Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Why You Should Add 3% To The Unemployment Rate


Simply because the labour force number of 2007 as pictured above is only 500 persons stronger than the preceding year. The only two things that could explain such a small increment -- about 20 times less than the usual change -- would be an emigration of about 10,000 people in that particular year. I checked but didn't find anything. Or it could be the result of a kink in our population pyramid. Nothing there either.

And when you adjust the numbers you get a labour force that's about 20,000 larger in the last three years than the official statistics. That translates into an unemployment rate of 10.8% at the end of 2009 instead of the 7.7%.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

b kisanela ine trick bne figures la?

Anonymous said...

Lakoz sa meme Directer Statistik fine prend conge force !!!

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

@Ano #1: Anu atan enn explikasyon ofisyel.

@Ano #2: Mr Bundhoo pann pran konze forse. Linn retire. Btw, mo pa kone si pa ounn deza gayn dialog ar li. U kav tuzur lir sa.

Anonymous said...

b la mo tender calculation prix produits petroliers pu confier a acting director general CSO. zone dombre la pas pu reste pareil sinon empirer? lol

akagugo said...

10,000 people emigrated...? Just thinking aloud: What if we reversed the rationale and checked the effect of an influx of about 10,000 people from abroad - perhaps a fraction of them being expatriates - having taken Mauritian nationality? Could this be plausible? Ou-bien, plus machiavéliquement, Mr Bundhoo justement finn retire-li akoz bann instructions "venant d'en haut" pou faire so bann chiffres dire bann zaffer ki pas sipposer dire...? Mystère, mystère...

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

@akagugo: sa ka de figir la li pa explik nu sityasyon: kifer Mauritian Labour Force inn ogment zis par 500 en 2007.
Mr Bundhoo inn pran so retret, li pa finn retire-li.

Kozémotandé said...

Our country, in the wake of its independence, has inherited some fine traditions from the british like keeping national records and figures of nearly everything that counts. This is not a mean achievement. We also have smart people to do this kind of job. What is missing however the openness of the systems put in place. We do a lot of things brilliantly but mecanically without bothering to know about their real meanings. We often end up in the same situations that other countries with lesser advantages find themselves.

akagugo said...

@ SJ:

Oops, my mistake: I misread "Linn retire" for "li finn rétir li-mem". OK, then, if Mr Bundhoo retired, I retract what I've said.
But why is the post left vacant behind him not filled in asap? Is this to be blamed on "lenteurs administratives"? ou-bien le fait ki le 'parent-ministry' of CSO is the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development?
Anyway, increase by only 500 in Dodoland's labour for 2007 must have logical explanation. As far as we don't ask it from Mr Soomarooah... :-) By the way, the first Soomarooah-free fuel prices will be published soon: let's wait and see!

Anonymous said...

Ou ena raison Sanjay, li fine retire. Li ti osi ene bon statisticien ki ti swiv etik RSS. Anou atann explikasion Acting Director lor sa 'outlier' la !

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

@Kozemotande: nun sirtu vinn byen byen kuyon et fupamal.

@akagugo: wi anu gete enn kut kiarive ek prosin pri APM. Ena kiken kinn ranplas li.

@Ano #4: si mo tann kiksoz mo va sinyal zot.

Enn_aie_uhh said...

Dakor ek ou. Ler ti faire VRS oussi ban sif somaz ti affecte. Ban depite Labour ine deza koz sa dan parlman.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Some good points from our friends at Lalit.