2014: The Year in Review (Q2)

April: 815 million voters get ready to elect Indian Government. Seeneevasen was dead against PR. Berenger heckled during politburo meeting. SLO should craft referendum legislation. Serac kills 16 on Everest. John Paul II cannonised. Gabo gone at 87.

May: Ayrton: 20 years already. Gary Becker dies at 83. Prorogation of Parliament is telling sign process is poor. Modi bags big electoral victory. Drafting of bill not most difficult part.

June: ISIS captures Mosul. Electoral reform made for three. Shakira ready for World Cup in Brazil. Constitution temporary provision bill published. Comic genius offers life perspectives. Chiellini shows Suarez bite marks.

Read the review for Q1, Q3 and Q4.

2014: The Year in Review

January: One Ramgoolam gets closer to another. STC offers lower basmati prices. The Mac is 30. One way CSO can reduce its carbon footprint. PM struggling intellectually with white paper.

February: How our Constitution might help refresh the political scene. Scores lose life in Boko Haram attacks. iStamp to arrive in 2015. Worst Ebola breakout kills thousands. Paco de Lucia dead at 66.

March: Berenger electoral reform proposal is a dangerous flop. Burkas and sarees don't make rapes less likely. Nine years later Ramgoolam's cake still baking. Flight MH370 disappears mysteriously. How to clean up Mumbai smartly. After 389 days Ramgoolam publishes white paper, gives us 42 days to send submissions.

Read the review for Q2, Q3 and Q4.

Catastrophic Week-end Turns 35

Between 21 and 23 December of the International Year of the child a pretty little thing called Claudette visited us. Probably because she got jealous that Pele had kicked a few footballs at our George V Stadium a couple of years before. If I remember correctly we celebrated Xmas without electricity as Mauritian power lines didn't offer any major chewing problem for an intense tropical cyclone.

The upshot is that the 3-day visit helped put our economy into a depression: a 10% contraction. 1979 was also the year of the Three Mile Island nuclear accident which was essentially due to a flawed interface design. And of a major switch of how the US Fed carried out monetary policy.

If you plan of drinking in the next few days, don't drive, take a cab or pick one of your friends as a designated driver. Staying alive can be a lot of fun.

SAJ Returns To Parliament, History Accelerates

We now have a Prime Minister who has lived 84 years or 3 years more than my all-time favourite at the time he lost power in 1982. Today is also the first time the Speaker of our National Assembly was addressed as Madam. More history is on the way at Le Reduit when Ms. Fakim will replace Kailash Purryag. The sooner the better.

SAJ is also making a comeback 11 years after having announced his retirement in 2003. This never happened before. Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo is back too for a third term -- or a fourth one -- after almost a quarter of a century. If he does that again -- assuming he loses his seat in 2019 -- he will be eligible for one of those phones that centenarians receive.

So a larger pension has been paid and there will be a Rs10 billion item in the next budget to unleash the creative capital of Mauritius.

Not missing Sithanen and Mansoor by any chance?

Mauritius Says No To Wicked Plan of Scheming Trio

By booting Ramgoolam out of power, barely keeping Berenger in the Opposition for a third straight term -- but not before showing him who's the real boss in No.19 -- and preventing Sithanen from getting into Parliament. In what is probably the most important general election since the one that made us an independent country 47 years ago.

So yeah, Mauritian voters have sent a loud and clear message to politicians that they don't want anybody to mess up their constitution and electoral system and that they want the policies which have been creating a huge amount of poverty since 2005 -- due to a massive ministerial skills mismatch -- to end immediately.

They might have voted quite differently if these important issues had not been lumped together with the normal business of electing a government. And if no 84-year old fox had been there to capitalise on this monumental political blunder.

Will Vishnu Make An Economic Miracle?

It depends how you define a miracle. But I'll tell you this. Compared with Sithanen almost anything will feel like a miracle.

Voting centres open as from 7 am. Go Mauritius! Go!

Reforms See Poor Make Tiny Progress

Indeed the 10% poorest households saw their real disposable income increase by only 6.2% for the five years ending in 2012. This compares very unfavourably to the huge progress recorded after the first mandate of Navin Ramgoolam as PM -- Bheenick and Bunwaree (BB) were his Finance Ministers. At that time the weakest households of our country saw their purchasing power increase by a very healthy 48.6% -- that's 7.8X the 2012 increase -- over the levels of the preceding half-decade. 

