Saturday, February 28, 2015

Why Scrapping of Point System Looks Sloppy

Because it doesn't seem to be backed by a rigorous analysis of the impact the current system has had on the safety of our roads. Minister Bodha might want to replace it with a "simpler" system of 7-8 serious road offences but I think he is confusing a simplistic system with a simple one. And this could be bad news for all road users. Well, save one.

When people have looked at the effect of such a system elsewhere they found -- like in Spain -- that it saved 618 lives over the first 18 months of its implementation. That's a reduction of 14.5% of the number of road fatalities. Of course experiences will vary across countries which is why we need to know the hard facts of our own. Especially since we have about the same amount of people dying on our roads as Norway. Which has four times more people than us.

The last time Mauritius tried the "simpler" route for something fundamental was in 2006 when one toxic bean-counter -- in the name of robust growth rates -- flattened our tax structure to 15%.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Did we get a drop in accidents and fatalities from the point to which the point system came into operation?

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

That's something the Minister should have told us. And who says the demerit point system (DPS) should have been scrapped? Maybe all it needed was a little tweaking. Not a knee-jerk reaction.

Also letting a judge decide on a case by case basis about the length of a licence suspension is not exactly objective and probably unnecessary given the backlog of cases swamping our judiciary system.

akagugo said...

Ahem... One indication about the seriousness of this new government about management of internal affairs will be how World Bank's report on road safety will be handled here. By the way, why a bank would have any interest in road safety - I thought it's business was to sell loans, full stop.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Actually the WB comments -- sorry, pontificates -- on a lot of stuff. If you want to get a really good understanding about this loan shark you've got to read Mallaby's page-turner. They've fallen off their pedestal because there are too many smart and increasingly connected people around.

Of course you've got a nice little collection of (22 more) posts (and over a 100 comments) on the WB here.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Dir mwa enn zafer. Tro buku dimunn pa pe mor lor sime depi kinn tir permi a pwin? Monn perdi enn kamrad yer dan sa terib aksidan flik-an-flak la: Anil Poonie.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

11% plis mor lor nu sime ki lane dernyer a parey dat. Sinon, dan lind 16 dimun mor par lerdtan ek dan Tamil Nadu rate la pli dan dif. Si u diviz rate la pu groser nu popilasyon u gayn 141 mor... ki apepre nu rate aniel (isi sak 65 lerdtan enn dimunn pe mor lor sime). Long live chota bharat!!!

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

So only road stretches of 200m before speed cameras have to be safe?

Anonymous said...

http://www.lexpress.mu/article/266168/pour-freiner-accidents-mortels-radars-operationnels-dici-un-mois

La période de grâce post-électorale est terminée. Avec 74 accidents mortels qui ont fait 80 victimes entre le 1er janvier et le 20 juillet, l’alliance Lepep a décidé d’agir. Les speed cameras seront rallumées d’ici fin août. Les nouveaux règlements pour les infractions au code de la route, eux, entrent en vigueur lundi.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Asterla ki pwal guete ki la renion fer??? Avan sanz bann zafer osi importan ki sa ti bizin fer enn bilan permi a pwin apre guete kot kav ameliore. Mo konpran ki zot finn bizin promet tu kalite zafer parski lor papye dernye eleksyon ti pe paret difisil pu lepep. Me kan mem!!!

akagugo said...

We mourned 137 fatalities in 2014, and 10 days before we greet 2016 135 more have left us.
B. Casteres, the CEO of one of the big names in local insurance, had this lapidary analysis recently: all insurers suffered from the effect of switching off speed cameras and suspending the DPS due a net 20% increase in road accidents in the period spanning from January to September 2015 when compared to the same period in 2014. This net effect was somewhat abated to 15% by some localised enforcement.
Does anyone give a hoot about this?

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Interesting stats that confirm our strong bat-bate bias. Miaow.

akagugo said...

Already 40 dead in the first 3 months of 2016. Extrapolate this to December, and we'll be mourning 160.

I sincerely hope not - mind you, my uncle bled to death after his left-side limbs were abraded from being dragged over 150m, some 28 years ago.

But the sad (and infuriating) aspect of it is the sheer callousness of all about it: the slumber of the Police aside (these officers standing at the side of 'strategic' (for whom?) roundabouts are merely 'pot-flerr' more intent at ogling female drivers or furiously texting / scoring a new record at Candy Crush ), but the whole system is itself just deaf, dumb and blind.

You want examples? Here goes:
- The recent heavy rains have spurred the growth of road-side bushes but did you see any trimming being done at the side of roads and roundabouts? Grass is reaching human heights, hindering visibility and causing blind spots, but who cares?
- Most of the road lights have suffered badly from the recent rains, but still, are they being replaced urgently? Well, have a night-time drive and see for yourself...
- Again as a consequence of the rains, most road markings have also suffered badly: are they being replaced? With weather-proof ones - forget about that.
- Road-side furniture is regularly vandalised/stolen, or become unreadable from weathering: have they been replaced/cleaned/maintained by the local Authorities?
- Are red lights only for 4-wheelers? Well, it is now a common and well-established practice for two-wheelers to slow down (not stop with a foot on ground) at the red light, optionally peek perpendicularly at the incoming flow and simply merge in.
- Are speed limits any worth these days? Well, if you happen to keep within, you should now expect to be hooted / flashed to be urged to drive above than limit by someone in a greater hurry behind you.

I could go on and on, but you get the idea - if enforcement is so sorely absent then we can only prepare for the ever-increasing carnage.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

For sure we don't seem to be able to save all those lost lives. It would be interesting to see if there are any seasonal effects. Better still improve the sophistication of policy analysis. It's so easy to do that.

akagugo said...

Kan trouve bann zoli hump koumsa, ferr conné siouplé...

akagugo said...

UK gets harsher driving regualtions: Copy Dodoland, copy!
And then forget implementation...

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

A grim statistic: between 1981 and end of February this year 5,000 people have lost their lives in road accidents.