Platform Komun Syndikal Fin Ekrir A Ban Parlmanter

Dan en let sinq paz, zot fin explike, sif a lapwi, ki BRP e nu welfer steyt sutenab me seki pa sutenab se sa pwazon de flat tax 15% ki Sithanen ti servi popilasion apartir 2006. Zot fin dir ki rasio BRP/GDP ki fin okip deba piblik dernie 13 mwa pu bese ek en BRP de 100 milyar rupi an 2035 pu tu to krwasans aniel mwayin siperyer a 2.2% ki en to vreman insinifian konsideran potansiel Moris.

PKS fin osi expos dega katastrofik ki flat tax 15% Sithanen in fer a Moris depi 2006 e kuma sa fin fer an sort ki nu lekonomi de fwa edmi pli tipti ki seki li bizin ete an 2026.

PKS fin osi fer plizir propozision pu ogmant reveni guvernman e fin termin let la par dir ki zot ti va prefer ena ban konsiltasion sinser ek guvernman e fer ban parlmanter remarke ki laful dan manifestasion le 11 Ziyet 2026 dan Por-Lwi in fini vot pu en lagrev zeneral.

U kav lir let la isi.

How Our Offshore Treaty Risk Became a Much Bigger Problem

With 640m multidimensionally poor people in India in 2005-6 and the internet making millions a lot smarter it was natural that the pressure to renegotiate the DTAA with Mauritius would increase significantly. So it was sheer stupidity for one bean-counter to flatten our tax structure to a rate (15%) that has caused serious damage to our economy in order to build a facade of low-tax jurisdiction. Besides we never voted for this crap aka Paglanomics or if you prefer Shaitanomics in 2005. Killing our savings culture was not exactly another smart move. Neither was gifting a sunset industry €138m — its weight in the economy was more than six times smaller at the end of 2018 (0.5%) than it was in 2005. Add the severance of the link between what we pay for oil and what it costs on the world market and stupid hire-fire laws to understand why we’re heading into a wall. 

And a few days ago he uttered more rubbish including that without our Global Business (GB) sector — this is where he’s been working for many years — our currency would maybe have been trading at Rs50 to the USD. Scare tactics by Dr. TINAnen. But as the chart shows it took only five years from the inception of that sector for our rupee to lose a quarter of its value and a further five to shed almost another 25% of the average value it had in 1992 — an index of the dollar value of our rupee is used so that when the curve is going down it means our rupee is losing value with respect to the USD, makes it easier to visually estimate its percentage changes and we’ve added two horizontal lines to show two values of our rupee relevant for our discussion here in the format you’re used to seeing it. 

This chart will also help put the myth that Ringadoo was a bad Minister of Finance because he devalued the rupee by 30% and 20% in a better perspective. See our rupee lost 55% of its dollar value between 1992 and 2015 in an economic environment that was incomparably better. In fact we would probably have hit another dismal low had there not been a BoM Governor who knew what he was doing between 2007 and 2014 to resist energetically an incompetent Minister of Finance who when asked why the rupee had been depreciating rapidly replied that it had not depreciated for a long time. For sure current trade imbalances reflect to a great extent the generalised policy-making failure of the past dozen years. Our rupee will enjoy better days as soon as we get our act together. Just like India who had by 2015-6 reduced the number of poor people by 271m.

Tiger @50

Did that super fast today. So basically we defused the demographic bomb, diversified our economy and became a Republic. We did a terrific job planning and implementing things at least between 1968-82. We should be thankful to our excellent constitution and FPTP system which have provided the stability necessary to have a fair chance of being a lot more than a country without a future.

Things have deteriorated significantly as from 2005 when a flat tax was introduced using three lies. This has caused everything to slow down and attracted the wrong FDI and people. Poverty and inequality have increased tremendously. The other big risk we're facing now is that there are attempts to turn our Republic into an autocracy with undemocratic devices such as a second republic, party lists and double candidacies.

Let's take our beautiful country back!

P.S. Click on the pic to see it better. Consider it as work in progress. And please note that the 30% for sugar in 1968 is an estimate.

Free Education Turned 40 in January

I was planning to have a write-up coincide with the anniversary of this crucially important national event. It just didn't happened. Got quite busy on Kozelidir: this is post no. 123. Haven't posted this much in five years. Also the thirteen pieces on The Jag! this year -- a new record -- took a lot of time and effort. You can imagine how much when you read some of these essays and when you consider that only ten such posts were published over three-and-a-quarter years. Still I am not about to let 2017 disappear forever without saying a couple of things.

