For Good Cup of Tea After Good Cup of Tea

Stopped using Bois-Cheri vanilla tea bags soon after I had one cup of Freshpak’s rooibos tea. That was years ago. It has a strength and consistency in taste I didn’t find in the local brand. I use my phone’s timer to steep it in fresh boiling water for exactly two minutes and then add some milk but no sugar. Great habit to skip sugar in tea as we drink several hundreds cups in a year. Have made quite a few friends try it. Most if not everyone of them have switched. 

Pope Should Squeeze Botanical Garden in Tight Schedule

Because there might be a six-lane motorway and a couple of shopping malls right in the middle of it the next time he or his successor visits our island. Granted promoters would have promised to plant 300,000 trees or whatever in Mare Chicose but it will never be the same thing. Just like trips to Beau-Vallon have been ruined forever. 

Bipolarizasyon Politik Se En Mit

Dan Lamerik ena li. Parti Demokrat ek Parti Repiblikin. Sa de la tu letan mate ek prezidan sorti depi en sa de parti la. Moris nu pa fin ena sa. Se ki nwena se rekonfigirasyon 4-5 parti dan de lalyans ki sanze a traver letan. Mem an 1967 pa ti vreman ena li parski dan Parti Lindepandans tiena Ptr, IFB ek CAM.

Par kont se kin arive depi 2005 se ki nun retruv nu ek ban Parlman byin regresif ki ti pur reprezantasyon proporsyonel (PR) ek ban politik iltra-liberal. Ptr su Navin Ramgoolam fin trayir ban valer sa parti ki ti lager pu lindepandans ek don nu leta providans. Setadir li pur PR, flat tax kin kas lekonomi ek li pa fin kon byin antur li. MMM usi mekonesab ek nepli ena nanye interesan pu ofer Moris. Ek depi 2015 nun truve ki MSM usi fin vin en parti neoliberal ek fin pratik ban politik bankal kin kontinye kul Moris ek pena respe pu lanatir. Tu sa la fin an parti arive parski ban parti la ena manb infliyan ki ena lintere dan offshore ek zot gayn finansman korporatif inportan.

Bon nuvel se ki lelektora fin kontinye vin pli malin. 

Nation Split Over Which is Worse

Is it his stupid flat tax which has broken the economy and created a Rs1,500bn GDP gap at the end of last year because we never got the 8% growth he promised for the past fourteen years or his ethnic electoral model which he used to forecast an 80% vote share for the LP/MMM alliance in the 2014 general election? While the problems created by his crappy economic model have partly been discussed not enough has been said of that ‘40%+40%=80%’ prediction of his faulty model which he no doubt used to change constituency — anybody thinking of changing ridings these days should avoid it as plague — and in the process elevated the status of reading tea leaves to that of an entirely respectable trade. 

The chart is a modest contribution to fill this gap. As you can see the bean-counter has made an error of 846,273 votes. That’s more than the 785,645 votes that alliance actually got. Which means that 40%+40% turned out to be equal to 38.5% — the thought of him being Minister of Finance again must have sent shivers down the spine of many voters. So the red/purple team got less than half what he predicted. It looks a lot like the GDP growth rate we’ve been clipping for the past seven years. They have all been less than half the 8% target. Is there a pattern here? Maybe. Maybe not when we look at the collapse of our savings rate. In any case 846,273 is a huge number of votes. It’s at least 400,000 larger than the votes that made us an independent country. In fact it’s even greater than the votes of the Independence Party and the PMSD in the August 1967 election put together. He’s now saying he got misreported and never said that. Even if we grant him this just for now I recall hearing him say that he’s predicting a 60-0. This implies a vote share of a little more than 65% (the vote share of the LP/MMM in 1995) and a still gigantic error of 543,667 votes. 

