Monday, March 9, 2015

Chinese Economy World's Largest, For 50 Years

After which it could be India's turn to grab the top spot. If we extrapolate the assumptions used in one article which appeared some four years ago. Of course forecasting over such long periods is usually fraught with errors. But that doesn't look too outlandish when we remember the size of the economy of 1960 China. Besides India had the world's largest economy for 1,700 of the past 2,000 years. And Lonely Planet reminds us that Pataliputra with a circumference of 33.8km was spaceship Earth's biggest city of the Mauryan empire. 2,500 years ago.

One bet looks safer than others. It's going to be Chindia for a long time. Which makes it all the more necessary for the two giants to sort out the problems on their 2,100-mile border.

8 comments:

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

WSJ has also looked at the matter today.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Nice animation about the changing of the econmic guards.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

The UK has poured 50+ times more FDI into India than has China over the last decade-and-a-half. Even Poland has done better than Zhongguo.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Interesting stuff in this speech by Shashi Taroor including how British rule decreased India's share of world GDP by 5/6.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Of course not everyone agrees with the role China will play in the years to come. Some found it "characteristically regional". Don't you just love it?

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

There could be another changing of the guard: in the Middle East and much sooner than Chindia. Indeed The Economist writes that Iran may become the largest economy in its region within 10 years now that sanctions are going to be lifted after the nuke deal.

I have to admit that I was quite surprised that Iran gets less than 1% of its electricity production from... solar energy.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

India is trying to catch up with China as far as border infrastructure goes.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

The latest update of the PwC report: E7 will be a lot larger than G7 even on an market exchange rate basis. Nice companion to long-term strategic analysis.