First is that some people consider Free Education -- for secondary and university students -- as an electoral bribe that was bound to happen after students gathered on the GRNW bridge. Since when does mindfulness always happen after a protest? Our youth took to the streets in May 1975 while the beautiful electoral pledge was announced seventeen or eighteen months later. We know who implemented free education. You may not know who came up with the idea. Returning to pledges wasn't Lepep elected on the promise of a second 'economic miracle'? Still waiting for it eh? Let's not forget Navin Ramgoolam who promised to Put People First but ended up putting most of us last. Or Sithanen who told us poverty would disappear by 2015. Saying something is one thing. Doing it quite another.

The other thing is that granting Free Education was consistent with the extraordinary stuff accomplished by that generation of Mauritians who were born between let's say 1900 and 1945. You know the great people who proved Meade wrong and build the welfare state. Among them a couple of people really stood out: Kher Jagatsingh and his biggest fan, Seewosagur Ramgoolam.

Here's what KJ -- who many consider as the hardworker who has contributed the most to the advancement of Mauritius -- had to say about the implementation of Free Education:

"When almost by accident and force of historical circumstances, I was offered the portfolio of Education and Cultural Affairs in January 1977, I was already aware of the long and arduous task that awaited me. It was a crucial and decisive time to be Minister of Education and Cultural Affairs. This colossal task of reform and development was a real challenge, the like of which I had never faced before."

Phenomenal work doesn't always get recognised overnight.

Sithanen Worried About Inequality

That was at a LP rally about a week ago. That's kind of funny when we look at his track record. The household budget survey (HBS) of 95/96 -- he was the finance minister for most of the 5-year period covered -- tells us that the poorest 10% families saw their share of GDP decrease by 13%. In fact all households saw a fall in their share of GDP except the 10% richest. The latter group bagged a 10% increase.

Fast forward 16 years and what does the 2012 HBS say? That the weakest 10% of our fellow citizens experienced a 14.7% fall in their share of the national cake. The next-to-weakest 10% also witnessed a double digit decrease. In fact not only did the bottom 70% of households not see their share increase or stay constant but these fell to 20-year lows. For example for the first time the share of the 10% poorest fell below 2%. The 2012 HBS captured the first five years of the Sithanen flat tax which is the worst form of trickle-down economics. Although he was denied a ticket in 2010 because he had badly mauled Mauritius he was still the one who had been the FM for the greatest part of the five-and-half year period.

The 2012 survey also highlights the fact that an extra 22,000 people were thrown into poverty by the policies of Rama Sithanen. That's more than one in every six poor people at the end of 2012. We can also compute changes in real disposable income to get some more perspective. As the chart below shows the 10% poorest saw an increase of only 6.7% over the five and half years ending in 2012 while the top 10% saw an jump of 30.2%. Compare that to the numbers of the 2001-2 HBS.

So Sithanen is the last person to be worried about inequality given how much of it he has created. And his return to the Labour Party will make it really easy to keep Ramgoolam, Boolell and himself out of parliament for another five years starting in 2019. For more in-depth analysis have a look at Who's the Better Cake-Cutter? and Why Poverty is Winning?

December 17 Likely To Be A Trailer For 2019

Voters are basically fed up with the traditional parties. They will not put Ramgoolam back in power simply because they're not happy with Lepep. Or Berenger for that matter. Nope, they're more likely to vote for good candidates. So expect to see Lindsey Collen and other candidates worthy of our votes in Parliament after the next general elections.

Of course Jack Bizlall might not have to wait that long given that he is the best option in the forthcoming by-election. No other candidate has anything that comes close to the breadth of his experience and his ability to bring back common sense to our Parliament. Indeed people who usually vote for one of the parties that spend a lot of money in an election agree: "Bizlall pu met enn bon lord dan Parlman. Kot inn arive la sa mem ki bizin." or "si dimunn servi zot lespri zot pu vot Bizlall". And "mo pu donn li mo vot parski linn defann dimunn tut long so lavi."

Hard to disagree when we see week after week how there's practically no dissent at all in our Parliament. Just way too many people who are in government or striving to be in it so they have the privilege of sinking Mauritius. Further. But after December 2014 when mountains of money and dumb simulations were not enough to push a wicked plan to turn our country into a banana republic down the throat of increasingly sophisticated voters we shouldn't be surprised to see Mr. Bizlall return to our National Assembly. In a few weeks.

Why India Missed The Industrial Revolution

A little bit of history doesn't hurt. Funny that some people here who had seen the declassified notes of the British PM Harold Wilson – just like anybody with an internet connection – seem to take them at face value. That is the independence of Mauritius was automatic and SSR loved to be called Premier. They seem to think that the Leader of the LP came to the negotiation table mostly unprepared. SSR and unprepared??? He also took his General Secretary to London even though that guy had lost his seat in the 1963 general elections. By 96 votes. Probably to cheer the latter up as he'd always wanted to go to Trafalgar Square.