If you ask me I don’t think it’s important we decide which is worse. These are both catastrophes that need to be analysed carefully and prompt voters to require political alliances to have their tax policies among other things detailed in affidavits. They should also help us stay alert and not get distracted by the ethnic hogwash that’s going to be thrown our way in the next few months. Let’s stay focussed on the real issues. There’s no shortage of them. 

How Our Offshore Treaty Risk Became a Much Bigger Problem

With 640m multidimensionally poor people in India in 2005-6 and the internet making millions a lot smarter it was natural that the pressure to renegotiate the DTAA with Mauritius would increase significantly. So it was sheer stupidity for one bean-counter to flatten our tax structure to a rate (15%) that has caused serious damage to our economy in order to build a facade of low-tax jurisdiction. Besides we never voted for this crap aka Paglanomics or if you prefer Shaitanomics in 2005. Killing our savings culture was not exactly another smart move. Neither was gifting a sunset industry €138m — its weight in the economy was more than six times smaller at the end of 2018 (0.5%) than it was in 2005. Add the severance of the link between what we pay for oil and what it costs on the world market and stupid hire-fire laws to understand why we’re heading into a wall. 

And a few days ago he uttered more rubbish including that without our Global Business (GB) sector — this is where he’s been working for many years — our currency would maybe have been trading at Rs50 to the USD. Scare tactics by Dr. TINAnen. But as the chart shows it took only five years from the inception of that sector for our rupee to lose a quarter of its value and a further five to shed almost another 25% of the average value it had in 1992 — an index of the dollar value of our rupee is used so that when the curve is going down it means our rupee is losing value with respect to the USD, makes it easier to visually estimate its percentage changes and we’ve added two horizontal lines to show two values of our rupee relevant for our discussion here in the format you’re used to seeing it. 

This chart will also help put the myth that Ringadoo was a bad Minister of Finance because he devalued the rupee by 30% and 20% in a better perspective. See our rupee lost 55% of its dollar value between 1992 and 2015 in an economic environment that was incomparably better. In fact we would probably have hit another dismal low had there not been a BoM Governor who knew what he was doing between 2007 and 2014 to resist energetically an incompetent Minister of Finance who when asked why the rupee had been depreciating rapidly replied that it had not depreciated for a long time. For sure current trade imbalances reflect to a great extent the generalised policy-making failure of the past dozen years. Our rupee will enjoy better days as soon as we get our act together. Just like India who had by 2015-6 reduced the number of poor people by 271m.

Long Wait Over As Mauritius Wins First IOIG

At one point it was a close race. And then gold medals for Mauritius kept coming in. They just wouldn’t stop. The focus suddenly changed from the familiar ‘how close to the top we would finish’ to ‘will anyone be able to catch up?’ These are new beginnings that shouldn’t be wasted. They should be used to at least roll back substance abuse and demand better performance from our politicians — recall elections would be a decent starting point. Government should use the very intense feelings in the air right now to bring back some basic common sense like announcing that no public beach will be privatised from this point on and that it is immediately putting an end to the indecent land speculation. We might not be hosting the IOIG again before another twenty years but two objectives should keep us busy for the next few games. Win the games outside of Mauritius. And win them in Reunion. 

Will the 10th IOIG Welcome a New Winner?

So far only Madagascar has prevented Reunion from winning all the previous nine games. And both times happened when the Big Island hosted them. Seychelles almost won the 8th edition on its own turf but in the end fell short by just two gold medals. The closest Mauritius got was a shortfall of 11 gold medals the last time it organised the games. But we didn’t have Krouink sixteen years ago.

How Does Norway As a Football Powerhouse Sound?

