Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts

Thursday, May 29, 2025

India in Overtaking Mood, Again


It's now the fourth biggest economy in the world in dollar terms after have said TTFN to Japan. Expect the gentle elephant to overtake Germany around October 2027 and then to take a pause of 36 years before climbing the last the two steps of the podium within a couple of years. China which has already the largest economy in PPP terms should start seeing Uncle Sam in its mirror in 2056 and stay in the top position for nine years. Before Tianzhu reclaims the spot it held during 85% of the last 2,000 years.

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

The Jag! After 2016

The last time we took stock of the output there we had just finished the fifth part in our series on electoral reform. Since then we've added four more pieces in that thread and thirty-nine other posts till now. There were no articles last year though, the first time since 2016 but it's not the longest drought period on that blog. I have a good excuse. 2024 looks better with already two and both of them are in kreol. The first one was an analysis on six pledges of the LP/MMM/PMSD alliance – it uses four of our clips – and the last on why six titans of the Mauritius Labour Party are unlikely to vote for Navin Ramgoolam in 2024 or for the other two main parties for that matter.

Of course Covid-19 happened during this 7-year period which explains why we had pieces on the vaccination status and jabs to buy in 2022 after we had become less ignorant about viruses. That was also the year of the 75th anniversary of India's independence. We published one piece on the Gentle Elephant when it was Midnight on August 15 in Bharat. Two days earlier we wrote a post on faith which started with a tribute to an extraordinary actor that said goodbye during the pandemic. We also investigated who's been the longest-serving General Secretary of the MLP. 

Other pieces included celebrating the 90th anniversary of a maverick, the Pope's visit, ideas to roll back drug use, an interesting piece on transport policy, comments on the offerings in the 2019 general election, fact-checking a toxic politician, decolonisation, the Central Water Authority, the World Bank and economic miracles. Plus one on the importance of the national currency in determining the wealth of a nation and another on an infamous anniversary. And more.

That's a lot of good stuff to read don't you think?

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

YJHD @ 10


Ayan Mukerji's 2013 Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani is as of today the 44th highest-grossing Indian movie of all time. Although that's 23 spots lower than his Brahmastra released last year, he disclosed that people still stopped to discuss about YJHD with him. It's such a fun and well-done movie. The chemistry between former lovebirds Ranbir Kapoor and Deepika Padukone is amazing. The good news is that AM has been working on a script for a sequel for a while.

Saturday, January 28, 2023

Gas Chambers Not Essential For Holocaust


The British didn't need one to kill 35 million Indians. The Turks didn't need one to slaughter 1.5 million Armenians. The Pakistani army didn't need one to murder 3 million citizens of Pakistan. The Germans didn't need one in Namibia. The French didn't need one in Algeria. And that's not even an exhaustive list. For all this reasons the UN should remember all Holocausts on January 27, not just one.

Friday, March 26, 2021

50 Years Ago, Tens of Millions of Muslims Free Themselves From Pakistan

On 26 March 1971, East Pakistan declared independence from Pakistan after armed forces perpetrated a massacre at Dhaka University. A few months earlier, the Awami League of Mujibur Rahman, a party in what is now Bangladesh, secured enough seats in the first free and fair general election in the country after the 1947 independence to form the government of Pakistan. But Ali Bhutto and the political/military leaders in West Pakistan, current day Pakistan, didn’t want to transfer power. Instead they eventually sent in the army with the objective to “kill three million of them and the rest will eat out of our hands”.

As a result of the chaos 10 million people fled to India creating a mammoth humanitarian crisis – the largest refugee camp in human history – in an already overpopulated country that was slowly emerging from a devastating British Raj. This led to India’s RAW training some of these refugees and sending them across the border to fight back the oppressors. Nevertheless the Pakistani army went on a massive killing spree for almost nine months. An estimated 3 million people died, 300,000 women and girls were raped. This event is known as the Bangladesh genocide. 

It ended after Pakistan bombarded India and the latter retaliated and won the war in 13 short days. Which explains why Indian PM Narendra Modi was the chief guest in the capital of the 87%-Muslim 160-million-people country today. But in 1971 it was an “avatar of Goddess Durga” who was at the helm of the subcontinent. 