Momentum Builds for Unique Candidate of Common Sense

In the forthcoming by-election in No. 18. Something interesting is brewing. Finally.

Ki Piariv Nu Peyi?

Samem promye zafer enn kamwad finn dimann mwa zordi. De pli an pli dimunn pe truve ki kondisyons pe deteryore Moris. Revelasyons komisyon lor ladrog pe fer nu konpran lanpler fleo la. Konbin sa ek inegalite ek povrete ki flat tax Sithanen ek bann lezot politik pagla finn kree: 44 fwa plis dimunn finn tom dan la povrete ant 2007 ek 2012 ki ant 1997 ek 2002 – 22,000 kont 500. Ek lor 11 banane mank 1,000 milyar rupi dan prodiksyon nasyonal. Proliferasyon bann kazino ek lezot gambling house dernye 10 an finn anpir la sityasyon sirtu kinn etabli bann lyen ant rezo ladrog ek lindistri zugader. Azut depresyasyon rupi ek bann lezot politik dan dife pu u konpran kot nun arive ek kot nu pe ale.

Deza ki Moris nu ti setiem peyi kot litilizasyon lopium par kapita pli elve dan lemond. Nu bat Pakistan ki vwazin ek Afganistan – pli gro konsomater par kapita dan lemond – ek wityem. Devine kisana dernye. Pa tro difisil konpran kifer nu enn sanpyon dan brain drain. Bann seki sanpyon dan admir zot lonbri apel sa skills mismatch.

FMI truve ki lekonomi robis. Mo dimann mwa kot zot pran rasyon. 

Why are Thousands Taking to the Streets in Hamburg?

Because they're worried about the climate and inequality. And why are people doing the same thing in Brazil? They are sick of seeing several corrupt politicians pocketing giant kickbacks while asking them to make sacrifices and swallow more austerity measures. Like pushing back the retirement age and putting a ceiling on pension benefits.

Not very different from what happened in North Africa less than a decade ago. In Mauritius too trickle-down economics has broken the economy and inequality has reached levels never seen before. This is simply not sustainable.

Heads Roll As May Tries to Form Minority Government

With the help of the DUP. That might not be enough as there have been calls for her resignation within her own party. Jeremy Corbyn is also making plans to form an even smaller minority government. Brits may have to vote again if 2/3 of the MPs so decide or if two different minority governments don't survive a no-confidence motion.

Corbyn ran an effective campaign and promised to "...build a Britain that works for the many, not the few." This included following a worldwide trend of bringing back utilities under public ownership because "...water bills have increased 40 per cent since privatisation, and our private energy providers overcharged customers by £2 billion in 2015."

Poll Finds Nobody is Satisfied With Lepep

11 out of the 12 participants were not satisfied at all. They have many reasons not to be.

Union Leaders Say Mauritian Workers Discriminated Against

Two Extra Dumb Reasons We Need Party Lists

One is that if there's a party that gets the most votes but not a majority of the seats that could be a "recipe for political riots and civil unrest". Voters in Mauritius don't give two hoots about vote share. They just pick the best candidates in every riding. Doesn't matter if they're from three different parties. And the party which elects the most candidates forms government. That's it. Of course a party can grab power without getting the most votes. That's definitely possible given how the number of voters in our constituencies vary. In 2014 the largest (No.14) was 2.71X bigger than the smallest (No.3). But we couldn't care less.

Besides the recipe for riots and unrest is well known: poverty and inequality. Like we saw one spring six or seven years ago across North Africa and the Middle East and next door. We even had a former Minister in Tunisia at that time who had to stay indoors because of what was happening on the streets. It didn't look like the people were mad because they had trouble grasping how the D'Hondt method works.

The second mari dumb reason is that an electoral system is fair when it "ensures that the top guns of the parties are returned to the Assembly... On the other hand, the public would have considerable difficulties to understand constituency elections without the participation of these stalwarts; such contests would lose some of its “panache” and legitimacy [emphasis mine]."

So 22,000 people thrown into poverty over five years, record inequality, savings at a 30-year low and a trillion-rupee GDP gap because of a stupid and low 15% flat tax is panache? And we should return the massively incompetent and the toxic? The mess of the trickle-down garbage was big enough that no major party wanted to take the oversized and unnecessary risk of having the outgoing Finance Minister as their candidate in 2010. Which was a first. And he didn't even run as an independent candidate. Didn't get elected four and half years later either. That too after changing for a 'safe' riding.

God bless the FPTP.