Thanks to being one of the four countries to have won the women FIFA World Cup the oil-rich country is just behind Uruguay on a World Cup per capita basis because of its small population. Germany is third and the only nation to have lifted the trophy in both the men and women versions of the tournament. Argentina and France with their two trophies are next in the ranking after Italy but ahead of Brazil because five trophies are not enough to compensate for the 209 million souls of the South American country with a land mass larger than continental USA. Japan is last among the eleven countries but this could change with its shrinking population especially if its women team in four years is as good as this year’s and doesn’t exit the tournament because of a very controversial penalty. Uruguay can sleep tight for roughly another eight years – or until the first general election on planet earth with one billion eligible voters – and that too if Norway wins the next three tournaments as Germany is not a threat for the next 90 years. 

The Wrong Budget Tomorrow and the Sithanen Toohrooh Rises By Rs338bn

To Rs1,781bn by year-end when we could be voting. This would increase the government revenue missing with respect to the reason for flattening the tax structure to 15% – getting 8% growth – by a huge Rs68bn. This is likely to be more than 50% of the budgeted revenue announced tomorrow. Or if you prefer the equivalent of 97 eye-hospitals without playing with our sovereignty or a quarter of the central government budgetary debt at the end of last year. Or more than three Lepep trams. Voters understand that indiscriminate tax breaks is an illusion and will only bring us way too close to a massive social crisis. 

Putting the Flat Tax Mess in Perspective

Let us assume that we halve the average 8% growth rate target in 2008 and we reduce it by three quarters in 2009 to account for the Great Financial Recession. That’s a pretty conservative assumption because an average growth rate takes into consideration years that are below average. Let us also assume that the government revenue shortfall generated by the Sithanen flat tax for each year — you’ll have one for any given year if the actual growth rate is less than 8% — is reinvested at a rate equal to the rate of inflation until the end of 2015. Again this is a fairly conservative assumption. 

Then at the end of 2015 the reinvested cumulative government revenue shortfall (RCRS) would have ballooned to Rs114bn. That’s 95% the size of the National Pension Fund at the time. Basically another NPF which would have allowed higher benefits to be paid or from an earlier age or some combination of the two. That would have been concrete proof of an ‘early harvest’ or a ‘bumper crop’. But that’s not the situation we’ve been in. Instead government has been trying for many years to target pension benefits. Rs114bn is also about 70% of the cost of a mass rapid transit (MRT) aka heavy metro system. We don’t need this system for now just like the Lepep tram but we would have been able to afford one. Rs114bn is almost half of our public debt at the end of 2015. This would have given us a better credit rating or at least a more favourable credit outlook. Rs114bn is also exactly six times the cost of changing all the leaking pipes of the CWA. 

But this was in 2015 and given that the Lepep government has maintained the regressive policies and added a few of its own the shortfall has kept on increasing and compounding. Three years later it had exceeded Rs300bn. 

Five Key Ingredients For a Vibrant Democracy

1. First-past-the-post (FPTP) system to have strong and stable governments that form fast after general elections and don’t collapse after partner(s) leave winning alliance. Temporary lopsided results we got a few times can be mitigated with prudent tweak without making bloated Parliament bigger or suppressing dissent with stupid anti-defection legislation. 

2. Progressive taxation (PT) and top tax rates at the right level (35%) instead of a ruinous flat tax (FT) of 15% for better economic growth and distribution after savings culture resuscitated, good drains, 24/7 water, halving of road fatalities fast, preservation of our world-famous views and harmony and respect of nature.

3. Recall elections (RE) to get rid of incompetent politicians within months and not five years. Cheap. Only Rs30m. The cost of a by-election. Expect better behaviour after we use it a couple of times. Think of it as excellent meksin laryaz. 

4. Statute referendums (SR) to reverse toxic policies or anti-patriotic ones and to get rid of Presidents. Relatively cheap. Rs300m. Would have prevented Rs300bn government revenue shortfall and GDP gap of Rs1.5tn at the end of 2018. And tense celebrations of Mauritius@50.  

5. Initiated constitutional amendment (ICA) to get rid of the BLS, allow kreol in our Parliament, prevent holders of constitutional posts from leaving with hefty benefits in all cases and impose term limits on PM and other important posts.

