Saturday, April 18, 2015

IMF Doesn't Trust Own Currency Valuations

As has been reported by the institution's Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) before. So if the currency models of the IMF have been found wanting I don't see how the Minister of Finance can use them to justify the sneaky double-digit depreciation orchestrated by the BoM. Here's a backgrounder to see clearer.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

The doc is not legible ....

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Just click on the image once or twice to make it readable. If that doesn't work right click on it to get the url (link) which you can then use to access the image in a larger format (and possibly make it bigger still with another click).

Anonymous said...

http://www.lexpress.mu/humeur

Are you big enough to challenge VL?

Some people think VL is not big enough, they could be right!

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Me? Nah, too small. You?

Anonymous said...

I'm fairly Big-small and Small-big.

How much did you invest at the BAI?

Anonymous said...

If we assume that we cannot control the Euro to Dollar exchange rate :) What would you have done? Euro to Rs 32 and USD at 30? or Euro at Rs 39 and USD at 36? Which is better for the economy of Mauritius?

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Are these the only two combinations possible? And is the Mauritian economy made up of only one sector?

Bheenick has over his governorship made several good speeches on this subject (links to some of them are available on this blog). Like he once rightly asked whether he should set the rupee so that the weakest exporter breaks-even.

Bloomberg had this to say about our financial sector yesterday. Make sure to read the part about the sneaky depreciation.
Anyway we shouldn't treat depreciation like a rare chutney.

Anonymous said...

Bheenick is certainly not a reference for me. Great talker. I would never have issued a bank license to Bramer with the IMF reports on BAI. I invest regularly on the stock exchange and always bought Bramer to sell a few days later (as it was always yoyo..ing). We can blame the IMF for a lot of things but the decision on Rs to Eur or USD conversion rests with the BOM/MoF. And I am happy with the current rates in the current circumstances.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

He is a reference for many right-thinking Mauritians though. And we can't really disagree with that when we look at his inflation record and the behavior of our rupee during his time. It was great not having a doormat at the head of the BoM. Hopefully we'll get a new Governor soon.

Anonymous said...

Bheenick certainly did not have to deal with a euro at 1.03 dollar. At the peak of the crisis (after 2008) Euro fell to 1.18 dollar....Bheenick could have and should have decreased the interest rates then (as the US did, Europe was too late in doing that)...may be not as this would have sent more poor people in BAI schemes (Maybe BOM had nothing to do with this! Anyway I am not a fan of the current governor and agree that we should have a younger guy to implement modern controls and regulations). Speaking of Bloomberg, I see a lot of bias in their articles. They predicted a landslide victory for Ramgoolam and they seem to be missing him (look at the pictures of Ramgoolam and Jugnauth on their site). lol.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Maybe not. But the baton was passed to him along with double-digit radioactivity. And RS aka wicked bean-counter along with Bretton Woods Ali were screwing Mauritius big time.

The IMF has seen its credibility decrease substantially with the blunders that it's been dishing out one after the other. And people are a lot smarter now with all the information available and the increase connectedness.

Guess also that Bramer Bank was not that weak as all it took to get it back on its feet is Rs200 million. Which is not a lot more than loans that apparently got written off for 'star witnesses' like Gooljaury.

Anonymous said...

http://www.lemauricien.com/article/mpc-la-depreciation-la-roupie-n-aura-pas-d-impact-notable-sur-l-inflation

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Le 22 inpe tar pu fer enn pwason davril sa.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Sinon Anonymous 21 avril 3h48pm, li byen interesan ki u pe rakont nu u bann day trading experiences me sorry se pa enn zafer deta sa. Apre vi ki u kontan kot valer rupi ete dapre lord u bizin swa

1) enn zozo maniok ki fer fut ki bann dizen de milyer de dimunn zot lavi vinn margoz
2) u enn GLD (enn fat cat e posibleman enn fat pig)
3) u pa tro kone ki u pe koze

fer enn ti pe u homework li pa pu move. u kav kumans par sa.

Anonymous said...

Mo penser qui nous ti pour trouve plus claire si nous ti guette ene graphique sa bane variables la.