The reforms have been very good for the 10% wealthiest though: their disposable income has surged by almost 30%. Of course the increased inequality has helped Mauritius clock some of the worst growth rates in more than 35 years: 2014 will be the fourth consecutive year with one under 4%. Which is half what was promised to us in 2005. And the basis for the 15% flat tax.

Happy voting!

63% of Poll Say Ramgoolam's Side Won't Take More Than 30 Seats

4.6% think they will get a 60-0. While 31.6% say SAJ's party will grab at least 40 seats. Only 14.3% predict LP/MMM will get a 3/4 supermajority to screw up our excellent Constitution and system of Government. The scenario with the most votes -- and a 1/4 chance of happening -- is Ramgoolam/Bérenger ending up with between 21 and 25 seats. The next most popular pick is them getting five seats less.

Let's see. 

92% of Poll Say We Don't Need More MPs

Only 6% think we need more. Really?

77% of Poll Find Vishnu Better Finance Minister

Than Sithanen. And that too by a very large margin. Only 22% found Sithanen better. Voters from all walks of life and parties are not exactly happy with this choice of Ramgoolam. We're gonna find out how much on Thursday.

Poll Says SAJ Better PM, By Very Large Margin

More than 3/4 of the 165 voters found the 84-year old politician a better PM. Ramgoolam got 15% -- that's five times less -- and Bérenger a paltry 6%. Ramgoolam might have become the second best PM -- after SSR -- had he been able to redeem himself. That didn't happen. And it actually got worse.

42% of Poll Find Our Westminsterian System of Government Excellent

Or 55 people of the 129 votes this poll received. Another 43% say it's average while only 13% found it pretty bad. Might there be a zom-pom dom-tom effect here?

Resources For The December 10 Elections

Who will you vote for? Well it will have to be three of these candidates.

Where will you vote? Enter your NIC# and the Electoral Commissioner's office will tell you where that will be. That's specially useful if it's the first time you're voting.

Who's the better cake-cutter? That is who divides the national cake more reasonably. I've looked at the HBS data for the past 25 years and it all boils down to who is the Finance Minister. Lutchmeenaraidoo -- at least in the data analysed -- has been good. So have Bunwaree and Bheenick. Sithanen has been a reverse Robin Hood -- takes from the poor to give to rich -- each time he's been MoF. So he's to be avoided at all costs.

Who bakes the bigger cake? Have looked at this data recently and what I've found is that Lutchmeenaraidoo baked a bigger one than the FMs who came after him; the Sithanen reforms generated the smallest cake and that Bheenick and Bunwaree hatched a cake which was slightly bigger than what Sithanen cooked in his first mandate. More on this soon.

Of course we don't want a second republic, party lists, more MPs and double candidacies.

What Mauritian Voters Want on December 11

By and large, a Government with about 35 MPs and an Opposition with 25. They don't want a Government with a lot more seats because then it will start having funny ideas and do some really stupid things. Like messing up an excellent constitution. And they want policies that work for a majority of their fellow citizens not the kind of nonsense that we've seen since 2005.

It now appears that none of the two major political blocks -- thank God! -- will win three-quarters of the seats. Although Labour/MMM won all the seats in 1995 with 65% of the votes. In fact a little data analysis for that election -- which happened two decades ago -- will reveal that all we need for that alliance to shed 25 seats is a displacement of less than 16% of the voters. And about a 13% movement of voters should prevent them from grabbing 75% of the seats.

Shifts of these magnitudes have happened before. For example in 2005 LP/PMSD got 12.7 percentage points more votes than they had five years earlier. And the issues were not as important as they are now. For a hint of the kind of shift that may happen in a week we need to look at the change in the sum of the share of votes the IP and the PMSD received in 1967 and 1976. 44%.

Manifestos For Two Major Blocks Now Available

L'Alliance Lepep released its manifesto eight days ago while Labour/MMM did so today. Or 58 days after the people at Lalit made their electoral program available. And that has made the recommendation of Abraham Brilloff handy again.

