50.7% of the 152 voters said the MMM's alliance will be forming the next government vs. 49.3% for the Ramgoolam's alliance.
If we assume that each alliance will get at least 15 seats and trim three buckets on each extremity, we have 52.1% of the voters saying that Ramgoolam will be staying on as PM vs. 47.9% for Berenger taking over.
Finally, the two choices with the highest number of votes are Ramgoolam getting between 15-20 seats or 35-40 seats.
In its final analysis what does all that mean statistically? According to me, it means that each camp has one chance on two of winning the elections, that's all. Personally, I do not think that we can draw further inference from these results.
ReplyDeleteThere may be two main blocks but that doesn't mean they have an equal chance of getting elected.
ReplyDeleteWe have never had a hung parliament before although that doesn't mean we'll never get one.