Friday, January 29, 2021

T-Series is the Most Viewed Channel on YouTube

When I saw that Shakira’s channel on that platform – incidentally the second most visited website in the world – had reached an eye-popping 20 billion views I googled up the most viewed one. Wikipedia, which turned 20 exactly two weeks ago, lists the Indian music channel as the most popular with 141 billion views. And 170 million subscribers. If these subscribers were a country it would be the 8th or 9th most populous country in the world. Add another 100 million followers in the next couple of years and it will be breathing down on the neck of Indonesia which is on its way to become only the fourth country with a population exceeding 300 million. 

That shouldn’t be too difficult considering that seven eighths Indians are not subscribers yet and the subcontinent is on track to regain its status as the largest economy in the world which it held during 85% of the last 2,000 years. Having the largest diaspora and a 10,000-year old culture shouldn’t hurt either. 


Tuesday, August 6, 2019

How Our Offshore Treaty Risk Became a Much Bigger Problem


With 640m multidimensionally poor people in India in 2005-6 and the internet making millions a lot smarter it was natural that the pressure to renegotiate the DTAA with Mauritius would increase significantly. So it was sheer stupidity for one bean-counter to flatten our tax structure to a rate (15%) that has caused serious damage to our economy in order to build a facade of low-tax jurisdiction. Besides we never voted for this crap aka Paglanomics or if you prefer Shaitanomics in 2005. Killing our savings culture was not exactly another smart move. Neither was gifting a sunset industry €138m — its weight in the economy was more than six times smaller at the end of 2018 (0.5%) than it was in 2005. Add the severance of the link between what we pay for oil and what it costs on the world market and stupid hire-fire laws to understand why we’re heading into a wall. 

And a few days ago he uttered more rubbish including that without our Global Business (GB) sector — this is where he’s been working for many years — our currency would maybe have been trading at Rs50 to the USD. Scare tactics by Dr. TINAnen. But as the chart shows it took only five years from the inception of that sector for our rupee to lose a quarter of its value and a further five to shed almost another 25% of the average value it had in 1992 — an index of the dollar value of our rupee is used so that when the curve is going down it means our rupee is losing value with respect to the USD, makes it easier to visually estimate its percentage changes and we’ve added two horizontal lines to show two values of our rupee relevant for our discussion here in the format you’re used to seeing it. 

This chart will also help put the myth that Ringadoo was a bad Minister of Finance because he devalued the rupee by 30% and 20% in a better perspective. See our rupee lost 55% of its dollar value between 1992 and 2015 in an economic environment that was incomparably better. In fact we would probably have hit another dismal low had there not been a BoM Governor who knew what he was doing between 2007 and 2014 to resist energetically an incompetent Minister of Finance who when asked why the rupee had been depreciating rapidly replied that it had not depreciated for a long time. For sure current trade imbalances reflect to a great extent the generalised policy-making failure of the past dozen years. Our rupee will enjoy better days as soon as we get our act together. Just like India who had by 2015-6 reduced the number of poor people by 271m.

Saturday, April 13, 2019

A Hundred Years Later, Amritsar Still Awaits Apology



Elizabeth II has been there. David Cameron too. But so far no apology. A kniefall à la Willy Brandt for the massacre that helped liberate India would be a good start. And give the British an opportunity to come to terms with the atrocious role they've played in the loss of millions of lives in one or more Indian famines. 

Thursday, April 11, 2019

A Polling Station Atop Mont Blanc, Almost

At 15,256 feet the one in Tashigang, Himachal Pradesh is now the world's highest and only 521 feet shy of the Franco-Italian roof but 856 feet higher than nearby Hikkim, the previous record-holder. One of over a million polling stations it has been set up for any of the 48 people that are allowed to vote there on May 19, the last of seven days of voting in the 2019 Indian general election. But it will not be as exclusive as the one erected in a remote Gujarati forest solely for Mahant Darshandas.

There will be an extra 85 million eligible voters -- roughly the population of Germany -- bringing the total to 900 million who will be tasked to elect 543 MPs in as many single-member constituencies (SMCs). 543 is unchanged from 5 years earlier -- our local political bonobos should take good note. India will have to wait for the 2029 election to cross the billion-voter mark. By that time she would have just overtaken China as the most populous country on spaceship Earth.