Second ingredient will allow us to resume a much better development path like between 1968 and 2005. Ingredients three and four will improve the situation further and will be infinitely better than what we’ve experienced after ultra liberal policies were implemented thirteen years ago. Their combined use may make ICA redundant as common sense would have made an interesting return. 

Berenger (PB), Ramgoolam (NR), Jugnauth (PJ), Sithanen (RS), Subron (AS) and Boolell want proportional representation (PR) to push us into an autocracy. That’s a situation where they implement toxic policies and it’s a lot harder to keep them out of parliament. But it’s wonderful for political dynasties. We don’t want this. 

Fond du Sac Told Compulsory Acquisitions Come in More Than One Flavour

One is fast. It was used for the Lepep tram, an entirely unnecessary project that will cost billions, solve nothing and is defacing important parts of several towns — the LP's version would have been as useless. The one citizens of this village got tastes different. It takes forever which explains why their lives were turned upside down three years in a row after rain fell.

But there is more at play here than a two-flavour system. Indeed government doesn't have enough money to undertake the most basic works that ensures that lives are not put at risk. Repeatedly. Even though public debt is ballooning. Blame it on the 15% flat tax which has reversed the clock of progress for an overwhelming majority of us. It will cause the Sithanen toohrooh to increase by over Rs358 billion (to at least Rs1.86 trillion or 3.5 times its 2014 level that was enough to cause a big political earthquake) by the end of 2019, likely an election year.

This GDP gap will be responsible for a government revenue shortfall of Rs71.2 billion this year alone. That's enough to change all leaking pipes, build enough drains to accommodate normal and not-so-normal downpours and help create the environment to allow the most educated generation of Mauritans to push their country forward. And in the interest of PJ's political survival to add a few tax brackets in the forthcoming budget.

A Hundred Years Later, Amritsar Still Awaits Apology

Elizabeth II has been there. David Cameron too. But so far no apology. A kniefall à la Willy Brandt for the massacre that helped liberate India would be a good start. And give the British an opportunity to come to terms with the atrocious role they've played in the loss of millions of lives in one or more Indian famines. 

A Polling Station Atop Mont Blanc, Almost

At 15,256 feet the one in Tashigang, Himachal Pradesh is now the world's highest and only 521 feet shy of the Franco-Italian roof but 856 feet higher than nearby Hikkim, the previous record-holder. One of over a million polling stations it has been set up for any of the 48 people that are allowed to vote there on May 19, the last of seven days of voting in the 2019 Indian general election. But it will not be as exclusive as the one erected in a remote Gujarati forest solely for Mahant Darshandas.

There will be an extra 85 million eligible voters -- roughly the population of Germany -- bringing the total to 900 million who will be tasked to elect 543 MPs in as many single-member constituencies (SMCs). 543 is unchanged from 5 years earlier -- our local political bonobos should take good note. India will have to wait for the 2029 election to cross the billion-voter mark. By that time she would have just overtaken China as the most populous country on spaceship Earth.

Voting starts today. Results will be proclaimed on May 23.

Sithanen Flat Tax Fuels More Street Protests

This time it was in Curepipe. Citizens were outraged that they've been without running water for up to two weeks. But what else could we expect when regressive tax policies have crippled government so much that it can't even pay for its own eye-hospital? And things will get worse as long as we remain on the wrong side of compounding. Boolell was there trying to score some cheap points -- the government revenue shortfall between 2005 and 2014 was big enough to change the 1,600km of leaking pipes at least five times over.

24/7 water is unlikely to happen when Collendavelloo completes his first term as Minister in the next few months. This is kind of obvious. See, when he took over about 45% of households enjoyed an all-day supply and this week he said it had reached 70%. So if it took 4 years to increase the percentage of subscribers getting round-the-clock water by 25 percentage points (by probably changing around 730km of leaking pipes) it will surely take more than a year to add the last 30% subscribers. Even if the Bagatelle dam comes into operation soon. In fact on the current trajectory 24/7 is not happening before the 2024 election year. Which is a good reason to put as much pressure as possible on government so it brings back some sanity to our tax structure. Because we surely don’t want 400,000 people to have water problems for another 4-5 years.

