Finalman Rekin Pann Vot 'Under Protest'

Le promye desam li pa ti ankor deside si pa li ti pu konplis pu transform Moris an enn repiblik bananyer. Sirma linn mezir anpler reaksyon tre negatif sosyete sivil par rapor a sa simagri PR ki MSM/ML ti propose la. So gran dezakor se ki li truv sa kuma Sachs so Model A alor ki li prefer Model C. Bel dezakor! Wadire kiken pa le aval pwazon parskinn bliye met enn tigit lavani.

Pli sir li pe espere ki Privy Council pu dir lor ka Medoint avan antam/kontinye negosyasyon. 

5 Reasons Labour/MMM Alliance Lost in 2014

1. Attempt to shift to a semi-presidential system for funny reasons without asking for voter permission in a referendum

2. Adding proportional representation (PR) to our electoral system – that would have created a lot of political uncertainty, bloated an already too big parliament and snatch a powerful weapon voters have – without getting our green light in a referendum first

3. Bérenger as PM – the guy who has only been able to win internal party elections for the past 18 years with his on/off antics and was far from being an impressive PM during 21 months

4. Sithanen – the bean-counter who killed our savings culture and introduced the economy-killing flat tax – as FM 

5. Impact of trickle-down economics (at least Rs540bn of GDP and Rs108bn of government revenue missing at end of 2014) that is Ramgoolam putting the 1% first

And what do you think are going to be the important factors in the next general election?

How Big Should Our Parliament Be?

Certainly not larger than the 66-70 MPs it can have under the current system. Increasing it by 50% to over 100 or even by 11-15 as the PM would like to is out of the question. Justifying a bigger National Assembly (NA) because our population has doubled since 1968 is problematic for at least two reasons. One is that according to Google or an interpolation of decennial census figures the number of inhabitants in Mauritius has in fact increased by only 58%. Two is that the size of our NA rose by 75% between 1963 and 1967 while the number of citizens increased by a mere 9%. Interestingly using the 1963 as base year yields a parliament of 70 which is how big it is today. 

It's way better that we compare our population/MP ratio to those of other countries. On this yardstick we do very poorly – more than 140 parliaments out of 195 do better than us. This is precious information as we can use it to find an optimal size for our NA. That's done in the chart and we've highlighted Denmark because 40 is kind of a natural number for us as this is how many MPs we sent in 1959 and 1963 when we had single-member constituencies.

The number of electors is not a useful measure either as this can increase with policy decisions – like it did in 1975 when the legal age was reduced by three years. Plus we shouldn't forget that the number of Indian electors increased by half a billion from 1977 to 2014 without any increase in the number of MPs. Besides we definitely don't want more MPs when we look at their average output especially when we know that each one costs us at least Rs2.6 million per year. What we need instead are recall elections.

2018: The Year in Review

Q1: Lepep Tram will not be biggest project ever. By-election hints at how return to 40 SMCs would make our democracy more vibrant. Error found in app of Electoral Commission. Reconstruction of great party cannot happen while he's there. Two Nobels didn't get Mauritius wrong. Sithanen toohrooh will grow by Rs300 billion if sanity not brought back to our tax structure. Mauritius turns 50. PJ announces resignation of President, latter has other plans. Calculation of Sithanen toohrooh explained. Road fatalities in Singapore fall by 14%. Next general election is going to be a lot more open.

Q2: Sound management explained. Chuttoo thinks Ivan wants to be kicked out government. The best Kreol dictionary in town. Why we shouldn't legalise pot. Is recruiting at the CEB biased? Recall elections are seriously overdue. More than 30% of World Bank reports never downloaded. Big electoral imbalances almost never last. 24/7 water for all should happen within five years. Putin begins last term with brand new car. Why creating the URA was a mistake. Wasn't 2018 supposed to be the year of the second 'economic miracle'? Some days are way better to present the budget. SEG has at least two more flaws. Another budget to nowhere. Only idiots will love Mars.

Q3: Water is a great role model. When will NASA go to the moon again? Weighing an elephant is no easy task. Sadhguru explains how India is different. Politician taking us for morons. Looks like something is brewing. That sugar has no future has been obvious for more than a decade. 10,000 Yankees died from cocaine addiction in 2016. Sharks want appointment with Minister. World listens as story of Chagos told at the ICJ. Road fatalities may hit all-time record this year. PM makes URA redundant. A framework to analyse decolonisation.