Trickle-down Economics Doesn't Work

Oxfam Warns Unjust Society Not Sustainable

The recently published report has a number of interesting stats including:

1. 1% of the world's richest are wealthier than the remaining 99%
2. 8 men are as rich as the planet's 50% poorest
3. income growth for the bottom 50% has been zero over the last three decades while the top 1% have enjoyed a corresponding increase of 300%
4. it takes 10 years for the poorest person in Vietnam to earn what the richest person there makes in a day

The report also highlights how politics may be highjacked so that rules are written in favour of the 1%. I guess a bit like the Sithanen flat tax which has caused 22,000 Mauritians to be thrown into poverty over the first five years of Shaitanomics while incomes for the bottom 10% have risen five times slower than the corresponding income for the top 10%. There's also a trillion-rupee GDP shortfall and the very dumb policy of 'competitive depreciation' which has quickly dumped us into a recession -- in USD terms -- a mere three months after the December 2014 polls.

Mauritius in 2017

Thousands will again be denied a place in a secondary school because of a badly designed learning experience. Our roads will kill another 140. Eight or nine amputations will be performed every week or about 400 for the full year. Mauritius will shutdown around Saint Valentine as soon as we get some heavy rainfall. The CWA will announce harsher cuts right after. We will send a team to the IMO for the first time and get ready to participate in PISA 2018.

Roughly 1,000 people will be thrown into poverty. Every three months. Thanks to the trickle-down economics which has been going on for a decade now. The flat tax trap will cause the GDP shortfall to reach a trillion rupees about half of which would have happened on Lepep's watch. This will make government increasingly unpopular. Voters will keep on getting smarter. And that will be bad news for our political class. The water supply will improve as Bagatelle dam comes into operation in the second half of the year. Potential tragedy of a horrific number of fatalities during Porlwi by Light.

Quite a few of the bad events don't need to happen or can be mitigated. Like how does Mahebourg by Light sound? We could also avoid several road deaths if Lepep recognises that it might have acted in haste and brings an improved point system back.

10 Most Popular Posts in 2016

10. Brazil Crashes Out of Tiny Copa America Group

9. Usain Breezes Through The 200m Semis

8. What's New on The Jag!

7. Rio Olympics Are Excuse To Watch Gisele Walk

6. Galileo Arrives at Jupiter With Telescope in Hand

5. Ambassador Who Made Sure Many Kites Flew in the Air Passes Away

4. Robust Growth Targets Never Reached

3. How Long It Takes To Eradicate Poverty

2. A Trillion Rupees of GDP Missing, Almost

1. Basu Says Mauritius Doesn't Save Enough

Busy Year For The Jag!

Ten posts have been published in 2016 so far. So we returned after about a year (last time we took a pause of five years). Here's the gist of what we said.

Ramgoolam doesn't understand that FPTP, progressive taxation and spotting talent are core elements of the DNA of the Labour Party. Lutchmeenaraidoo shifts to Foreign Affairs but SAJ is in the mood for an economic miracle. Looks like voters are on track to resume one of their favourite habits.

Mauritius has far more important things to worry than Brexit. One such thing is the current Governor at the BOM. What the pound hasn't seen in 31 years we've seen here in the first 69 days of the return of Basant Roi. We showed how the Sithanen flat tax has spun public finances out of control and seriously damaged our economy. That of course provided Pravind Jugnauth with a great opportunity to bring some basic common sense back.

Mauritius is losing the battle against poverty because of the flat tax. Abysmal policy-making has transformed the economy into a machine that throws 1,000 people into poverty every three months. Little will change until policies start making sense again. The Minister of Finance fails to defuse a time bomb that is rapidly reaching a trillion rupees. Instead he presents a bland budget that will not take Mauritius anywhere we want to go. Tic tac. Tic tac.

We debunked a few myths about our excellent FPTP system. And we illustrate how wise voters are in ranking unsuccessful candidates. America can learn from our experience with trickle-down economics. The Duval Committee is like the 2014 Faugoo Committee. We formalise the concept of minimum opposition size which tweaks our excellent FPTP system in a mindful fashion to solve a couple of important problems.

2016: The Year in Review

Q1: Bowie dead. Rain shut downs Mauritius, again. Ish will sue investigators. What Labour DNA is made up of. Obama in Havana. Can't count on Vishnu for an economic miracle.

Q2: Pythaghoras in boots gone. Doves cry. Leicester does twice better than points target. Private sector has no monopoly of common sense. The Greatest dies. Union not exactly happy with former advisor. Top three general elections. Mauritius has more important things to worry about than Brexit.

Q3. Jesse passes away. Poverty far from being eradicated. Galileo hops to Jupiter with two buddies. Gisele walks. Usain bolts to record wins. Budget misses boat. Shoppers avoid meat. Policy errors cause for massive poverty. Quieting the clock of our constitution.

Q4. Trump chances are real. Two years gone and still no miracle. Unions stop signing of controversial TISA agreement. How much we can learn from the US election process. Sithanen toohrooh approaches a trillion rupees. Rain shortens Porlwi by light. The Donald is Potus.