Public debate on this matter can also be enhanced if the Minister puts at least three very basic series of data on the CWA's website (the last annual report available there is for 2015). These are the length of the water network at the end of each year and the length and cost of pipes laid each year since the end of 1967. 

Piti Depas Papa

A la fin 2018 par Pravind Jugnauth (PJ) dan toohrooh Sithanen* ti 551 milyar rupi. Sa ve dir plis ki 125 milyar rupi par SAJ. Anfet par PJ ti osi depas rekordman ziska ler, Navin Ramgoolam (NR). PJ fin pran kat fwa edmi mwins letan ki NR parski zintere manz kapital apre en sertin letan si u pa fer seki bizin. PJ fin kontinye ek ban politik tre regresif ek insanse kin kontinye min enn lekonomi ki Sithanen fin tuye. Plis lor la biento.

*Toohrooh Sithanen se mank a gayne dan prodiksyon nasyonal konpare a en krwasans 8% ki Sithanen ti dir nu pu gayne ler li ti met flat tax 15%. Pu kon mank a gayne dan lakes guvernman u nek ena miltipliye toohrooh par pwa guvernman dan lekonomi. Dan mo ban kalkil mo abitye pran 20% bien ki pwa la zordi li 25%.

60 Years Ago, Voters Seize Wonderful Chance of Sending Maverick To Parliament

At that time it was called the Legislative Assembly and he's about twenty-seven-and-a-half years old on that 10th Monday of 1959 in colonial Mauritius. He already has a lot under his belt. He had co-founded the Mauritius Times roughly five years before and had spent 17 months outside of Mauritius literally globetrotting during which time he secured a 30-minute meeting with Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan, the philosopher and Vice-President of India. That's barely a decade after the British had been sent packing. Just imagine the energy in the atmosphere. But more happens in that long trip. A lot more. He travels to London and on his way back stops at Paris where he's lucky to have lunch with l'Abée Pierre thanks to contacts established in India. These meetings and travels reinforce what his self-customized education - reading many right sutras very early in his life didn't hurt - has already taught him.

So voters elect him on his first attempt as a candidate in a general election. More was to come his way. Elected as Secretary General of the Labour Party a couple of years later, a post which he kept for about 21 years, he used this position to bring method to the madness in the party. This period would coincide with his work in three Ministries as one of the most important architects of our welfare state. 

Two other factors made the completion of such a massive amount of work possible. The first is that his biggest fan happened to be one SSR. The other is the mathematician he married. 

Win At Old Trafford Could See Reds Lift Trophy on May 4

As per a reasonable scenario where they would win 7 of the remaining games (excluding today's result), draw 3 and lose one. City would get the same number of points from its 11 last games but increase its goal difference by an extra 6 goals compared to Liverpool. Should the Reds get only 1 point from Man Utd today they would have to wait for the final match day and hope to at least draw against Wolves at Anfield.

This would essentially bring us back to a situation like the final game of 1988/89 where the Reds needed just one point against Arsenal to win the League but ended up losing the match (they won the title for the last time the following year). If they lose tonight City would win by a better goal difference on May 12. This assumes for example that the Citizens draw at Crystal Palace one of the four teams that have beaten them this season. Not a given.

Hope your heart is in shape. 

Why Singapore's GDP Per Capita is 2X Japan's

On a PPP basis that is. And more than three times that of Malaysia. So location doesn't explain everything. Making the purchase of cars difficult has helped quite a bit. It was not a bad idea to keep good ties with the British either – something which Mauritius also did – and having the government intervene heavily. 

What We Can Learn From a Road Safety Champ