Q4: Pravind al lapes rekin ek enn lapipi danzere. Canada rejects proportional representation. Marx at 200. Shelina eksplik kuma fer zasar lisu. How important is ethnicity in deciding elections? Our roads killed 6,716 in 50 years. Although it promised several one referendum would be a great start. Mauritian voters are quite mature. Why politicians want a dose of PR. Why we lost two decades on electoral reform. Division of votes should become standard parliamentary practice. Doing Business is a misnomer. PM presses ahead with plan to make us a banana republic. Worse than termites.

What's Worse Than Termites?

Why Division of Votes Should Become Standard Parliamentary Practice

And available in a spreadsheet on the website of our National Assembly. Simple. So we can know how each MP voted on each bill or motion. This will help us understand what the representatives we send to parliament stand for. And if her speeches are consistent with her voting pattern. This is useful information before getting in an election booth or deciding whether to trigger a recall election. See, who wouldn't want to know who was for the negative income tax, rise in old age pension and the ICT 'annoyance' law to name just a few?

Why Electoral Reform Got Sidetracked For a Couple of Decades

The first reason is that the really smart politicians who understood the dangers of proportional representation (PR) passed away thirty or more years ago and were not replaced by a crop of a similar calibre. SKJ and SSR died in 1985 while Renganaden Seeneevassen who was one of the fiercest critic of PR was gone even earlier – he died in the middle of 1958. The only politician of that generation who is still active is SAJ which would explain why he dubbed PR a komeraz. But then again he doesn't seem to fully understand all the risks of PR. This is reflected in the dangerous bill on electoral reform before parliament. It has failed to address the problems with government formation countries encounter when they add a dose of PR to a first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. And we definitely cannot count on Navin Ramgoolam and today's Labour Party to bring wisdom to the debate. They're deeply mired in trickle-down economics and bean-counting.

The second reason is terms of reference (TOR) that were too narrow. From Sachs to Sithanen only PR solutions were considered although better non-PR solutions exists. There was even a brief attached (see screenshot) by the MMM to the TOR of the Sachs commission. It's fine to raise an eyebrow. The big plus of course is the internet. Ideas can spread a lot faster than before in our hyperconnected world.

The Real Reason Politicians Want Dose of PR

It's not because they want more women in parliament. Legislation can be passed within our current first-past-the-post (FPTP) system to have female candidates represent at least one-third of the candidates. It's not to remove the obligation for candidates to categorise themselves into one of the four categories of the best loser system (BLS) either as we just need to chop this section off our constitution to do that. Besides the BLS is not subsumable. It's not to specifically correct the big imbalances that were generated in four of the last 11 general elections because these can be handled in a way that doesn't take away any of the huge benefits of the FPTP. Plus we need to remember that three of the four lopsided results collapsed before 21 months.

So what's the reason for a dose of PR and increasing the size of a parliament that voters across party lines already find way too big? Easy. To create a class of MPs that's a lot more difficult to remove in a general election as shown in the chart above.

Make sure your MP knows you don't want this. 

How You Know the BLS is Not Subsumable

That's easy. Just check the democracy-shrinking bill on electoral reform that the PM will be bringing to parliament tomorrow. If a party doesn't line up at least 1/3 of women or men (see p6) it will lose its party status and will therefore not get any proportional representation (PR) seats. If a PR-MP crosses the floor his or her seat may be declared vacant under certain conditions. Clearly these are sanctions. But look for one if you don't line up candidates from more than one community and you will find none. Are there sanctions if names on the party lists don't reflect some of our diversity? Nope. Any sanctions if the best loser seats as defined in the dangerous proposal are attributed to members of one community? Ziltch.

We know that the BLS has deprived us of some really good oppositions. And that 50 years of progress is enough proof to do away with it because the best protection for any minority is policies that makes sense: progressive taxation, respect for the environment and solving national problems. But that's not what happening. Attempts are being made to fool us into believing that an autocracy will make us a united country. This is also what Rezistans ek Alternativ has effectively been doing for several years.

How Mature Are Mauritian Voters?

Quite mature and increasingly so. We just need to look at the calm environment in which our elections take place. Plus voters have proceeded with five changes of government (see 1) with four of these happening in the past twenty-three years. These were made a lot easier by our FPTP system which produced clear winners immediately in ten out of eleven general elections – it took a tiny bit more time to form a government in 1976. And given how we massively rejected the wicked plan of a scheming trio in December 2014 it is natural that proposed changes to our electoral system be put to us in a referendum and not decided in parliament as it smacks of a conflict of interest. Especially when they will seriously blunt a weapon we've used to keep several politicians out of our National Assembly including the five who have been our PMs. And open the door for all kinds of additional abuse in these times of passport sale and ministerial eye-test.