Labour/MMM announced that they will increase old age pension to Rs4,000. This confirms at least two things: one is that they don't have a serious economic plan -- why are we not surprised? -- and two they've been on the defensive for the past month and a half. Lalit has 28 candidates of which 43% are women.

It also shows us how important it is to have a competitive democracy. Which is the foundation of both our electoral setup and system of government.

So the best outcome is that no block gets more than 35 seats and some toxic candidates don't get through.

While You Were Sleeping

Suren Dayal was nominated as Minister of Education when Vasant Bunwaree resigned. This happened of course thanks to our excellent Constitution which makes these kinds of changes take place seamlessly.

It's not the first time we're experiencing our excellent Constitution. And definitely not the last. And if our Constitution is so good it's because a number of great and selfless minds have poured over various drafts of it and have iterated to yield something that's literally timeless. For sure we started from a very good base: the British version of a Parliamentary democracy.

Which makes it very different from what one clown has proposed.

Aren't you happy you're voting soon?

Our Polls Are Back

We have 5 great polls for you:

1. is what do you think about our Westmininsterian System of Government.

2. how many seats will Ramgoolam's alliance take?

3. who is the better Prime Minister: SAJ, PB or NR?

4. who is a better FM: VL or RS?

and 5. is about the number of MPs we already have in Parliament.

Happy voting!!!

Gulbul Confirms Sithanen Proposal is Constitutional Galimatia

If you listen carefully to what he said on radio this week. Given that they are proposing to shift the power to dissolve Parliament to an elected President this changes the nature of our democratic system and will therefore require a referendum where a supermajority -- 75% -- of voters give the nod as well as a unanimous vote in Parliament. He has cited Privy Council interpretations of section 1 of our Constitution as basis for his analysis. He joins two colleagues who have promised to go to court if leaders start choosing MPs.

See I told you the bean-counter had no business on one committee. It also shows that collectively Mauritians are very smart. Which would explain why the bill hasn't been released yet. They know it's amateurish at best. And don't want to look silly again. After it is thrashed unceremoniously.

Suddenly, Labour/MMM Alliance Promises 60,000 Jobs

Because a few weeks ago when Rama Sithanen was asked (scroll to 31m30s) how many jobs he would create in the first twelve months if he was to become the next finance minister -- God forbid -- he said he could not forecast that. He couldn't even give a rough estimation. Of course we can come up with a ballpark of how many jobs he might create because he's been FM for several years and we just have to look at his stats. Turns out we should expect around 7,200 jobs or 2.5X less than what Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo could create.

He also said that he would not be able to create jobs immediately. Hmm. We can estimate that too by looking at how many jobs were created in the first full calendar year -- we could look at monthly figures too -- he was in office in each one of his two terms. That number is around 8,300 jobs. But given that he messed up the economy so badly and that he increased unemployment every single year in his first mandate and in every full calendar year of his second that could be really hard to achieve.

Mr. Sithanen also says he will eradicate poverty. He said that before. I'm sure you remember he said he could do that in 7 years. The snag is that it's almost ten years since his bogus reforms have started. And far from eliminating poverty he has thrown an additional 22,000 Mauritians into it during his second term. That's about 350 people every four weeks. And his inflation record doesn't look too good.

So I guess they've thrown this number to look a lot less silly. And to try to be a bit less on the defensive. After lalyans lepep announced their 12 measures.

30 Years Ago Indira Gandhi Was Assasinated

On October 31st 1984 to be more precise. I remember not initially understanding how she could have been shot multiple times. Only to learn a bit later that two of her bodyguards had assassinated her with their service guns. Ms. Gandhi was a great friend of Mauritius and visited us a few times. Here she is on one of these trips being welcomed by Kher Jagatsingh as my mum, tonton Raymond and tante Jacqueline Rault look on. The guy just behind the Prime Minister of India is of course our own SSR.

This picture brings back a lot of memories. One such memory is the late Camille Moutou lamenting at a SELEX -- an organisation for the elderly in Mauritius -- dinner a few years ago: "Kot zot pu kav vo nu bann dirizan sa".

Indeed Camille.