Tuesday, May 4, 2010

53% of Poll Planning To Vote For Alliance Du Coeur

Yep. 41 of the 76 votes casted in this poll were in favour of Berenger's alliance against 26 for L'Alliance de L'Avenir. 6% were voting for a third party while 5% were not going to vote.


Anonymous said...

Just curious to know -would you say the sample was representative of the population?

Anonymous said...

Right, this is a correct inference from the figures you have obtained so far. We should always be honest intellectually. I also learnt that from a precious book published by a former Minister of Education.

Anonymous said...

We can only infer that the sample was representative of a particular population: that of persons who pays regular visits to this Blog (with real teeth, I would say). Correct me if I am wrong.

akagugo said...

Lor website http://www.lexpress.mu/ contraste-la enkor plis sharp:
L’Alliance de l’Avenir 28% L’Alliance du Cœur 68%
Ne se prononce pas 4%
Nombre de votants: 2559

eski c'est samem nou pou trouver le 6 mai 2010?

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

The sample is probably too small to capture the richness of the voting behaviour that goes in Mauritius and is too sensitive to a few votes. Still, we can wait for May 6th to find out how good a poll it was.

I don't know if it's regular visitors to Kozelidir. It can be first-time visitors too. Takes only 1 click to vote.

@akagugo: The bigger crowd was at QB so I don't see how that gives the MMM such a huge advantage. In 1983 a few days before the general elections L'express said that the bookies were predicting that the MMM would win and that by a large margin. Not only they lost by a large margin but Berenger also lost his seat.

I will have an interesting post on that during the day.

Anonymous said...

Si nou prend parol Navin compte, li represantatif zis dimoune ki lir l'express online. Nou pas gagne droit tir plis conclusion ki sa meme si nou kapav dir ki dimoune ki lir l'express online (d'apres bann commentaires ki dimoune fer lor banne lartik) ki li pa loin de ene sample assez representatif popilasion electeurs Moris. Aster ena kestion technik. Eski dimoune pe vot en sel fois ou bien ena possibilite revote? That is the question. Mo kone longtemps technology ti encore rustik e li ti posib revote en 2e, ene 3e fois etc... Me aster l'expres ena ene IT Manager, mo panse li finn prevoir banne sitiasion kumsa.

Anonymous said...

whats the point of this then if the results are unreliable?

I mean such an exercise need to be accurate, reliable and valid!!

I think that if we cant get a good sizeable representative sample then one should not use and present the results.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

We're not saying it's unreliable. We're saying we don't know.

The most important thing in presenting the data is not hiding anything. We publish how many people voted so that the viewer can factor this into deciding the size of the grain of salt it should take it with.

Anonymous said...

you're right Sanjay. At this level (on Kozelidir), it's a real intellectual fun. As you said, always take it with a grain of salt.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

We should always carry our grains of salt at all levels. See someone may say that they have a large number of responses when in fact it's all cooked up.

We'll find out how much fun there's to it in a little more than 48 hours.

akagugo said...

The fun will probably be in watching the number of "figir sek" who were so far confident of "balié karo"... :-)

Kozémotandé said...

The fun is also in the number of gimmicks and lies that were thrown at lepep admirab during the last thirty days or so to grab sixty seats which instaed of holding legitimate promises for an ambitious country will finally turn into desolation and despair. I only hope I am wrong.

Anonymous said...

ca poll la faire mo lecoeur content

ConversationLimited said...

Just my my two pennies worth analysis on online surveys. They can't really be used for any kind of inference in politics in Mauritius.

The majority of the votes are played by common working people struggling to make the ends meet. At the end of the day, its all about how much these people can be swayed (combien cave met zotte dan la sauce) that will decide who will win the election.

On a side note, are our politicians suffering from alzhiemer and losing their mental faculty. Where but besides a banana republic, do the major contenders for the PM post swear and trade childish insults in public!

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

@akagugo: wi pwena figir sek sa c sire.

@kozemotande: the civil society will just need to turn the heat on our to-be-elected MPs and take them to task.

@ConversationLimited: I beg to differ: every vote counts.

ConversationLimited said...

@SJ: Maybe I phrased it wrongly! The internet is not a good representative of the masses. What I wanted to point out is, the masses decide who wins.
Take the case of Thailand: the masses come from the rural villages and prefer Thaksin. So in the event of any new election, Thaksin will be re-elected. Any online poll conducted will be more skewed towards the current PM.
Well, it may not apply to Mu!

Anyway, democracy is a flawed concept for election. An interesting read "http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627581.400-electoral-dysfunction-why-democracy-is-always-unfair.html?full=true"

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

ConversationLimited: Not too sure I can agree with this because there are enough internet users in Mauritius that capture the complex texture of the voting landscape.

Not too sure I buy your argument that online polls are skewed towards the incumbent either. Have seen all kinds of them and there is variety in the results to say the least.

Besides who says online polls are not as good as face-to-face polls?

Thanks for the article. I scrolled through it and seems to be a mixture of Ken Arrow's impossibility theorem and shortcomings of the first-past-the-post system. Too bad this hasn't happened yet.

ConversationLimited said...

I still do feel that for the Mauritian context, the internet poll is not reflective of the whole island mood.

We will find it later tomorrow!