Voting starts today. Results will be proclaimed on May 23.

Saturday, January 5, 2019

How Big Should Our Parliament Be?

Certainly not larger than the 66-70 MPs it can have under the current system. Increasing it by 50% to over 100 or even by 11-15 as the PM would like to is out of the question. Justifying a bigger National Assembly (NA) because our population has doubled since 1968 is problematic for at least two reasons. One is that according to Google or an interpolation of decennial census figures the number of inhabitants in Mauritius has in fact increased by only 58%. Two is that the size of our NA rose by 75% between 1963 and 1967 while the number of citizens increased by a mere 9%. Interestingly using the 1963 as base year yields a parliament of 70 which is how big it is today. 

It's way better that we compare our population/MP ratio to those of other countries. On this yardstick we do very poorly – more than 140 parliaments out of 195 do better than us. This is precious information as we can use it to find an optimal size for our NA. That's done in the chart and we've highlighted Denmark because 40 is kind of a natural number for us as this is how many MPs we sent in 1959 and 1963 when we had single-member constituencies.

The number of electors is not a useful measure either as this can increase with policy decisions – like it did in 1975 when the legal age was reduced by three years. Plus we shouldn't forget that the number of Indian electors increased by half a billion from 1977 to 2014 without any increase in the number of MPs. Besides we definitely don't want more MPs when we look at their average output especially when we know that each one costs us at least Rs2.6 million per year. What we need instead are recall elections.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Mauritius Discovers She Has An MP Called Tarolah

That was a few weeks ago. We also learned that he was a PPS. Mauritius found out about this obscure politician not because he made a game-changing contribution but because of what he did with his mobile. And while you would be hard-pressed to list half of the roughly seventy politicians that we sent to our National Assembly in 2014 it would not exactly be the first time. It would be an even bigger challenge to remember what they've contributed in making Mauritius better.

This is clearly a sign that our Parliament is way too big. And is costing us too much. It definitely highlights the absurdity of the suggestion that we need an extra 20 MPs to correct the lopsided outcomes that our excellent FPTP system produces on some occasions. It's silly for two reasons. One is that between 1977 and 2014 India has kept her number of MPs constant although the voting population there rose by half a billion. The other is that we can actually correct the imbalance by making our Parliament smaller. And that too without compromising the big advantages of the FPTP system or resorting to totally undemocratic devices like party lists and double candidacies.

Tuesday, October 31, 2017

30/3 and 3/5 Are Our 9/11s

11 people died on 30 March 2013 after 15 centimetres of rain fell on Port-Louis. That's 83% of the 2,996 people who died in the US on September 11, 2001 after adjusting for population. And 34 days later another 11 of our fellow Mauritians perished in a bus accident.

11 people dying in Mauritius is roughly equivalent to the 10,600 lives that were lost in India during the 2004 tsunami. So basically in 2013 we were hit by two deadly tsunamis within about a month.

We cannot forget what happened. Which is why we should refer to them as 30/3 and 3/5 so they stay in national conversations for as long as possible. Just like there is 26/11 for Mumbai and 7/7 for London.

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Why India Missed The Industrial Revolution



A little bit of history doesn't hurt. Funny that some people here who had seen the declassified notes of the British PM Harold Wilson – just like anybody with an internet connection – seem to take them at face value. That is the independence of Mauritius was automatic and SSR loved to be called Premier. They seem to think that the Leader of the LP came to the negotiation table mostly unprepared. SSR and unprepared??? He also took his General Secretary to London even though that guy had lost his seat in the 1963 general elections. By 96 votes. Probably to cheer the latter up as he'd always wanted to go to Trafalgar Square.

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Independence General Elections Turn 50

Tomorrow. The appropriately-named Independence Party won all the three seats in riding numbers 4 to 16. Which gave it 39 MPs out of the 62. The PMSD grabbed the remaining seats. The election results appear to contain some fascinating information on the mood of voters 50 years ago. Will need to play with them one of these days. Couldn't stop from reminiscing my meeting with the second member of Belle-Rose/Quatre-Bornes when I saw his name in there. That Independence thing was so big that he refused to obey the retrograde instructions of his leader of not attending the celebrations. That must have been quite easy to resist.

And a week from now partition of the Indian subcontinent will turn 70.