6,716 Road Fatalities in 5 Decades

As the chart shows fatalities increased by about one-third as from the third decade and pretty much stayed at that level since then. Which roughly coincides with the time we've been stuck in the middle-income trap – half of which we've been in the flat-tax trap.

Lepep Had Promised Several Referendums

In its electoral manifesto (see p7). The PM should forget about several and instead organise one with some crucially important questions like in the chart below. I can't think of more important issues like tax structure and electoral reform. We know what the flat tax has done to the finances of our government and to the country. We are also aware how lucky we are to have such a good constitution. Hey, it has produced clear winners immediately after 10 out 11general elections and stable government after stable government. That's no small benefit for a SIDS like us. Plus we are very mature voters. We have handled five changes of government with four of these happening in the past 23 years. No small feat. So ask us what we think. And get our permission.

Organising a referendum will also bring two major advantages to Lepep. The first one is to avoid a catastrophe in a year by getting precious feedback from voters now for an immediate course-correct. The second one is to be the first government to organise a referendum. That's some bragging rights. If the questions are genuine that is.

Eski Etnisite Pli Gro Fakter Dan Eleksyon Zeneral?

Dan enn interviu an Fevriye 2014 dan Mauritius Times Sithanen dir ki etnisite eksplik ant 65% a 70% rezilta sak eleksyon an mwayenn ek li finn al ziska 85% trwa fwa ek ant 50% ek 55% pu de 60-0. Li ti osi dir ki sa zame pu sanze. Nu rapel usi ki li ti prevwar ki Ptr/MMM ti pu gayne par 60-0 parski "40% + 40% = 80%". Pa bliye ki li ti sanz sirkonskripsyon. Li ti kit nimero 18 kot li ti for pu al dan nimero 13. Si linn buz dan nimero 13 se sirma pu bann rezon etnik parski samem fakter pli inportan dapre li. Amwin li kwar ki dimunn laba pa kone ki li ti fer ar lintere labank. Ek se sirman pu bann mem rezon etnik ki li ti poz dan nimero 18 plizir fwa.

Be kuma li eksplike ki linn tronp li par 47 siez pu Desam 2014, ki li mem finn perdi so siez ek ki Ramgoolam ek Boolell pa finn eli alor ki zot ti eli dan zot sirkonskripsyon sinq ek sis fwa dafile? Lot zafer se kifer li pann poz so kandida dan nimero 18 an Desam 2017? Drol usi ki pann truv li lor lestrad Ptr ant 2015 ek preske lafin 2017 non? Ek kifer li pann gayn tiket an 2010 uswa poze kuma indepandan swa dan nimero 18 ubyen dan nimero 13? Anfet li ti dekrir sa bayantaz la kuma pli gran trayizon politik (lol!). Be si sa ti vre li ti kav prezant li divan lelektora ek nu ti va gete si pa li ti pu fer enn top skor kuma Dayal an 2000 (Dayal ki ti perdi so job kuma komiser lapolis ti pu eli si mwins ki 300 dimunn ti vot li olye Daureeawoo).

Bon se vre ki se pa promye fwa ki li ti pe montre ki li pa tro for dan analiz. Pa limem ti dir nu pu gayn krwasans 8% si bes taks kuma linn fer a partir 2006 (mank omwin 300 milyar rupi dan lakes guvernman par rapor a so previzyon)? Apre nunn truv so reform elektoral: enn veritab galimatia danzere. Sa zafer etnik la se enn diversyon pu ki zot kav kontinye kul Moris ek bann politik ki favoriz zot ek zis enn ti ponye dimunn.

Zot pe gayn traka parksi dimunn zot lizye pe uver de plis an plis. Dernye de reklam se Desam 2014 ek Desam 2017. 

Strong Fingers Needed

Galbraith At 110

The first time I heard about him was when I saw my dad showing a couple of the books of the great economist to some people in his study – which also served as living room. I was probably watching Spiderman – thank you Stan Lee – but kept an eye on what they were doing. You know just in case the massive personal library did have some cartoon books somewhere. It looked like he was a fan. How could he not be? They were both curious writers, sharp observers, had designed policies and even spent a fair amount of time in India.

