Voter turnout. For the last 5 general elections turnout in BR/QB has been between 74% and 81%. 74% is a 30-year low reached in December 2014. I don't have the turnout for by-elections. This will be the 10th by-election since our independence.
The LP/MMM alliance won all the three seats in 1995 with a vote range of 60% to 73%. In 2014 only one candidate of the LP/MMM team, Kavi Ramano, got elected and that too in third position. The vote range collapsed to 34% to 48%. Mr. Ramano is not in the MMM anymore while that party seemed to be really on the defensive. And Berenger's predictions have not been getting better.
There are at least two candidates from smaller parties who scored more than 10% in the last General Elections: Raj Madhewoo and Jack Bizlall. Electing one of them would be no big surprise as Dev Virahsawmy a relatively unknown candidate from a then one-year old party got elected in 1970. And let's not forget that one Vikram Hurdoyal from got 25% in 2014 in constituency no.10.
Voters have been getting more sophisticated over time. The internet has accelerated this process. Just consider the number of debates that we've seen in this campaign. There have also been some interesting initiatives like one candidate submitting a declaration of assets and two swearing affidavits. Plus voters managed to see through the dangerous plan of establishing a plutocracy in December 2014.
There is a widespread feeling that traditional parties have failed us. Lepep has been too scared to field a candidate although there was a natural campaign theme available for one of its parties to test the assumption that it had now become a national party. The MMM and the LP are very pale reflections of what they say they are and what they have been.
Money won't play a big role in this campaign. You saw how much money there was in the safe of one politician in 2015. That was at the end of the campaign for national elections. How much was spent? Yet he still suffered his first electoral defeat in twenty-three years. Imported crowds and fake polls won't vote. Neither will debates apparently constrained by studio size.
The LP/MMM alliance won all the three seats in 1995 with a vote range of 60% to 73%. In 2014 only one candidate of the LP/MMM team, Kavi Ramano, got elected and that too in third position. The vote range collapsed to 34% to 48%. Mr. Ramano is not in the MMM anymore while that party seemed to be really on the defensive. And Berenger's predictions have not been getting better.
There are at least two candidates from smaller parties who scored more than 10% in the last General Elections: Raj Madhewoo and Jack Bizlall. Electing one of them would be no big surprise as Dev Virahsawmy a relatively unknown candidate from a then one-year old party got elected in 1970. And let's not forget that one Vikram Hurdoyal from got 25% in 2014 in constituency no.10.
Voters have been getting more sophisticated over time. The internet has accelerated this process. Just consider the number of debates that we've seen in this campaign. There have also been some interesting initiatives like one candidate submitting a declaration of assets and two swearing affidavits. Plus voters managed to see through the dangerous plan of establishing a plutocracy in December 2014.
There is a widespread feeling that traditional parties have failed us. Lepep has been too scared to field a candidate although there was a natural campaign theme available for one of its parties to test the assumption that it had now become a national party. The MMM and the LP are very pale reflections of what they say they are and what they have been.
Money won't play a big role in this campaign. You saw how much money there was in the safe of one politician in 2015. That was at the end of the campaign for national elections. How much was spent? Yet he still suffered his first electoral defeat in twenty-three years. Imported crowds and fake polls won't vote. Neither will debates apparently constrained by studio size.
Did you notice that if you add the vote share of Boolell and Juddoo you get that of Ramano who was elected in third position in December 2014? Looks like an alliance of LP/MMM would still not be able to win all three seats if a general election was held now.
ReplyDelete