Anonymous said...

Euro ti Rs 48 (2008) at its peak, Pound sterling Rs 65 (2007), ca qui ti appelle depreciation (sithanen et mansoor). Fin 2014, debut 2015, Dollar ine apprecier vis a vis euro et tous lezote currency apart Franc suisse. Qui BOM ti supposer faire? laisse dollar a Rs 32 et ramene euro a Rs 33? Touye l'industrie textiles, BPO et tourisme? Qui margoz ou pe cozer? Dimoune ine gagne Rs 600 augmentation minimum, retraites Rs 1000, bientot pou ena PRB...toujours margoz meme.

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Pound sterling ti reach so maximum under Basant Roi. Kuma Manou finn vini sitiasyon finn inverse imediatman si mo pa trompe. Nu lamone finn perdi 23 rupi pa raport a liv sterlin ek Basant Roi. Chart la interesan li montre usi performans rupi ler VL ek RS ti minis de finans.

Mo pa panse ki a Rs33/EUR nu lindistri turis ti pu mor. Parski se sir ki kav cut cost ek ki zot bizin amelior zot prodwi (enn pake finn res fize dan lezane 70 wadire). Eski Singapore ki so lamone finn apresye konstaman par rapor a USD finn gagn mwins turis ek finn export mwins? Non. Anfet li finn duble so nomb turis de 8 a preske 16 milyon an 9 banane. So exportasyon finn miltipliye par preske 4 fwa lor enn period de 16 banane (1987-2002).

BPO parey kuma tu lindistri bizin kontinye cut cost ek amelior zot lof. E vinn inpe pli rezonab lor kalite margin ki zot kav expect dan zot sekter daktivite. Ena lantrepriz definitivman pa bizin sov zot ek lezot bizin ferme.

akagugo said...

Sorry mo bourzwa, impe tro detay ou'nn donner-la...
Bann ki pann documente ape yap-yap wadir bann self-appointed expert, san check the facts, nek prend second-hand opinion pou deblaterer... nek ti bizin dir li: tension mam, ar nou non.
Lerr ou guett bien, se ziss enn lott viktim radioaktivite: lerr li realise ki so ti-kass en roupie pe perdi valerr, ek o-lie ki li reflesi, li al tom "victime de la mode" - nek copier bann GLD ki "investi" ek specule kontt roupie e apre krwaz tou le-dwa ki tou pou korek apre(c-a-d roupie pou vinn pliss "competitif") , sans guett consekans a lon-term lor big picture. Domaz, domaz...

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Me non. Sa finn permet mwa popom inpe lor blog. Ek relir sertin zafer. Ek konekte ankor plis pwin. Kinn donn mwa 3-4 bon lide pu apre. Donk pena perdi ladan ditu. Anplis si sa komanter la kav uver lizie inpe dimunn ankor li pa pu de tro.

Interesan seki u pe dir la. Li inpe parey kuma dan lalmagn 1930 kan dimunn ti pe pran bann ti avyon rampli ek kas pu al fer depot dan lond parski linflasyon domestik ti mari for. Isi moris efektivman dimunn perdi letan pu trase. Ek enn rupi stab u ki pe apresye lezerman plizumwin sak lane (si nu panse ki kolektivman nu pa bann piow) nu retruv nu dan enn lanvironman buku pli sin. Kot nu kav konsantre lor bann zafer ki vremem importan.

E buz divan.

Anonymous said...

eta pas to meme ti dire vote VL?

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Wi. Le 10 desam pa tiena swa. La nu le 4 mai la ein.

akagugo said...

Do you know what IMF economists do after retiring? This. In a country plagued with more than half of its children in poverty...

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

So essentially some keep on doing what they did at the IMF. That's also what one toxic bean-counter did. Or if you prefer percentages. And would explain why 'strategic alliances' were in the air at one point in time.

Bon les tusala ek ekut sa zwerr laflit la plito (tiek komanter anba clip la ler u fini ekut Pied Piper of Bretton Woods (sanla fer tu tang rant dan la vil).

Sanjay Jagatsingh said...

Pa kav konsider klip la sans get sa.