I think the first JKG book I read from cover to cover was The Great Crash and funnily enough I read it in 1987 a year in which the Dow Jones collapsed by 508 points in a single day. It didn't take long to like the guy and learn plenty of stuff. For example it is in one of his books that I learned that we owe the sentence the survival of the fittest not to Charles Darwin but to Herbert Spencer. Elsewhere that trickle-down economics aka supply-side economics was in fact the horse and sparrow theory of the 1890s. It was obvious that Ken had read an extremely large amount of stuff. And it is important to read him to get the big picture, avoid groupthink and develop enough of self-preserving wit.

I always wondered if my dad and Galbraith had met. Thanks to Assange I found out that he was trying to get him to visit Mauritius back in 1974. They probably have. When I feel nostalgic about JKG I go read this obituary to be reminded that it takes several versions for a text to feel right and that spontaneity doesn't arrive before the fourth day. November 15 also turns out to be the birthday of another great: Guy Rozemont.

Waters Squeezes in Perfectly Legal Message

Last night in Curitiba, Brazil. See, it was unlawful to campaign after 22h00 so at 21h58 a multi-part message appears on the concert screen to remind fans of this fact and to urge them to prevent fascism from taking over their country in the general election today. Also included in the message was the slogan used to motivate the movement against seeing Bolsonaro occupying the Planalto in the coming days: Ele Não! (Not Him!). Not too sure that this attempt of the 75-year old rockstar will be enough though as the right-wing candidate still has a double-digit lead over his rival, Mr. Haddad. Indeed the fact that Brazil has just been in one of its worst recession ever and the law and order situation seemed to have got out hand – 17 of the 50 cities with the worst crime rates are in the huge South-American nation – doesn't favour the election of candidate of Lula's party.

Marine Le Pen must be watching all of this and thinking she'll be calling the shots in about three and half years. And blessing failed policies.

What do you think the flat tax is eventually going to make happen in Mauritius?

Les Shelina Montre U Kuma Fer Zasar Lisu

Monn seye ena inpe letan. Pa ti mal ditu. U kav aste zepis zasar fini prepare si u pale kraz lor ros kari u dan graynder. Mo prefer long pima ver ek mo met li an dernye pu li res ferm ek li fer mwa kone li la ler mo manz mo dipin zasar. Enn lot ti zafer ki u kav fer se azut enn ti kuyer delwil mutard pu aranz so gu ankor plis.

Getting a Handle On Electoral Reform Has Never Been Easier

Understanding the issues of electoral reform is very important because it sets the rules of the political game. But just like with anything else there is a minimum investment of energy and time required to figure them out. That can be more difficult than it should have been when you have a biased media putting intellectually dishonest politicians with a giant skills-mismatch like Sithanen on a pedestal. It doesn't help either that the Labour Party is currently in the darkest phase of its history.

So the above table will be quite handy to bring a maximum of voters up to speed with the three principal options. Both the Sithanen (RS/NR/PB) and the Pravind Jugnauth proposals would have increased the number of additional MPs we had over the last eleven general elections by over one hundred – the actual numbers would be between 124 and 168. They would also have made government formation a lot more difficult and led to unstable governments and to more governments with much shorter durations – you can bet we would have ended up with a lot more than 11 of them. These proposals would basically turn the plutocracy we're in into an autocracy afflicted with a perpetual political crisis. 

The last proposal is one which I've worked on for the past eight years with most of the interesting work done in the past four. It starts with our current system and makes use of the important insight that the problem of large imbalances between vote share and number of MPs in the FPTP system can be recast as one of an opposition that's below a minimum size. Which is why unlike PR-based systems it allocates additional seats only to candidates that are not in the winning alliance and only when there's not enough MPs in the opposition. It also recommends three tools to deepen our democracy. Find out more about these and its other features.

Karl At 200

So he got the boom and bust cycles and inequality right but missed the ability of capitalism to reform itself and the establishment of welfare states which boosted upward social mobility and improved lives. He didn't foresee Marxist regimes killing people on a horrendous scale either. After ideology had become an opium or tool of deception for too many of his followers. But the most interesting thing about Marx was the healthy dose of scepticism he kept about ideas including his own (read with a free subscription). He was relatively unknown during his life with between nine and eleven people attending his funeral.

The MMM started out as a Marxist-Leninist party. Would you believe this? While a recent breakaway faction with interesting initials wants to privatise water.

Trudeau Rejects Proportional Representation

Just like voters here did in December 2014. And several decades before that. The Canadian PM says he understands that PR would harm his country. Basically what the Labour Party before 1982 understood.