to keep the regressive tax rates at all. He instead shifts our attention to the DB rankings trying to convince us that they are so important that we should aim at a top ten spot – we’re currently at the 13th place – and even a top five position. That would make sense if changes in the DB index were strongly correlated with growth. But as the chart shows they are not. At all. At least for us.

Now that the pandemic is here we’re all seeing how vulnerable the flat tax has made us and how close to bankruptcy our country is. 

Robust Growth Targets Never Reached

The basis for flattening our tax structure to 15% was average growth rates of 8%. We know it had to be higher than the 5% our economy had been clipping for ages and with higher top tax rates. This makes sense. It's like a business which was previously growing at 5% and had a gross margin of 20% decides to cut that margin to 15% thinking it can grow at 8%. It would go for something like this if it wanted to increase its market share. A predator would of course raise prices after and if it had managed to drive its competitors out of business. For example Amazon.com now has physical stores. 

But as the above chart shows we never got the 8% growth rate in any of the ten years since Sithanen starting promising them. We got only half that rate on average. Which is less than what we were clocking before tax rates were slashed. And it's not because of the Great Recession which lasted only 18 months. As he had argued. In fact the rates we've been clocking for the past six years reflect the low growth path his massive policy blunders -- implemented to finance his tax-cuts -- has put us on.

15% Flat Tax is Enemy of Good Growth

Bean-counters' answer to their own manufactured lie was a promise of robust growth rates if we reduced taxes by 50%. That -- as expected -- didn't happen. They said well it's because of the financial crisis. Not really, the mess we're in was hatched in Mauritius: our economy didn't rebound in 2010 when the rest of the world did. Besides 57 countries had better growth rates than us in the first three years of the reforms -- which include, by the way, the years of 'early harvest' and 'bumper crop'.

But government has collected more revenue they say. Its revenue can increase if you have higher growth rates, better collections or if you are ripping us off with unreal prices. There has been better collections -- this can happen irrespective of tax rates -- but they did not make up for the shortfall caused by the string of ridiculously low growth rates of the reform vintage. Which is in any case what the PBB circulars have been telling us year after year. One is mostly a one-off thing, the other a cancer that spreads rapidly. You can find that out by recomputing the revenue government collected minus the stupid things (hedging billions, abusive energy prices, making SMS more expensive, high internet prices, wider-than-necessary interest rate spreads, etc). And have a look at the servicing of our debt and its structure for some additional clues that we need to add a couple of higher tax brackets on budget day. Having a good look at recent shutdowns of the US government is also not a bad idea.

And if unemployment has stayed stuck above 10% since the reforms began is it because our people don't have any good skills or is it because there are too many poverty-pay jobs on offer? And because the floodgates of stupidity have been opened? And no, we cannot increase productivity forever in one activity. We need to do other stuff. And use a range of tax rates to make intelligent bets.

Finally if our trade relationship with the rest of the world is unbalanced is it because we're not exporting enough or because we are importing things that we don't really need?

More Proof Crisis is Homemade

Recall that the bean-counters were quick to say that their 'reforms' had produced green shoots followed by an early harvest in 2007 and a bumper crop in 2008. That is easily disproved. They also said something else: that growth rates would have been a lot better had the Great Recession -- which began in 2008 and lasted 18 months -- not happened. And that as soon as conditions will get sunnier in the world things would improve for us because we're one of the world's most open economies. 

But as the above graphic shows, we didn't really rebound when times got better. Unlike the object of our economic fantasies: Singapore. We also know for a fact that a lot of the record poverty that was created has been produced well before 2008. And before Bheenick got appointed as Governor.

We also know what's holding us back.

Former RBS Boss Stripped of Knighthood

He received for services to banking because he helped throw the UK into the biggest recession in six decades. Here's the chain of events: bank makes poor decisions; bank fails; helps create financial recession which causes major recession. You can start by reading the executive summary of the FSA report.

It should help you figure out that there must be an optimal size for the banking sector. More on this later.

Policy Blunders Responsible For Robust Poverty

That's what you take away when you compare our recent inflation performance with that of Singapore. See, our inflation increased sharply when the university buddies took over and started messing up Mauritius and stayed high for 3 years before shrinking to a reasonable 2.5% in 2009 -- the year the Great Recession ended. In contrast inflation in Singapore stayed low up to 2007, spiked at 6.6% the following year and collapsed to 0.6% in 2009.

Put differently inflation in Singapore, save 2008, never exceeded 3% in the last 6 years while that of chota Bharat was always higher than that -- in half of those years it was about 3 times higher -- except in 2009.

It's also funny that union bosses -- who are now complaining about increases in the cost of living -- did not request that the authorities set an inflation target when inflation hit a historical low in 2009 as per article 5.2a of the Bank of Mauritius Act. The next best time to ask for it is now.

Hong Kong Baffles Market Fundamentalists

In a key policy address following the global financial crisis, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang states that "the government's role is increasingly important and needs to be redefined ... We should be ready to take decisive action to help stabilize the economy and rebuild people's confidence to ride out the difficulties."

Quite logically, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the territory's central bank, and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) would look for ways to strengthen the city's financial regulatory regime. Among other measures, guess what, Hong kong, one of the champions of global capitalism, is about to establish an advisory Minimum Wage Commission.

Hong Kong has not evolved on the same planned track as Singapore, but they both share the same ideology-free approach to make their vulnerable open economies as lean and nimble as possible.

Is Wall Street's Meltdown a Blessing in Disguise?

As China, and to a lesser extent India and Latin America, continue to flex their muscles, the American financial debacle is very likely to hasten the demise of the unipolar world that rose from the ashes of the Cold War. However refuseniks of unfettered capitalism elsewhere should refrain from rejoicing too soon. They should instead keep an eye on the response of their local political, business and opinion leaders.

Wall Street’s meltdown has clearly exposed the flaws and fallacies of the anti-regulatory ideology. Ironically, it could also provide a lifeline for the aid industrialists from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) whose “expertise” has never been so widely the source of contempt, with the exception of few countries like Mauritius, where the WB has even been welcomed to set up office.

Leaders who invariably outsource their thinking unwittingly reveal their incompetence. Alternatively, the words, however presumptuous, of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew aired on CNN – I am not following any prescription given to me by any theoretician … I work from first principles, what will get me there – typically underpin the leadership behind any iconic country, business or institution for that matter.

To put it bluntly, if a country is really willing to cope with global capitalism, neither the IMF/WB drivel nor any other “adviser” will help. The best consultants may be required for technical assistance, but never for strategy development or a turn around. Vision, foresight and capacity to implement regularly updated policies “will get us there”. Sound macroeconomics (monetary stability and fiscal discipline) are key but without smart microeconomics (synergy between households, businesses and markets) to complement, everything is nothing.

Toxic policies driven by crony capitalism and greed merely inflate bubbles that are bound to burst. Capitalism itself is not the problem but, left unchecked, its excesses can be devastatingly contagious.